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Nafta vs Koper Result & Analysis

Date: 17/07/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 0-2
Nafta
Nafta
Vs
26%
25%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Koper
Koper
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Nafta a 26% win probability against Koper in the Slovenia: 1. SNL on 2026-07-17, with 25% for the draw and 49% for Koper. The model estimates around 3.2 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (83%).

Results analysis

Nafta finished 0-2 against Koper (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 26% home win, 25% draw and 49% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (83%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nafta win✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Koper win✓ Hit
49.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

NaftaNafta

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W20W21W20W10W21W12L11D00D10WH·DEK11/04A·TAB17/04H·BIS25/04A·ILI30/04A·BIL06/05H·BEL10/05A·BRI17/05H·TRI22/05A·PRI27/05H·PRI31/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.100.772.400.871.800.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.570.711.570.711.570.71
vs Weaker (16)2.560.813.121.002.000.62
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KoperKoper

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-442W01L11D40W31W30W32W10W10W21WA·ALU08/03H·CEL15/03A·BRA04/04A·PRI10/04H·MAR14/04A·RAD18/04H·OLI25/04A·MUR03/05H·ALU09/05A·CEL16/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.131.272.361.071.941.44
vs Stronger (4)1.501.501.502.001.501.00
vs Similar (14)2.291.432.710.861.862.00
vs Weaker (12)2.171.002.201.002.141.00
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.3%
Under 1.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.0%
Under 2.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.3%
No
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
1-2
9.5%
0-2 ✓
7.3%
0-1
6.9%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
6.2%
1-3
5.9%
0-0
5.3%
Nafta goals ↓
Koper goals →
01234
05.3%6.9%7.3%4.5%2.1%
14.5%11%9.5%5.9%2.7%
23.6%6.7%6.2%3.8%1.8%
31.6%2.9%2.7%1.7%0.8%
40.5%0.9%0.9%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nafta goals (down), columns = Koper goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.18
Nafta
2.00
Koper
1.97
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.61
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.58
Radomlje
1.32
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.26
Aluminij
1.06
Mura
0.91
Nafta is 0.03 points better than Koper in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.97).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.50
Koper
2.09
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.73
Radomlje
1.47
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.42
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.25
Aluminij
1.24
Mura
1.03
Nafta
0.50
Nafta is 1.59 goals worse than Koper in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 2.09).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.00
Celje
0.94
Maribor
1.21
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.21
Koper
1.26
Bravo
1.50
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.61
Mura
1.62
Aluminij
1.79
Radomlje
1.85
Nafta is 1.26 goals better than Koper in terms of goals conceded per game (0.00 vs 1.26).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

NaftaNafta

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

KoperKoper

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

NaftaNafta

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (6)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (20)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (24)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KoperKoper

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (8)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (22)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (20)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.2
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.8
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Celje
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Nafta vs Koper · H/A from NAF
DateH/AGameScore
27/04/25HNAF Vs Koper1-5
01/03/25AKoper Vs NAF0-0
03/11/24HNAF Vs Koper1-2
17/08/24AKoper Vs NAF3-0

NaftaNafta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/05/26HNAF Vs Primorje1-0
27/05/26APrimorje Vs NAF0-0
22/05/26HNAF Vs Triglav1-1
17/05/26ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs NAF2-1
10/05/26HNAF Vs Beltinci2-1
06/05/26ABilje Vs NAF0-1
30/04/26AIlirija Vs NAF0-2
25/04/26HNAF Vs Bistrica2-1
17/04/26ATabor Sežana Vs NAF0-2
11/04/26HNAF Vs Dekani3-0

KoperKoper

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/26ACelje Vs KOP1-2
09/05/26HKOP Vs Aluminij1-0
03/05/26AMura Vs KOP0-1
25/04/26HKOP Vs Olimpija Ljubljana3-2
18/04/26ARadomlje Vs KOP0-3
14/04/26HKOP Vs Maribor3-1
10/04/26APrimorje Vs KOP0-4
04/04/26ABravo Vs KOP1-1
15/03/26HKOP Vs Celje0-1
08/03/26AAluminij Vs KOP2-4

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Nafta
Nafta
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDDW1.96
HomeWWWDW2.16
AwayWWWLD1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%64%48%
AVG goals2.943.482.40
Over 1.5 %82%88%76%
Over 2.5 %48%64%32%
Over 3.5 %32%40%24%
Scored1.762.121.40
Conceded1.181.361.00
BTTS60%80%40%
Clean Sheet34%16%52%
Corners---
Cards---
Koper
Koper
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.92
HomeWLWWW2.27
AwayDWWWW1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%69%42%
AVG goals3.463.193.75
Over 1.5 %84%77%92%
Over 2.5 %64%62%67%
Over 3.5 %44%35%54%
Scored2.062.122.00
Conceded1.401.081.75
BTTS70%65%75%
Clean Sheet22%31%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1MariborMaribor59
40%
1.8
72+5
1.8
80%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5231.40.4
-
2CeljeCelje48
50%
2.0
74+3
2.8
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
7161.81.0
-
3BravoBravo58
40%
1.6
55+0
2.0
80%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
4NaftaNafta57
40%
1.4
108+2
3.6
100%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
5MuraMura57
40%
1.4
811-3
3.8
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
6KoperKoper56
20%
1.2
55+0
2.0
80%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3231.01.0
-
7AluminijAluminij45
25%
1.2
43+1
1.8
50%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.8
-
8Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje55
20%
1.0
57-2
2.4
100%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
9RadomljeRadomlje54
20%
0.8
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
10Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana54
20%
0.8
25-3
1.4
40%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6150.41.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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