Nafta vs Maribor Result & Analysis

Date: 30/08/2026

Time: 18:15

Final 2-3

Nafta

30%

28%

42%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Maribor

Slovenia: 1. SNL

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

Nafta’s recent run of two straight defeats has left them struggling at home, while Maribor’s unbeaten streak of five games, highlighted by a 3-1 win over Bravo, gives the visitors a psychological edge. The model favours an away win, with a 41 % chance, followed by a 31 % home win and a 28 % draw. The expected total is 2.7 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 26 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.3 % probability. Nafta averages one goal scored and three conceded against stronger opponents at home, whereas Maribor averages 1.2 goals scored and one conceded on the road against weaker sides. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6 %), Under 6.5 (97.9 % with a 7 % edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.1 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.5 % with a 7 % edge), Home under 3.5 goals (96.1 % with a 4 % edge), Under 5.5 (94.1 % with a 5 % edge), and Away under 3.5 goals (93.8 % with a 9 % edge).

Results analysis

The match saw Maribor extend their two-game winning run, while Nafta struggled after three straight defeats. The final score was 2-3, confirming the model’s pick of an away win, which it had forecast with a 42% probability. The model’s predictions were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6%, Under 6.5 at 97.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.5%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.8% and Under 5.5 at 94.0%. Each selection performed as expected, underscoring the model’s strong performance for this fixture.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nafta win✗ Miss

30.2%

Avg Implied 15.3% · @ 5.93

Edge

+14.9%

Best 5 market prices

BetVictor

6.50

1xBet

6.44

Bet365

6.25

Pinnacle

6.20

Marathonbet

6.20

Draw✗ Miss

27.8%

Avg Implied 21.4% · @ 4.24

Edge

+6.3%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

4.65

Dafabet

4.40

BetVictor

4.40

Betfair

4.33

Bet365

4.33

Maribor win✓ Hit

42.0%

Avg Implied 63.2% · @ 1.44

Edge

-21.2%

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.50

Unibet

1.48

Dafabet

1.48

Superbet

1.47

Pinnacle

1.47

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nafta

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.5

Avg scored

1.3

Avg conceded

1.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.90	0.90	2.13	1.13	1.67	0.67
vs Stronger (2)	0.50	2.00	1.00	3.00	0.00	1.00
vs Similar (17)	1.76	0.88	1.88	1.12	1.67	0.67
vs Weaker (11)	2.36	0.73	2.67	0.83	2.00	0.60
Clean sheet %	33% (+7pp vs league)

This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Maribor

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.5

Avg scored

1.5

Avg conceded

1.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.60	1.03	2.50	0.71	0.81	1.31
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (20)	1.40	1.20	2.33	0.89	0.64	1.45
vs Weaker (10)	2.00	0.70	2.80	0.40	1.20	1.00
Clean sheet %	43% (+17pp vs league)

This opponent (Nafta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

77.0%

@ 1.18-1.3%

Under 1.5

23.0%

@ 4.25+1.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.21

Betfair

1.20

Bet365

1.20

10Bet

1.20

Pinnacle

1.19

Under

Pinnacle

4.67

Betfair

4.50

BetVictor

4.40

Bet365

4.33

Marathonbet

4.20

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

51.6%

@ 1.62-5.8%

Under 2.5

48.4%

@ 2.18+5.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.65

Betano

1.65

Bet365

1.65

Superbet

1.63

10Bet

1.62

Under

Pinnacle

2.27

Betfair

2.25

10Bet

2.20

Bet365

2.20

1xBet

2.17

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

29.4%

@ 2.54-7.0%

Under 3.5

70.6%

@ 1.45+7.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

2.63

Bet365

2.62

BetVictor

2.60

Pinnacle

2.57

Betano

2.55

Under

Pinnacle

1.51

10Bet

1.48

Betfair

1.47

Betano

1.47

Bet365

1.44

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

56.4%

@ 1.74+3.3%

43.6%

@ 1.96-3.3%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Bet365

1.80

Superbet

1.76

1xBet

1.76

Marathonbet

1.76

Betano

1.75

William Hil

2.05

Betfair

2.00

Betano

1.98

Unibet

1.96

Superbet

1.95

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

13.2%@ 7.64+7.5%

1-2

9.0%@ 7.23+2.9%

0-1

8.5%@ 7.05+2.2%

0-0

7.7%@ 12.83+4.2%

2-1

7.4%@ 16.69+4.8%

0-2

7.3%@ 6.83+0.8%

1-0

6.8%@ 16.34+4.1%

2-2

5.6%@ 14.76+2.6%

Nafta goals ↓

	Maribor goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.7%	8.5%	7.3%	3.6%	1.4%
1	6.8%	13%	9.0%	4.5%	1.7%
2	5.0%	7.4%	5.6%	2.8%	1.0%
3	2.1%	3.1%	2.3%	1.2%	0.4%
4	0.6%	1.0%	0.7%	0.4%	0.1%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nafta goals (down), columns = Maribor goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Maribor

2.14

Celje

1.83

Koper

1.71

Bravo

1.57

Aluminij

1.14

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.14

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.14

Nafta

1.00

Mura

1.00

Radomlje

0.83

Nafta is 1.14 points worse than Maribor in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Maribor

1.86

Nafta

1.71

Celje

1.67

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.57

Radomlje

1.17

Bravo

1.14

Aluminij

1.14

Mura

1.14

Koper

1.00

Olimpija Ljubljana

0.43

Nafta is 0.14 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Maribor

0.71

Koper

0.71

Olimpija Ljubljana

0.71

Bravo

1.14

Aluminij

1.14

Celje

1.33

Radomlje

1.67

Nafta

1.71

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.71

Mura

2.00

Nafta is 1.00 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 0.71).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Nafta

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Maribor

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Nafta

Split	Corners			Cards			Fouls
Split	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy
Overall (50)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Stronger (7)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Similar (25)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Weaker (18)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
% over line	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	-	-	-
% under line	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	-	-	-

This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Maribor

Split	Corners			Cards			Fouls
Split	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy
Overall (50)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (31)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Weaker (19)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
% over line	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	-	-	-
% under line	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	-	-	-

This opponent (Nafta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game

Mura

11.1

Aluminij

10.1

Olimpija Ljubljana

9.7

Bravo

9.6

Celje

9.4

Koper

9.2

Maribor

9.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game

Aluminij

5.0

Celje

4.9

Maribor

4.7

Olimpija Ljubljana

4.7

Mura

4.2

Koper

4.0

Bravo

3.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game

Aluminij

27.0

Maribor

25.2

Olimpija Ljubljana

25.2

Celje

25.0

Koper

24.9

Bravo

24.7

Mura

24.2

Corners O/U 9.5

Over 9.5

51.3%

Under 9.5

48.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Cards O/U 3.5

Over 3.5

58.7%

Under 3.5

41.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Fouls O/U 21.5

Over 21.5

70.9%

Under 21.5

29.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

Nafta or Draw✗ Miss

58.0%

Avg Implied 36.8% · @ 2.49

Edge

+21.2%

30%

28%

42%

covers Nafta + Draw

Best 5 market prices

BetVictor

2.63

Betfair

2.63

William Hil

2.60

Betano

2.57

1xBet

2.53

Nafta or Maribor✓ Hit

72.2%

Avg Implied 79.3% · @ 1.16

Edge

-7.1%

30%

28%

42%

covers Nafta + Maribor

Best 5 market prices

William Hil

1.20

Betano

1.20

Bet365

1.17

Superbet

1.17

10Bet

1.15

Draw or Maribor✓ Hit

69.8%

Avg Implied 83.9% · @ 1.09

Edge

-14.1%

30%

28%

42%

covers Draw + Maribor

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.14

BetVictor

1.13

William Hil

1.12

Bet365

1.11

Superbet

1.10

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.

Nafta over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

71.0%

@ 1.56+12.1%

Under

29.0%

@ 2.25-12.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.62

BetVictor

1.60

Marathonbet

1.58

Betano

1.57

Bet365

1.57

Under

Betano

2.30

10Bet

2.30

Pinnacle

2.30

Unibet

2.28

Bet365

2.25

Nafta over/under 1.5Actual: Over

Over

35.1%

@ 3.77+10.6%

Under

64.9%

@ 1.23-10.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

4.10

Pinnacle

4.07

Marathonbet

3.96

Bet365

3.75

10Bet

3.65

Under

Betano

1.26

1xBet

1.25

10Bet

1.25

Bet365

1.25

Pinnacle

1.22

Nafta over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

12.9%

@ 8.71+2.3%

Under

87.1%

@ 1.03-2.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

9.10

1xBet

9.10

Superbet

8.60

Bet365

8.50

Betano

8.25

Under

Betano

1.05

Bet365

1.05

1xBet

1.02

Superbet

1.01

Nafta over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

3.7%

@ 14.75-2.7%

Under

96.3%

@ 1.01+2.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

17.00

Betano

12.50

Under

Betano

1.01

Maribor over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

77.7%

@ 1.08-7.6%

Under

22.3%

@ 6.26+7.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.11

Bet365

1.11

10Bet

1.08

Superbet

1.07

1xBet

1.07

Under

BetVictor

7.00

1xBet

6.70

10Bet

6.25

Bet365

6.00

Betano

5.90

Maribor over/under 1.5Actual: Over

Over

44.2%

@ 1.50-17.5%

Under

55.8%

@ 2.41+17.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.53

Betano

1.53

Pinnacle

1.51

10Bet

1.50

1xBet

1.50

Under

Pinnacle

2.57

BetVictor

2.50

Marathonbet

2.43

Betano

2.40

10Bet

2.40

Maribor over/under 2.5Actual: Over

Over

19.1%

@ 2.56-17.1%

Under

80.9%

@ 1.45+17.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.62

10Bet

2.60

1xBet

2.60

Betano

2.57

Pinnacle

2.55

Under

Pinnacle

1.48

Betano

1.47

Marathonbet

1.46

BetVictor

1.45

10Bet

1.44

Maribor over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

6.5%

@ 5.03-11.9%

Under

93.5%

@ 1.14+11.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

5.20

Bet365

5.00

Betano

4.90

Under

Betano

1.16

Bet365

1.14

1xBet

1.11

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Nafta, so a minus line means Nafta give that many goals of a start and Maribor receive them. At -1, Nafta must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nafta win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.

Handicap -2 (Nafta)Actual: Maribor

Nafta -2

4.4%

@ 41.00+2.1%

Draw -2

8.9%

@ 21.00+4.3%

Maribor +2

86.8%

@ 1.02-6.4%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

41.00

Draw

Bet365

21.00

Away

Bet365

1.02

Handicap -1 (Nafta)Actual: Maribor

Nafta -1

13.2%

@ 11.05+5.5%

Draw -1

17.0%

@ 6.28+3.3%

Maribor +1

69.8%

@ 1.09-8.8%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

15.00

Marathonbet

7.10

Draw

Bet365

8.00

Marathonbet

4.55

Away

Marathonbet

1.10

Bet365

1.08

Handicap +1 (Nafta)Actual: Draw

Nafta +1

58.0%

@ 2.45+22.5%

Draw +1

20.8%

@ 3.46-4.3%

Maribor -1

21.3%

@ 2.21-18.1%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Betfair

2.63

Marathonbet

2.53

10Bet

2.50

Bet365

2.40

Unibet

2.18

Draw

Bet365

3.75

Marathonbet

3.56

Betfair

3.50

10Bet

3.50

Unibet

3.00

Away

10Bet

2.30

Bet365

2.25

Betfair

2.20

Marathonbet

2.14

Unibet

2.14

Handicap +2 (Nafta)Actual: Nafta

Nafta +2

78.7%

@ 1.55+22.7%

Draw +2

13.0%

@ 4.10-8.3%

Maribor -2

8.3%

@ 3.83-14.4%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.67

Marathonbet

1.57

10Bet

1.55

Unibet

1.42

Draw

Marathonbet

4.33

Bet365

4.33

10Bet

4.20

Unibet

3.55

Away

10Bet

4.20

Marathonbet

3.80

Unibet

3.70

Bet365

3.60

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Nafta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.1

Avg scored

0.4

Avg conceded

0.7

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.83	0.37	0.73	0.40	0.93	0.33
vs Stronger (2)	0.50	1.00	1.00	2.00	0.00	0.00
vs Similar (17)	0.76	0.41	0.62	0.38	0.89	0.44
vs Weaker (11)	1.00	0.18	0.83	0.17	1.20	0.20
Clean sheet %	70% (+44pp vs league)

This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Maribor

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.1

Avg scored

0.5

Avg conceded

0.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.87	0.40	1.29	0.14	0.50	0.62
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (20)	0.60	0.45	1.00	0.11	0.27	0.73
vs Weaker (10)	1.40	0.30	1.80	0.20	1.00	0.40
Clean sheet %	63% (+37pp vs league)

This opponent (Nafta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

69.1%

@ 1.29-2.4%

Under 0.5

30.9%

@ 3.22+2.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

1.34

Betano

1.33

William Hil

1.30

Bet365

1.30

Marathonbet

1.28

Under

Betfair

3.50

Bet365

3.40

10Bet

3.30

William Hil

3.30

Superbet

3.20

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

33.6%

@ 2.36-5.5%

Under 1.5

66.4%

@ 1.52+5.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.46

Betano

2.45

William Hil

2.40

Betfair

2.38

Bet365

2.38

Under

Pinnacle

1.55

10Bet

1.55

Betfair

1.53

Bet365

1.53

Betano

1.52

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

11.7%

@ 5.30-5.7%

Under 2.5

88.3%

@ 1.12+5.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

5.80

Bet365

5.50

Betfair

5.50

1xBet

5.20

Betano

5.10

Under

Betfair

1.13

Betano

1.13

William Hil

1.12

Bet365

1.12

Superbet

1.11

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Nafta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

40.1%

@ 2.73+6.2%

Under

59.9%

@ 1.40-6.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

3.00

Marathonbet

2.79

Betano

2.67

Superbet

2.65

10Bet

2.65

Under

1xBet

1.42

Betano

1.42

10Bet

1.42

Superbet

1.39

Pinnacle

1.38

Nafta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

8.8%

@ 9.29-1.2%

Under

91.2%

@ 1.03+1.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

10.25

10Bet

9.50

1xBet

9.40

Betano

8.00

Under

Betano

1.05

10Bet

1.03

1xBet

1.01

Nafta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

1.4%

Under

98.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

50.5%

@ 1.55-9.3%

Under

49.5%

@ 2.31+9.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

1.61

Betano

1.60

1xBet

1.53

10Bet

1.53

Pinnacle

1.53

Under

Pinnacle

2.48

1xBet

2.35

Superbet

2.35

10Bet

2.35

Betano

2.22

Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over

Over

18.9%

@ 3.55-7.0%

Under

81.1%

@ 1.24+7.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

3.60

Marathonbet

3.56

10Bet

3.55

1xBet

3.50

Under

10Bet

1.25

1xBet

1.25

Betano

1.24

Marathonbet

1.23

Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

3.5%

@ 8.93-6.9%

Under

96.5%

@ 1.03+6.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

9.80

10Bet

9.00

Betano

8.00

Under

Betano

1.05

10Bet

1.04

1xBet

1.01

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Nafta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.4

Avg scored

0.9

Avg conceded

0.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.07	0.53	1.40	0.73	0.73	0.33
vs Stronger (2)	0.00	1.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	1.00
vs Similar (17)	1.00	0.47	1.25	0.75	0.78	0.22
vs Weaker (11)	1.36	0.55	1.83	0.67	0.80	0.40
Clean sheet %	50% (+24pp vs league)

This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Maribor

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.4

Avg scored

1.0

Avg conceded

0.4

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.73	0.63	1.21	0.57	0.31	0.69
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (20)	0.80	0.75	1.33	0.78	0.36	0.73
vs Weaker (10)	0.60	0.40	1.00	0.20	0.20	0.60
Clean sheet %	57% (+30pp vs league)

This opponent (Nafta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

79.0%

@ 1.17-0.1%

Under 0.5

21.0%

@ 4.42+0.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.18

Bet365

1.18

William Hil

1.18

10Bet

1.17

Superbet

1.15

Under

1xBet

4.90

10Bet

4.50

Bet365

4.50

Betano

4.30

William Hil

4.20

Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

42.8%

@ 1.83-7.8%

Under 1.5

57.2%

@ 1.87+7.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.87

William Hil

1.85

Bet365

1.83

1xBet

1.82

Marathonbet

1.82

Under

Betano

1.91

10Bet

1.91

Marathonbet

1.88

1xBet

1.88

William Hil

1.85

Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

19.5%

@ 3.56-6.3%

Under 2.5

80.5%

@ 1.24+6.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

3.75

William Hil

3.75

1xBet

3.50

Superbet

3.50

Betano

3.30

Under

Betano

1.28

Bet365

1.25

1xBet

1.24

William Hil

1.22

Superbet

1.21

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

Nafta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

47.2%

@ 2.23+5.8%

Under

52.8%

@ 1.57-5.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

2.30

1xBet

2.25

Superbet

2.25

Betano

2.18

10Bet

2.15

Under

10Bet

1.62

Betano

1.60

1xBet

1.57

Superbet

1.56

Marathonbet

1.52

Nafta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

12.8%

@ 7.40+0.3%

Under

87.2%

@ 1.06-0.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

8.40

1xBet

7.90

10Bet

7.00

Betano

6.30

Under

Betano

1.09

10Bet

1.07

1xBet

1.04

Marathonbet

1.03

Nafta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

2.7%

@ 18.62-2.5%

Under

97.3%

@ 1.01+2.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

26.00

Betano

11.25

Under

10Bet

1.01

Betano

1.01

Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

58.1%

@ 1.36-9.5%

Under

41.9%

@ 2.85+9.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.37

10Bet

1.36

1xBet

1.36

Betano

1.36

Under

10Bet

2.90

1xBet

2.90

Betano

2.90

Superbet

2.70

Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

22.1%

@ 2.65-12.7%

Under

77.9%

@ 1.41+12.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

2.75

Superbet

2.65

1xBet

2.65

Marathonbet

2.60

Betano

2.60

Under

Betano

1.44

1xBet

1.41

Marathonbet

1.41

10Bet

1.40

Superbet

1.39

Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

5.2%

@ 6.23-9.6%

Under

94.8%

@ 1.08+9.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

6.60

10Bet

6.50

Betano

5.60

Under

Betano

1.11

10Bet

1.08

1xBet

1.06

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Under 7.5	99.3%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals	98.6%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Under 6.5	97.8%	1.02	Betano 1.03	1xBet 1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	+6.6%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals	97.3%	1.01	10Bet 1.01	Betano 1.01	-	-	-	+2.5%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals	96.5%	1.03	Betano 1.05	10Bet 1.04	1xBet 1.01	-	-	+6.9%	✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals	96.3%	1.01	Betano 1.01	-	-	-	-	+2.7%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals	94.8%	1.08	Betano 1.11	10Bet 1.08	1xBet 1.06	-	-	+9.6%	✓ Hit
Under 5.5	94.0%	1.04	Betano 1.07	Bet365 1.06	Betfair 1.06	BetVictor 1.03	1xBet 1.02	+5.5%	✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals	93.5%	1.14	Betano 1.16	Bet365 1.14	1xBet 1.11	-	-	+11.9%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals	91.2%	1.03	Betano 1.05	10Bet 1.03	1xBet 1.01	-	-	+1.2%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals	88.3%	1.12	Betfair 1.13	Betano 1.13	William Hil 1.12	Bet365 1.12	Superbet 1.11	+5.7%	✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals	87.2%	1.06	Betano 1.09	10Bet 1.07	1xBet 1.04	Marathonbet 1.03	-	-0.3%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals	87.1%	1.03	Betano 1.05	Bet365 1.05	1xBet 1.02	Superbet 1.01	-	-2.3%	✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap	86.8%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	-6.4%	✓ Hit
Under 4.5	85.7%	1.17	Betfair 1.20	Pinnacle 1.19	Betano 1.19	Bet365 1.17	Superbet 1.15	+6.6%	✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls	83.6%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Away under 1.5 HT goals	81.1%	1.24	10Bet 1.25	1xBet 1.25	Betano 1.24	Marathonbet 1.23	-	+7.0%	✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals	80.9%	1.45	Pinnacle 1.48	Betano 1.47	Marathonbet 1.46	BetVictor 1.45	10Bet 1.44	+17.1%	✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals	80.5%	1.24	Betano 1.28	Bet365 1.25	1xBet 1.24	William Hil 1.22	Superbet 1.21	+6.3%	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals	79.0%	1.17	Betano 1.18	Bet365 1.18	William Hil 1.18	10Bet 1.17	Superbet 1.15	-0.1%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals	77.9%	1.41	Betano 1.44	1xBet 1.41	Marathonbet 1.41	10Bet 1.40	Superbet 1.39	+12.7%	✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards	77.7%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Away over 0.5 goals	77.7%	1.08	Betano 1.11	Bet365 1.11	10Bet 1.08	Superbet 1.07	1xBet 1.07	-7.6%	✓ Hit
Over 1.5	77.0%	1.18	Betano 1.21	Betfair 1.20	Bet365 1.20	10Bet 1.20	Pinnacle 1.19	-1.3%	✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards	76.8%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Under 11.5 corners	72.3%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Home or Away	72.2%	1.16	William Hil 1.20	Betano 1.20	Bet365 1.17	Superbet 1.17	10Bet 1.15	-7.1%	✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals	71.0%	1.56	Pinnacle 1.62	BetVictor 1.60	Marathonbet 1.58	Betano 1.57	Bet365 1.57	+12.1%	✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls	70.9%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Under 3.5	70.6%	1.45	Pinnacle 1.51	10Bet 1.48	Betfair 1.47	Betano 1.47	Bet365 1.44	+7.0%	✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

CEL (31)

€14m

OL (27)

€12m

MAR (26)

€10m

KOP (27)

€8m

RAD (21)

€5m

MUR (23)

€5m

BRA (19)

€4m

ALU (24)

€4m

BRI (24)

€3m

NAF (18)

€2m

Nafta's squad is €8m less valuable than Maribor's (€2m vs €10m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

CEL (12)

€7m

OL (11)

€6m

MAR (10)

€5m

KOP (10)

€3m

RAD (7)

€2m

MUR (8)

€2m

ALU (9)

€2m

BRA (5)

€1m

NAF (8)

€1m

BRI (7)

€1m

Nafta's attack is €4m less valuable than Maribor's (€1m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

KOP (7)

€2m

MAR (6)

€2m

CEL (4)

€1m

MUR (5)

€1m

BRA (6)

€1m

BRI (7)

€1m

OL (3)

€1m

RAD (5)

€1m

ALU (5)

€1m

NAF (2)

€0m

Nafta's midfield is €2m less valuable than Maribor's (€0m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

CEL (15)

€6m

OL (13)

€5m

MAR (10)

€3m

KOP (10)

€3m

MUR (10)

€2m

RAD (9)

€2m

BRA (8)

€2m

ALU (10)

€2m

BRI (10)

€1m

NAF (8)

€1m

Nafta's defence is €2m less valuable than Maribor's (€1m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings

NAF wins

Draws

MAR wins

Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Nafta vs Maribor · H/A from NAF

Date	H/A	Game	Score
25/05/25	A	Maribor Vs NAF	0-1
16/04/25	H	NAF Vs Maribor	1-1
08/12/24	A	Maribor Vs NAF	4-0
22/09/24	H	NAF Vs Maribor	0-3

Nafta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
21/08/26	A	Olimpija Ljubljana Vs NAF	1-0
15/08/26	H	NAF Vs Celje	1-3
09/08/26	A	Aluminij Vs NAF	1-1
01/08/26	H	NAF Vs Mura	5-2
26/07/26	A	Bravo Vs NAF	0-3
17/07/26	H	NAF Vs Koper	0-2
31/05/26	H	NAF Vs Primorje	1-0
27/05/26	A	Primorje Vs NAF	0-0
22/05/26	H	NAF Vs Triglav	1-1
17/05/26	A	Brinje-Grosuplje Vs NAF	2-1

Maribor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
23/08/26	H	MAR Vs Bravo	3-1
15/08/26	A	Olimpija Ljubljana Vs MAR	1-1
09/08/26	H	MAR Vs Koper	2-0
01/08/26	A	Celje Vs MAR	1-1
25/07/26	H	MAR Vs Brinje-Grosuplje	3-0
19/07/26	A	Aluminij Vs MAR	0-0
23/05/26	H	MAR Vs Aluminij	3-0
17/05/26	A	Mura Vs MAR	2-1
03/05/26	A	Radomlje Vs MAR	2-1
26/04/26	A	Bravo Vs MAR	3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Nafta

Slovenia: 1. SNL

Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WWDLL	1.96
Home	DWLWL	2.04
Away	LDWDL	1.88

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	58%	62%	54%
AVG goals	3.08	3.58	2.54
Over 1.5 %	84%	88%	79%
Over 2.5 %	48%	62%	33%
Over 3.5 %	34%	42%	25%
Scored	1.86	2.12	1.58
Conceded	1.22	1.46	0.96
BTTS	60%	77%	42%
Clean Sheet	32%	15%	50%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Maribor

Slovenia: 1. SNL

Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WDWDW	1.64
Home	WWWWW	2.04
Away	LLDDD	1.27

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	44%	58%	31%
AVG goals	2.72	3.25	2.23
Over 1.5 %	82%	92%	73%
Over 2.5 %	50%	62%	38%
Over 3.5 %	26%	42%	12%
Scored	1.66	2.33	1.04
Conceded	1.06	0.92	1.19
BTTS	54%	50%	58%
Clean Sheet	32%	46%	19%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Maribor	7	15	57%	2.1	13	5	+8	2.6	86%	43%	29%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	10	5	2	3	1.9	0.7	-
2	Koper	7	12	43%	1.7	7	5	+2	1.7	57%	14%	14%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	8	3	2	3	1.0	0.7	-
3	Celje	6	11	50%	1.8	10	8	+2	3.0	83%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	14	7	1	6	1.7	1.3	-
4	Bravo	7	11	43%	1.6	8	8	+0	2.3	86%	43%	14%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	4	1	1	2	1.1	1.1	-
5	Aluminij	7	8	29%	1.1	8	8	+0	2.3	57%	29%	29%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	4	2	1	2	1.1	1.1	-
6	Brinje-Grosuplje	7	8	29%	1.1	11	12	-1	3.3	100%	57%	29%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	1.6	1.7	-
7	Olimpija Ljubljana	7	8	29%	1.1	3	5	-2	1.1	29%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	12	6	1	5	0.4	0.7	-
8	Nafta	7	7	29%	1.0	12	12	+0	3.4	86%	57%	43%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	1	0	1	1.7	1.7	-
9	Mura	7	7	29%	1.0	8	14	-6	3.1	71%	57%	43%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	2	1	2	1.1	2.0	-
10	Radomlje	6	5	17%	0.8	7	10	-3	2.8	83%	67%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	2	1	2	1.2	1.7	-

Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

← all matches

Nafta vs Maribor Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nafta

Maribor

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Nafta

🚩 Corners

🟨 Cards

⚠️ Fouls

Maribor

🚩 Corners

🟨 Cards

⚠️ Fouls

Nafta

Maribor

🚩 Total Corners

🟨 Total Cards

⚠️ Total Fouls

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Nafta

Maribor

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Nafta

Maribor

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Nafta

Maribor

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature