Nafta vs Mura Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026

Time: 16:00

Final 5-2

Nafta

43%

27%

30%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Mura

Slovenia: 1. SNL

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

Nafta is expected to come out on top in this match, with their recent form telling a story of resilience, having come off a draw and boasting a strong home record. The home side has been scoring an average of 2.6 goals at home, conceding just 0.7. Meanwhile, Mura has struggled on the road, scoring 0.6 goals and conceding 2.4 against stronger opponents.

The model predicts a 43% chance of a Nafta win, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 30% chance of a Mura win. The expected total goals stand at 2.8. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring 12.9% of the time. The model's selection is the Home win, and it also suggests the Over 1.5 selection, which has an 78.3% probability of hitting, with an edge of 5%.

In terms of probabilities, Nafta has a 43% chance of winning, a 27% chance of drawing, and a 30% chance of losing. The model's suggested picks include the Over 1.5 selection at 78.3%, and the Home win at 43%.

Results analysis

The win extends Nafta's recent form, coming off a draw and having a stronger opponent strength at home. In the end, the final score was 5-2, a convincing home win. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 43%. The model's call was spot on, as Nafta's recent form and home advantage paid off. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals also hit, with a probability of 78.3%. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, while the model's selection of the most likely score, 1-1, missed.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nafta win✓ Hit

43.2%

Avg Implied 37.5% · @ 2.43

Edge

+5.8%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

2.55

Dafabet

2.49

Betano

2.47

Bet365

2.45

Superbet

2.45

Draw✗ Miss

27.2%

Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.21

Edge

-1.1%

Best 5 market prices

Betano

3.35

Bet365

3.30

Betfair

3.30

Dafabet

3.30

10Bet

3.30

Mura win✗ Miss

29.5%

Avg Implied 34.2% · @ 2.67

Edge

-4.6%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

2.84

Dafabet

2.75

William Hil

2.70

Superbet

2.70

Marathonbet

2.68

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nafta

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.0

Avg scored

1.3

Avg conceded

0.7

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	2.00	0.70	2.13	0.87	1.87	0.53
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (16)	1.56	0.75	1.38	0.88	1.75	0.62
vs Weaker (14)	2.50	0.64	3.00	0.86	2.00	0.43
Clean sheet %	43% (+17pp vs league)

This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mura

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.4

Avg scored

1.1

Avg conceded

1.3

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.10	1.60	1.06	1.19	1.14	2.07
vs Stronger (15)	0.73	1.67	0.89	1.11	0.50	2.50
vs Similar (15)	1.47	1.53	1.29	1.29	1.62	1.75
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	20% (-6pp vs league)

This opponent (Nafta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

78.3%

@ 1.27+5.3%

Under 1.5

21.7%

@ 3.42-5.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

1.29

Betano

1.29

Bet365

1.28

Pinnacle

1.28

10Bet

1.28

Under

Pinnacle

3.63

Betfair

3.60

Bet365

3.50

10Bet

3.40

BetVictor

3.40

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

53.3%

@ 1.89+3.9%

Under 2.5

46.7%

@ 1.85-3.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.95

Pinnacle

1.95

SBO

1.90

10Bet

1.90

Superbet

1.87

Under

SBO

1.88

Pinnacle

1.88

Betano

1.87

Bet365

1.85

10Bet

1.85

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

31.1%

@ 3.16+1.8%

Under 3.5

68.9%

@ 1.31-1.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

3.30

Betfair

3.30

Pinnacle

3.27

Bet365

3.25

10Bet

3.20

Under

Betano

1.34

Pinnacle

1.34

10Bet

1.33

Bet365

1.33

BetVictor

1.29

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

57.6%

@ 1.68+2.7%

42.4%

@ 2.05-2.7%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Bet365

1.73

Betano

1.70

Superbet

1.70

BetVictor

1.67

10Bet

1.67

William Hil

2.10

Betfair

2.10

1xBet

2.06

BetVictor

2.05

Superbet

2.05

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

12.9%@ 5.82+5.4%

2-1

9.1%@ 8.62+4.1%

1-0

8.2%@ 7.90+2.6%

1-2

7.4%@ 9.09+2.5%

2-0

7.3%@ 11.39+3.4%

0-0

7.2%@ 9.75+2.7%

0-1

6.4%@ 8.28+1.1%

2-2

5.7%@ 11.81+2.0%

Nafta goals ↓

	Mura goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.2%	6.4%	4.7%	2.0%	0.6%
1	8.2%	13%	7.4%	3.1%	1.0%
2	7.3%	9.1%	5.7%	2.4%	0.8%
3	3.8%	4.7%	3.0%	1.2%	0.4%
4	1.5%	1.8%	1.2%	0.5%	0.2%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nafta goals (down), columns = Mura goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Celje

2.18

Nafta

2.00

Koper

1.97

Bravo

1.82

Maribor

1.61

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.58

Radomlje

1.32

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.26

Aluminij

1.06

Mura

0.91

Nafta is 1.09 points better than Mura in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.91).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Celje

2.50

Koper

2.09

Bravo

1.82

Maribor

1.73

Radomlje

1.47

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.42

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.25

Aluminij

1.24

Mura

1.03

Nafta

0.50

Nafta is 0.53 goals worse than Mura in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Nafta

0.00

Celje

0.94

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.21

Maribor

1.21

Koper

1.26

Bravo

1.50

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.61

Mura

1.62

Aluminij

1.79

Radomlje

1.85

Nafta is 1.62 goals better than Mura in terms of goals conceded per game (0.00 vs 1.62).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Nafta

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Mura

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Nafta

Split	Corners			Cards			Fouls
Split	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy
Overall (50)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Stronger (6)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Similar (22)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Weaker (22)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
% over line	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	-	-	-
% under line	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	-	-	-

This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mura

Split	Corners			Cards			Fouls
Split	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy
Overall (50)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Stronger (25)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Similar (25)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
% over line	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	-	-	-
% under line	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	-	-	-

This opponent (Nafta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game

Mura

11.1

Aluminij

10.1

Olimpija Ljubljana

9.7

Bravo

9.6

Celje

9.2

Koper

9.2

Maribor

9.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game

Aluminij

5.0

Celje

4.8

Maribor

4.7

Olimpija Ljubljana

4.7

Mura

4.2

Koper

4.0

Bravo

3.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game

Aluminij

27.0

Maribor

25.2

Olimpija Ljubljana

25.2

Koper

24.9

Bravo

24.7

Celje

24.7

Mura

24.2

Corners O/U 9.5

Over 9.5

53.8%

@ 2.25+12.8%

Under 9.5

46.2%

@ 1.56-12.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.42

Pinnacle

2.27

Marathonbet

2.21

1xBet

2.19

Superbet

2.17

Under

Superbet

1.61

1xBet

1.59

Pinnacle

1.58

Marathonbet

1.53

Betano

1.50

Cards O/U 3.5

Over 3.5

58.6%

Under 3.5

41.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Fouls O/U 21.5

Over 21.5

70.6%

Under 21.5

29.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔥 6. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 1.5	78.3%	1.27	BetVictor 1.29	Betano 1.29	Bet365 1.28	Pinnacle 1.28	10Bet 1.28	+5.3%	✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls	70.6%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

CEL (31)

€14m

OL (27)

€12m

MAR (26)

€10m

KOP (27)

€8m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

CEL (12)

€7m

OL (11)

€6m

MAR (10)

€5m

KOP (10)

€3m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

KOP (7)

€2m

MAR (6)

€2m

CEL (4)

€1m

OL (3)

€1m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

CEL (15)

€6m

OL (13)

€5m

MAR (10)

€3m

KOP (10)

€3m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Nafta vs Mura · H/A from NAF

Date	H/A	Game	Score
05/04/25	H	NAF Vs Mura	4-2
02/02/25	A	Mura Vs NAF	0-0
28/09/24	H	NAF Vs Mura	0-0
20/07/24	A	Mura Vs NAF	1-0

Nafta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
26/07/26	A	Bravo Vs NAF	0-3
17/07/26	H	NAF Vs Koper	0-2
31/05/26	H	NAF Vs Primorje	1-0
27/05/26	A	Primorje Vs NAF	0-0
22/05/26	H	NAF Vs Triglav	1-1
17/05/26	A	Brinje-Grosuplje Vs NAF	2-1
10/05/26	H	NAF Vs Beltinci	2-1
06/05/26	A	Bilje Vs NAF	0-1
30/04/26	A	Ilirija Vs NAF	0-2
25/04/26	H	NAF Vs Bistrica	2-1

Mura

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
25/07/26	H	MUR Vs Olimpija Ljubljana	1-0
17/07/26	A	Celje Vs MUR	2-2
22/05/26	A	Radomlje Vs MUR	3-2
17/05/26	H	MUR Vs Maribor	2-1
10/05/26	A	Primorje Vs MUR	0-2
03/05/26	H	MUR Vs Koper	0-1
19/04/26	H	MUR Vs Celje	0-2
16/04/26	A	Aluminij Vs MUR	2-1
11/04/26	H	MUR Vs Bravo	1-2
04/04/26	H	MUR Vs Olimpija Ljubljana	0-0

📊 9. Overall Statistics

Nafta

Slovenia: 1. SNL

Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	DDWLW	1.94
Home	WWDWL	2.04
Away	WWLDW	1.84

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	56%	60%	52%
AVG goals	2.98	3.44	2.52
Over 1.5 %	84%	88%	80%
Over 2.5 %	48%	60%	36%
Over 3.5 %	32%	40%	24%
Scored	1.78	2.04	1.52
Conceded	1.20	1.40	1.00
BTTS	58%	76%	40%
Clean Sheet	34%	16%	52%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Mura

Slovenia: 1. SNL

Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WWLDW	0.88
Home	LLLWW	1.36
Away	LLWLD	0.40

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	22%	36%	8%
AVG goals	2.66	2.40	2.92
Over 1.5 %	80%	80%	80%
Over 2.5 %	50%	44%	56%
Over 3.5 %	24%	20%	28%
Scored	1.04	1.20	0.88
Conceded	1.62	1.20	2.04
BTTS	50%	52%	48%
Clean Sheet	16%	24%	8%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 10. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Maribor	5	9	40%	1.8	7	2	+5	1.8	80%	20%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	10	5	2	3	1.4	0.4	-
2	Celje	4	8	50%	2.0	7	4	+3	2.8	75%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	14	7	1	6	1.8	1.0	-
3	Nafta	5	7	40%	1.4	10	8	+2	3.6	100%	60%	40%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.6	-
4	Bravo	4	7	50%	1.8	5	5	+0	2.5	100%	50%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.2	-
5	Koper	4	5	25%	1.2	5	5	+0	2.5	100%	25%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	8	3	2	3	1.2	1.2	-
6	Brinje-Grosuplje	4	5	25%	1.2	4	5	-1	2.2	100%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.2	-
7	Radomlje	4	4	25%	1.0	6	7	-1	3.2	100%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.8	-
8	Olimpija Ljubljana	5	4	20%	0.8	2	5	-3	1.4	40%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	12	6	1	5	0.4	1.0	-
9	Mura	4	4	25%	1.0	6	10	-4	4.0	75%	75%	75%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	2.5	-
10	Aluminij	3	2	0%	0.7	1	2	-1	1.0	33%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.3	0.7	-

Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

← all matches

Nafta vs Mura Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Nafta

Mura

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Nafta

🚩 Corners

🟨 Cards

⚠️ Fouls

Mura

🚩 Corners

🟨 Cards

⚠️ Fouls

Nafta

Mura

🚩 Total Corners

🟨 Total Cards

⚠️ Total Fouls

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔥 6. Top picks for this game

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Nafta

Mura

📊 9. Overall Statistics

🏆 10. League Table

A Pro feature