Naftagas is the clear favourite, with the model predicting a home win at 43%. The expected goal tally sits at 2.6, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.7% chance. Naftagas, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded. Jedinstvo Ub, on the road, averages only 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded versus this tier.
The match probabilities read 43% for a home win, 29% for a draw, and 28% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Under 5.5 (95.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.6%), Under 4.5 (88.4%), and Home +2 handicap (88.4%). Naftagas comes off a win, while Jedinstvo Ub is still recovering from three consecutive defeats. The overall shape of the game suggests a cautious, low-scoring affair with Naftagas holding a slight edge.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Naftagas win
43.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub win
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Naftagas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
0.50
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
1.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Jedinstvo Ub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jedinstvo Ub
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.50
1.53
1.67
0.67
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.96
1.56
1.38
1.69
0.57
1.43
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftagas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.0%
Under 2.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.4%
Under 3.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.5%
No
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
10.0%
0-0
9.0%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.1%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
5.0%
Naftagas goals ↓
Jedinstvo Ub goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
7.4%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
1
10.0%
14%
6.9%
2.6%
0.7%
2
8.1%
9.0%
5.0%
1.9%
0.5%
3
3.9%
4.3%
2.4%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.6%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Naftagas goals (down), columns = Jedinstvo Ub goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Naftagas and Jedinstvo Ub are level in average points per game (both 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Naftagas and Jedinstvo Ub are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Naftagas is 0.33 goals better than Jedinstvo Ub in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Naftagas or Draw
72.0%
Avg Implied -
43%
29%
28%
covers Naftagas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naftagas or Jedinstvo Ub
71.3%
Avg Implied -
43%
29%
28%
covers Naftagas + Jedinstvo Ub
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Jedinstvo Ub
56.7%
Avg Implied -
43%
29%
28%
covers Draw + Jedinstvo Ub
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Naftagas over/under 0.5
Over
76.3%
Under
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 1.5
Over
42.2%
Under
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 2.5
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 3.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 0.5
Over
67.2%
Under
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 1.5
Over
30.6%
Under
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 2.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Naftagas, so a minus line means Naftagas give that many goals of a start and Jedinstvo Ub receive them. At -1, Naftagas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Naftagas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Naftagas)
Naftagas -2
8.3%
Draw -2
13.3%
Jedinstvo Ub +2
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Naftagas)
Naftagas -1
21.6%
Draw -1
21.7%
Jedinstvo Ub +1
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Naftagas)
Naftagas +1
72.0%
Draw +1
16.5%
Jedinstvo Ub -1
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Naftagas)
Naftagas +2
88.5%
Draw +2
8.0%
Jedinstvo Ub -2
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Naftagas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Jedinstvo Ub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jedinstvo Ub
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.67
0.73
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.44
0.78
0.69
0.69
0.21
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftagas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Naftagas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Naftagas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.17
2.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
1.00
1.75
2.00
3.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Jedinstvo Ub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jedinstvo Ub
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.87
0.93
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.78
0.69
1.00
0.36
0.57
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftagas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Naftagas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jedinstvo Ub over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Jedinstvo Ub · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ethan Hoard24%
Darko Jevtić20%
Aleksa Paić18%
Richardson Kwaku Denzell14%
Issah Abass13%
Dimitrije Aćimović9%
Simón Moreno8%
Branislav Runjajić8%
Stefan Golubović8%
Strahinja Rakić7%
Tomás Pérez6%
Marko Mitrović5%
Danilo Miladinović3%
Viktor Damjanić3%
Uroš Matić0%
Jovan Stojanović0%
Ibrahim Kargbo Jr0%
Julian Kristoffersen0%
Levan Jordania0%
Ivan Rogač0%
Veljko Kijevčanin0%
Mišo Dubljanić0%
Ognjen Dimitrić0%
Luka Radivojević0%
Justin Bengui0%
Stefan Denić0%
Edrissa Ceesay0%
Aleksandar Popović0%
Pablo Ferreira0%
Kristijan Bošković0%
Nemanja Doderović0%
Igor Milanović0%
Uroš Stevančević0%
Uroš Savković0%
Amir Saidov0%
Vukašin Jovanović0%
Stefan Petroski Cimbaljević0%
Luka Mladenović0%
Joe Arana0%
Radomir Lazić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Edrissa Ceesay33%
Pablo Ferreira29%
Mišo Dubljanić25%
Strahinja Rakić25%
Aleksa Paić24%
Veljko Kijevčanin23%
Viktor Damjanić23%
Issah Abass20%
Luka Radivojević20%
Stefan Petroski Cimbaljević20%
Ivan Rogač18%
Ethan Hoard18%
Dimitrije Aćimović17%
Julian Kristoffersen17%
Luka Mladenović17%
Aleksandar Popović12%
Uroš Savković12%
Richardson Kwaku Denzell9%
Uroš Matić8%
Simón Moreno8%
Nemanja Doderović8%
Levan Jordania8%
Stefan Golubović8%
Igor Milanović8%
Uroš Stevančević5%
Marko Mitrović5%
Danilo Miladinović3%
Jovan Stojanović0%
Ibrahim Kargbo Jr0%
Darko Jevtić0%
Ognjen Dimitrić0%
Justin Bengui0%
Stefan Denić0%
Kristijan Bošković0%
Tomás Pérez0%
Amir Saidov0%
Vukašin Jovanović0%
Branislav Runjajić0%
Joe Arana0%
Radomir Lazić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Veljko Kijevčanin15%
Marko Mitrović14%
Issah Abass13%
Ethan Hoard12%
Uroš Matić8%
Branislav Runjajić8%
Stefan Golubović8%
Igor Milanović8%
Danilo Miladinović7%
Uroš Savković6%
Nemanja Doderović4%
Jovan Stojanović0%
Ibrahim Kargbo Jr0%
Julian Kristoffersen0%
Levan Jordania0%
Darko Jevtić0%
Ivan Rogač0%
Mišo Dubljanić0%
Ognjen Dimitrić0%
Simón Moreno0%
Luka Radivojević0%
Justin Bengui0%
Stefan Denić0%
Edrissa Ceesay0%
Aleksandar Popović0%
Viktor Damjanić0%
Pablo Ferreira0%
Kristijan Bošković0%
Uroš Stevančević0%
Tomás Pérez0%
Amir Saidov0%
Aleksa Paić0%
Strahinja Rakić0%
Vukašin Jovanović0%
Richardson Kwaku Denzell0%
Dimitrije Aćimović0%
Stefan Petroski Cimbaljević0%
Luka Mladenović0%
Joe Arana0%
Radomir Lazić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ethan Hoard29%
Richardson Kwaku Denzell14%
Issah Abass13%
Veljko Kijevčanin8%
Igor Milanović8%
Nemanja Doderović4%
Danilo Miladinović3%
Uroš Matić0%
Jovan Stojanović0%
Ibrahim Kargbo Jr0%
Julian Kristoffersen0%
Levan Jordania0%
Darko Jevtić0%
Ivan Rogač0%
Stefan Golubović0%
Mišo Dubljanić0%
Ognjen Dimitrić0%
Simón Moreno0%
Luka Radivojević0%
Justin Bengui0%
Stefan Denić0%
Edrissa Ceesay0%
Aleksandar Popović0%
Viktor Damjanić0%
Pablo Ferreira0%
Kristijan Bošković0%
Uroš Stevančević0%
Uroš Savković0%
Marko Mitrović0%
Tomás Pérez0%
Amir Saidov0%
Aleksa Paić0%
Strahinja Rakić0%
Vukašin Jovanović0%
Dimitrije Aćimović0%
Branislav Runjajić0%
Stefan Petroski Cimbaljević0%
Luka Mladenović0%
Joe Arana0%
Radomir Lazić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Cacak
Semendrija 1924
TSC Backa Topola
OFK Vršac
Javor
Dubočica
Napredak
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Loznica
FK Vozdovac
Teleoptik
OFK Bor 1919
Metalac GM
Grafičar