Naftagas are the clear favourites, with a 42 % chance of victory, a 30 % chance of a draw and a 28 % chance of Metalac GM winning. The model predicts an average of 2.4 goals, most likely a 2-goal total. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.1 % probability. Naftagas, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, normally scores 2.0 goals and concedes 3.0; Metalac GM, on the road, averages 0.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.6 %), Under 5.5 (96.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.0 %), Away under 2.5 goals (90.7 %), Under 4.5 (89.9 %) and Home +2 handicap (88.8 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Naftagas win
42.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM win
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Naftagas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
0.50
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
1.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalac GM) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metalac GM
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.13
1.47
1.40
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.07
1.18
1.43
1.50
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftagas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.3%
Under 1.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.0%
Under 2.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.9%
Under 3.5
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.3%
No
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
10.7%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
8.7%
2-0
8.2%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.0%
Naftagas goals ↓
Metalac GM goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.1%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.8%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.2%
8.7%
4.7%
1.7%
0.4%
3
3.7%
4.0%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Naftagas goals (down), columns = Metalac GM goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Naftagas and Metalac GM are level in average points per game (both 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Naftagas and Metalac GM are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Naftagas is 0.33 goals better than Metalac GM in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Naftagas or Draw
71.9%
Avg Implied -
42%
30%
28%
covers Naftagas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naftagas or Metalac GM
70.4%
Avg Implied -
42%
30%
28%
covers Naftagas + Metalac GM
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Metalac GM
57.7%
Avg Implied -
42%
30%
28%
covers Draw + Metalac GM
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Naftagas over/under 0.5
Over
74.5%
Under
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 1.5
Over
39.7%
Under
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 2.5
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 0.5
Over
65.7%
Under
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 1.5
Over
29.0%
Under
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 2.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Naftagas, so a minus line means Naftagas give that many goals of a start and Metalac GM receive them. At -1, Naftagas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Naftagas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Naftagas)
Naftagas -2
7.6%
Draw -2
13.0%
Metalac GM +2
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Naftagas)
Naftagas -1
20.5%
Draw -1
21.8%
Metalac GM +1
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Naftagas)
Naftagas +1
71.9%
Draw +1
16.8%
Metalac GM -1
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Naftagas)
Naftagas +2
88.7%
Draw +2
7.9%
Metalac GM -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Naftagas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalac GM) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metalac GM
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.57
0.47
0.67
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.32
0.57
0.43
0.71
0.21
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftagas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.6%
Under 0.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.0%
Under 1.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.1%
Under 2.5
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Naftagas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.1%
Under
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Naftagas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.17
2.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
1.00
1.75
2.00
3.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalac GM) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metalac GM
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
1.00
0.73
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.61
1.00
0.79
0.50
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftagas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.3%
Under 0.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.9%
Under 1.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.4%
Under 2.5
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Naftagas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.5%
Under
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.3%
Under
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Cacak
Semendrija 1924
TSC Backa Topola
OFK Vršac
Javor
Dubočica
Napredak
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Loznica
FK Vozdovac
Teleoptik
OFK Bor 1919
Jedinstvo Ub
Grafičar