Naftagas enter the match on a win after a 2-1 victory over Grafičar, but the model still favors a TSC Backa Topola win, giving the away side a 69 % chance of triumph. The home team’s recent form shows a 2.0 average of goals scored and 1.0 conceded against stronger opponents, while the visitors boast 2.67 goals for and 1.17 against weaker teams on the road. This disparity explains the high probability of an away win and the model’s pick of a 1-2 scoreline, the most likely result with an 8.7 % chance. The expected total of four goals leans toward a 6+ tally, with a 21 % probability of exceeding six goals. Home win, draw and away win probabilities are 14 %, 17 % and 69 % respectively. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (96.6 %), Under 7.5 (95.2 %), Away +2 handicap (94.7 %), Away over 0.5 goals (93.6 %), Over 1.5 (91.1 %), Under 6.5 (89.4 %), Home under 2.5 goals (87.9 %) and Draw or Away (86.4 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Naftagas win
14.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
TSC Backa Topola win
68.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Naftagas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
0.50
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
1.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (TSC Backa Topola) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TSC Backa Topola
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.17
1.25
1.19
1.64
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.70
1.20
0.40
1.20
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (18)
1.94
1.17
1.80
1.30
2.12
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftagas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.9%
Under 1.5
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
75.1%
Under 2.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
55.2%
Under 3.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.4%
No
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.8%
1-3
8.0%
0-2
7.2%
1-1
7.2%
0-3
6.5%
2-2
5.4%
1-4
5.4%
2-3
4.9%
Naftagas goals ↓
TSC Backa Topola goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.6%
4.7%
7.2%
6.5%
4.4%
1
1.8%
7.2%
8.8%
8.0%
5.4%
2
1.5%
4.0%
5.4%
4.9%
3.3%
3
0.6%
1.6%
2.2%
2.0%
1.3%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Naftagas goals (down), columns = TSC Backa Topola goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Naftagas is 1.33 points worse than TSC Backa Topola in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Naftagas is 0.67 goals worse than TSC Backa Topola in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Naftagas is 0.33 goals worse than TSC Backa Topola in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Naftagas or Draw
31.9%
Avg Implied -
14%
18%
68%
covers Naftagas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naftagas or TSC Backa Topola
82.4%
Avg Implied -
14%
18%
68%
covers Naftagas + TSC Backa Topola
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or TSC Backa Topola
85.7%
Avg Implied -
14%
18%
68%
covers Draw + TSC Backa Topola
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Naftagas over/under 0.5
Over
70.5%
Under
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 1.5
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 2.5
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSC Backa Topola over/under 0.5
Over
93.3%
Under
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSC Backa Topola over/under 1.5
Over
75.2%
Under
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSC Backa Topola over/under 2.5
Over
50.7%
Under
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSC Backa Topola over/under 3.5
Over
28.7%
Under
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Naftagas, so a minus line means Naftagas give that many goals of a start and TSC Backa Topola receive them. At -1, Naftagas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Naftagas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Naftagas)
Naftagas -2
1.7%
Draw -2
3.9%
TSC Backa Topola +2
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Naftagas)
Naftagas -1
5.6%
Draw -1
8.6%
TSC Backa Topola +1
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Naftagas)
Naftagas +1
31.9%
Draw +1
19.9%
TSC Backa Topola -1
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Naftagas)
Naftagas +2
51.8%
Draw +2
19.3%
TSC Backa Topola -2
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Naftagas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (TSC Backa Topola) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TSC Backa Topola
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.57
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.20
0.40
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.50
1.10
0.70
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftagas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Naftagas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSC Backa Topola over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSC Backa Topola over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSC Backa Topola over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Naftagas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.17
2.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
1.00
1.75
2.00
3.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (TSC Backa Topola) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TSC Backa Topola
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
0.50
0.69
1.07
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.67
0.70
0.60
1.38
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftagas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Naftagas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSC Backa Topola over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSC Backa Topola over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TSC Backa Topola over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
TSC Backa Topola · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Radivoj Bosić25%
Andrej Todoroski21%
Miloš Šatara20%
Mihajlo Milosavić17%
Saša Jovanović17%
Bogdan Petrović17%
Dragoljub Savić14%
Sarpreet Singh13%
Tyrone Conraad12%
Miloš Degenek8%
Stefan Jovanović6%
Andrej Petrović6%
Milan Radin4%
Szabolcs Mezei4%
Branko Jovičić0%
Luka Capan0%
Slobodan Urošević0%
Nikola Simić0%
Vieljeux Prestige Mboungou0%
Bojan Dimoski0%
Miloš Pantović0%
Baptiste Roux0%
Vukašin Krstić0%
Veljko Ilić0%
Viktor Radojević0%
Stefan Mladenović0%
Aleksandar Stančić0%
Stefan Tomović0%
Miloš Soprenić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Miloš Soprenić50%
Milan Radin39%
Branko Jovičić37%
Luka Capan36%
Miloš Pantović33%
Stefan Jovanović32%
Miloš Šatara30%
Sarpreet Singh27%
Viktor Radojević25%
Aleksandar Stančić22%
Szabolcs Mezei21%
Dragoljub Savić17%
Vukašin Krstić17%
Miloš Degenek15%
Baptiste Roux12%
Slobodan Urošević11%
Saša Jovanović10%
Bogdan Petrović10%
Andrej Todoroski9%
Stefan Mladenović8%
Radivoj Bosić6%
Stefan Tomović6%
Nikola Simić3%
Tyrone Conraad0%
Vieljeux Prestige Mboungou0%
Bojan Dimoski0%
Veljko Ilić0%
Mihajlo Milosavić0%
Andrej Petrović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Radivoj Bosić19%
Andrej Todoroski18%
Stefan Jovanović16%
Branko Jovičić11%
Saša Jovanović10%
Miloš Šatara10%
Mihajlo Milosavić9%
Dragoljub Savić9%
Sarpreet Singh7%
Aleksandar Stančić4%
Stefan Mladenović4%
Szabolcs Mezei4%
Bogdan Petrović3%
Miloš Degenek0%
Luka Capan0%
Tyrone Conraad0%
Slobodan Urošević0%
Nikola Simić0%
Milan Radin0%
Vieljeux Prestige Mboungou0%
Bojan Dimoski0%
Miloš Pantović0%
Baptiste Roux0%
Vukašin Krstić0%
Veljko Ilić0%
Viktor Radojević0%
Andrej Petrović0%
Stefan Tomović0%
Miloš Soprenić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andrej Todoroski42%
Radivoj Bosić19%
Bogdan Petrović17%
Saša Jovanović14%
Sarpreet Singh13%
Mihajlo Milosavić13%
Tyrone Conraad12%
Andrej Petrović6%
Milan Radin4%
Aleksandar Stančić4%
Branko Jovičić4%
Dragoljub Savić3%
Miloš Degenek0%
Luka Capan0%
Szabolcs Mezei0%
Slobodan Urošević0%
Miloš Šatara0%
Nikola Simić0%
Stefan Jovanović0%
Vieljeux Prestige Mboungou0%
Bojan Dimoski0%
Miloš Pantović0%
Baptiste Roux0%
Vukašin Krstić0%
Veljko Ilić0%
Viktor Radojević0%
Stefan Mladenović0%
Stefan Tomović0%
Miloš Soprenić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Cacak
Semendrija 1924
OFK Vršac
Javor
Dubočica
Napredak
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Loznica
FK Vozdovac
Teleoptik
OFK Bor 1919
Metalac GM
Jedinstvo Ub
Grafičar