PythiaFootballBETA
Naftan is coming off a win, having defeated Arsenal 3-0 in their last meeting, and that momentum may carry over into this match. However, their recent form at home is mixed, with an average of 1.14 goals scored per game against stronger opponents. In contrast, Arsenal's away form is concerning, having conceded an average of 0.6 goals per game against weaker opponents.
The model predicts a 37% chance of a home win, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 34% chance of an away win, favoring a Naftan victory as the most likely outcome. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 14.1%. Naftan's home scoring and conceding averages are 1.14 and 2.29 goals per game, respectively, while Arsenal's away scoring and conceding averages are 1.7 and 0.6 goals per game.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals at 75.7%, which offers a 4% edge. Other selections include Under 9.5 corners (100%), Under 21.5 fouls (100%), and Over 1.5 goals (72.6%). The home win percentage is 37%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 34%.
The win extends Naftan's run after coming off a win, and they now boast a strong home form record. The 3-0 scoreline confirmed the actual result, a home win, which was also the model's call. The model's selection, the home win, had a pre-match probability of 37%. The model's call was correct, as the Naftan victory was the favoured outcome.
The model's selection of under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 75.7%. Under 21.5 fouls was also a hit, with a 100% probability. Over 1.5 goals was another hit, with a 72.6% probability. Under 9.5 corners, however, missed, despite a 100% probability.
Naftan| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 0.60 | 1.93 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.67 | 2.67 | 1.00 | 2.67 | 0.33 | 2.67 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.56 | 1.39 | 2.33 | 1.33 | 0.78 | 1.44 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
Arsenal (Belarus)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 1.33 | 0.87 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.85 | 1.11 | 0.77 | 1.15 | 0.93 | 1.07 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Arsenal (Belarus) goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.5% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 14% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 6.8% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
NaftanArsenal (Belarus)Naftan| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.0 | - | 8.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 25.0 | - | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (17) | - | - | - | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (33) | 8.0 | - | 8.0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 25.0 | - | 25.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | - | 0% | 32% | 28% | 36% | 100% | - | 100% |
| % under line | 100% | - | 100% | 68% | 72% | 64% | 0% | - | 0% |
Arsenal (Belarus)| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.8 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 20.7 | 20.7 | - |
| vs Stronger (5) | 15.0 | 15.0 | - | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 29.0 | 29.0 | - |
| vs Similar (45) | 6.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 16.5 | 16.5 | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 25% | 33% | 0% | 36% | 38% | 35% | 33% | 33% | - |
| % under line | 75% | 67% | 100% | 64% | 62% | 65% | 67% | 67% | - |
Naftan| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 1.03 | 0.87 | 1.07 | 0.27 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.42 | 1.42 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.67 | 0.78 | 1.11 | 0.78 | 0.22 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Arsenal (Belarus)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.47 | 0.13 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.41 | 0.48 | 0.08 | 0.46 | 0.71 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Naftan| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.87 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.25 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.00 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.89 | 0.61 | 1.22 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Arsenal (Belarus)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.87 | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 1.67 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.44 | 0.63 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.21 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 90.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 80.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 79.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 75.7% | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | +4.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 72.6% | 1.29 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.27 | 1.27 | +1.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 06/07/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 24/11/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 30/06/24 | A | 0-3 |
Naftan| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 29/11/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 23/11/25 | A | 5-0 | |
| 08/11/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 25/10/25 | H | 1-3 | |
| 19/10/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 04/10/25 | H | 5-3 | |
| 25/09/25 | A | 4-2 | |
| 19/09/25 | H | 5-0 |
Arsenal (Belarus)| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 12/07/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 04/07/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 22/11/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 08/11/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/11/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 26/10/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 17/10/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 10/10/25 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  FC Vitebsk | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 1.4 | 29% | 14% | 0% | 9.8 | 50% | 2.8 | 0% | 20.2 | 25% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2 |  FC Isloch Minsk R. | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 11.6 | 80% | 3.2 | 20% | 26.2 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 47% |
| 3 |  Dinamo Brest | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 50% | 11.0 | 100% | 3.4 | 40% | 27.8 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 4 |  Neman | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 1.7 | 50% | 17% | 0% | 9.4 | 60% | 3.0 | 20% | 27.7 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 5 |  FC Minsk | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 11.2 | 60% | 1.8 | 0% | 19.4 | 20% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 6 |  Baranovichi | 7 | 9 | 29% | 1.3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 2.7 | 71% | 29% | 29% | 11.8 | 80% | 2.8 | 25% | 28.2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 7 |  FC Gomel | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 1.8 | 33% | 17% | 17% | 11.8 | 75% | 3.2 | 50% | 28.7 | 100% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 55% |
| 8 |  ML Vitebsk | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 13.2 | 100% | 3.8 | 75% | 27.8 | 75% | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 63% |
| 9 |  Bate Borisov | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 2.0 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 11.8 | 100% | 3.7 | 33% | 25.3 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 10 |  Slavia Mozyr | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 10.2 | 50% | 4.2 | 75% | 26.5 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 11 |  Dinamo Minsk | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 12.2 | 100% | 3.0 | 33% | 27.8 | 75% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 60% |
| 12 |  Belshina | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.2 | 83% | 17% | 17% | 11.4 | 80% | 2.6 | 40% | 21.8 | 60% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 13 |  FC Dnepr Mogilev | 7 | 4 | 0% | 0.6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2.1 | 57% | 43% | 14% | 10.5 | 83% | 2.7 | 17% | 22.5 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 14 |  Torpedo Zhodino | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.3 | 50% | 33% | 33% | 10.2 | 75% | 3.2 | 75% | 30.5 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 54% |
| 15 | Naftan | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4.2 | 100% | 67% | 50% | 10.2 | 60% | 1.8 | 0% | 21.4 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 43% |
| 16 | Arsenal (Belarus) | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 3.1 | 86% | 71% | 29% | 8.1 | 14% | 1.6 | 14% | 20.2 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 48% |