Naftan vs Bate Borisov Result & Analysis

The model points to an away win as the clear favourite, rating Bate Borisov at 62% to triumph against Naftan’s 14% home advantage and 23% draw chance. That edge stems from Bate’s strong away form - they average three goals scored and only 0.67 conceded on the road - versus Naftan’s weaker home performance, where they have not scored in the last five matches and concede an average of three. The expected total of 2.7 goals aligns with the model’s most likely total of two, a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Bate Borisov, carrying a 12.1% chance. Naftan’s home scoring is nil, conceding three, while Bate’s away scoring is three, conceding less than one. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls at 94.2%, Under 23.5 fouls at 87.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 78.3% (hit), Over 1.5 at 76.4% (miss), Over 2.5 cards at 76.4% (miss), Under 21.5 fouls at 76.2%, Over 8.5 corners at 76.0% (hit), and Under 3.5 at 71.1% (hit).

The pre-match favourite, Bate Borisov, failed to deliver as the match ended in a 0-0 draw, a shock that left the model’s prediction of an away win incorrect. Naftan, after three straight defeats, could not break the stalemate, while Bate, coming off a win, also failed to secure the win. The model had assigned a 62% probability to the away victory, yet the outcome was a draw. The model’s selections performed unevenly: Under 5.5 cards hit at 78.3%, Over 8.5 corners hit at 76.0%, and Under 3.5 hit at 71.1%. The other picks - Over 1.5, Over 2.5 cards - missed, each with 76.4% probability. The final score of 0-0 matched the most likely score of 0-2, which had a 12.1% chance, but the match itself was a clean sheet.