Naftan’s recent slump of three straight defeats is tempered by a strong home form that averages 2.44 goals scored and only 1.11 conceded against similar opposition, making a home win the model’s clear favourite with a 62% probability. Belshina, still struggling after a 0-1 loss away, averages 1.38 goals for and 1.54 against, so the model expects a 3-goal total, most likely 2-1 for the hosts at 9.7%. The expected total of 3.5 goals reflects the combined offensive output of both sides. The model’s pick is a home win, supported by the 62% home win, 21% draw and 17% away win probabilities. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 97.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.0%, Under 6.5 at 93.8%, Home +2 handicap at 93.2%, Under 5.5 cards at 93.1%, Home over 0.5 goals at 89.9%, Away under 2.5 goals at 88.8% and Over 19.5 fouls at 87.5%. These selections highlight the model’s confidence in a modest, home-side-dominated affair.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Naftan win
60.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Belshina win
18.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Naftan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.03
1.79
1.71
0.62
2.31
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
2.75
1.00
2.50
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.44
1.56
2.38
1.12
0.70
1.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belshina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.20
1.67
0.93
1.53
1.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
-
-
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.43
1.30
1.55
0.91
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (5)
2.40
0.80
2.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.6%
Under 1.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.0%
Under 2.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.1%
Under 3.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.8%
No
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
7.1%
1-0
6.8%
3-0
6.2%
2-2
5.6%
1-2
5.2%
Naftan goals ↓
Belshina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
3.2%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
1
6.8%
9.8%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
2
8.4%
9.8%
5.6%
2.2%
0.6%
3
6.2%
7.1%
4.1%
1.6%
0.5%
4
3.4%
3.9%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Naftan goals (down), columns = Belshina goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.67
FC Vitebsk
2.57
ML Vitebsk
2.00
Neman
1.67
Dinamo Brest
1.67
Bate Borisov
1.60
Dinamo Minsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
Belshina
1.00
Naftan
0.67
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.57
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.43
Naftan is 0.33 points worse than Belshina in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.25
Dinamo Brest
2.00
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.83
ML Vitebsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
FC Vitebsk
1.29
Naftan
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Bate Borisov
1.00
Neman
1.00
Belshina
0.83
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.71
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.71
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
Naftan is 0.33 goals better than Belshina in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.14
ML Vitebsk
0.50
FC Gomel
0.50
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.67
Neman
0.67
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Bate Borisov
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Slavia Mozyr
1.20
Belshina
1.33
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.43
Baranovichi
1.43
Torpedo Zhodino
1.67
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.43
Naftan
3.00
Naftan is 1.67 goals worse than Belshina in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
ML Vitebsk
63%
Dinamo Minsk
60%
Neman
58%
FC Gomel
55%
Torpedo Zhodino
54%
Dinamo Brest
52%
FC Dnepr Mogilev
50%
Slavia Mozyr
49%
Arsenal (Belarus)
48%
FC Minsk
48%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
47%
Bate Borisov
46%
FC Vitebsk
46%
Baranovichi
44%
Belshina
43%
Naftan
43%
Naftan and Belshina are level in average possession (both 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Naftan
For 4.8 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 11.6 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Belshina
For 3.2 · Against 8.2 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 11.4 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Naftan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
12.0
9.0
2.2
2.2
2.3
21.4
20.0
22.3
vs Stronger (18)
10.5
10.0
11.0
1.8
1.6
2.0
21.0
21.0
21.0
vs Similar (32)
10.0
14.0
8.0
2.5
2.5
2.5
21.7
19.0
23.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
100%
33%
22%
25%
19%
20%
0%
33%
% under line
40%
0%
67%
78%
75%
81%
80%
100%
67%
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belshina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
8.0
12.2
0.6
0.5
0.8
21.8
15.0
23.5
vs Stronger (6)
15.0
-
15.0
0.7
0.0
2.0
17.0
-
17.0
vs Similar (35)
10.5
8.0
11.3
0.8
0.7
0.9
23.0
15.0
25.7
vs Weaker (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
80%
0%
100%
8%
4%
12%
60%
0%
75%
% under line
20%
100%
0%
92%
96%
88%
40%
100%
25%
This opponent (Naftan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bate Borisov
11.8
Baranovichi
11.8
FC Gomel
11.8
ML Vitebsk
11.7
FC Isloch Minsk R.
11.0
Dinamo Brest
11.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.9
Slavia Mozyr
10.8
Torpedo Zhodino
10.2
Naftan
10.2
FC Dnepr Mogilev
10.0
FC Vitebsk
9.8
FC Minsk
9.7
Arsenal (Belarus)
9.0
Neman
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.8
ML Vitebsk
4.3
Bate Borisov
3.6
Slavia Mozyr
3.4
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.4
Dinamo Minsk
3.2
Neman
3.1
FC Gomel
3.1
FC Vitebsk
3.1
Naftan
3.0
FC Minsk
2.9
Dinamo Brest
2.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.8
Baranovichi
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ML Vitebsk
31.5
Torpedo Zhodino
30.5
FC Gomel
28.7
Baranovichi
28.2
Dinamo Brest
27.8
Slavia Mozyr
27.0
Bate Borisov
26.2
Dinamo Minsk
26.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
25.8
FC Dnepr Mogilev
22.5
Neman
21.8
Belshina
21.8
Arsenal (Belarus)
21.4
Naftan
21.4
FC Vitebsk
20.2
FC Minsk
17.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
75.9%
Under 9.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
32.7%
Under 3.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.2%
Under 21.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Naftan or Draw
81.7%
Avg Implied -
60%
22%
18%
covers Naftan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naftan or Belshina
78.3%
Avg Implied -
60%
22%
18%
covers Naftan + Belshina
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Belshina
40.0%
Avg Implied -
60%
22%
18%
covers Draw + Belshina
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Naftan over/under 0.5
Over
88.8%
Under
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5
Over
64.4%
Under
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5
Over
37.5%
Under
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 3.5
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 0.5
Over
68.5%
Under
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 1.5
Over
32.2%
Under
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 2.5
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Naftan, so a minus line means Naftan give that many goals of a start and Belshina receive them. At -1, Naftan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Naftan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Naftan)
Naftan -2
20.1%
Draw -2
18.3%
Belshina +2
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Naftan)
Naftan -1
38.3%
Draw -1
21.7%
Belshina +1
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Naftan)
Naftan +1
81.7%
Draw +1
11.0%
Belshina -1
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Naftan)
Naftan +2
92.7%
Draw +2
5.1%
Belshina -2
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Naftan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.20
0.86
1.07
0.25
1.31
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.58
0.50
1.67
0.33
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.94
1.12
0.62
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belshina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.67
0.47
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.57
0.64
0.45
0.58
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
0.75
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Naftan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Naftan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.93
0.64
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.17
0.50
0.83
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.61
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belshina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.67
1.00
0.47
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.74
0.91
0.45
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Naftan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 9.5 corners
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
Naftan and Belshina have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
NAF (4)
€0m
Naftan and Belshina have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Naftan and Belshina have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Naftan and Belshina have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
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FC Vitebsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Dinamo Brest
Neman
FC Minsk
Baranovichi
FC Gomel
ML Vitebsk
Bate Borisov
Slavia Mozyr
Dinamo Minsk
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Torpedo Zhodino
Arsenal (Belarus)