Naftan’s recent form at home has been bleak, losing three straight matches and conceding two goals in their last outing against FC Vitebsk. Dinamo Minsk, however, has shown resilience on the road, winning one of their last five games and keeping only one goal against Baranovichi. The model therefore rates an away win as the clear favourite, with a 74% probability. The draw sits at 18% and the home win at 8%. Dinamo’s away scoring average of 1.7 goals per game against weaker opposition contrasts sharply with Naftan’s 0.5 goals scored at home, while Naftan concedes 1.67 goals per match and Dinamo concedes only 0.3 away. The expected total goals is 3.0, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 13.9% chance. The model’s selections include an 80.1% chance of over 1.5 goals, a 76.4% chance of over 8.5 corners, a 95.7% chance of under 5.5 cards, an 89.0% chance of under 4.5 cards, a 75.5% chance of under 3.5 cards, and a 74.0% chance of an away win.
Results analysis
The win extends Dinamo Minsk’s recent run, while Naftan’s streak of defeats continues. The final score was 1-2, confirming the model’s pre-match favourite of an away win, a pick that was correct. The model had given the away side a 74% probability of triumph. Its selections also proved largely accurate: Under 5.5 cards hit at 95.7%, Under 4.5 cards at 89.0%, Over 1.5 at 80.1%, Under 3.5 cards at 75.5%, and the Away win itself at 74.0%. All five outcomes settled as predicted, underscoring the model’s strong performance for this match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Naftan win✗ Miss
8.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk win✓ Hit
74.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Naftan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.87
0.93
2.00
1.33
1.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
2.33
0.50
1.67
1.17
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.33
1.56
1.22
2.22
1.44
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.57
1.62
0.56
1.36
0.57
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.71
1.00
0.60
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.95
0.42
2.22
0.56
1.70
0.30
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.6%
Under 2.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.7%
No
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
13.9%
0-1
11.3%
0-3
10.7%
1-2 ✓
9.0%
1-1
8.6%
1-3
6.9%
0-4
6.1%
0-0
6.0%
Naftan goals ↓
Dinamo Minsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
11%
14%
11%
6.1%
1
2.6%
8.6%
9.0%
6.9%
4.0%
2
1.1%
2.5%
2.9%
2.2%
1.3%
3
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Naftan goals (down), columns = Dinamo Minsk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.27
Neman
2.17
Torpedo Zhodino
2.07
Dinamo Brest
1.63
FC Vitebsk
1.57
FC Gomel
1.47
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.33
FC Slutsk
1.30
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.27
Slavia Mozyr
1.17
Smorgon
1.07
Naftan
1.00
FC Minsk
0.93
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.73
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.60
Niva
0.00
Naftan is 1.27 points worse than Dinamo Minsk in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Brest
2.07
Dinamo Minsk
1.67
Neman
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.50
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Gomel
1.23
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.20
Smorgon
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.10
Naftan
1.00
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.97
Slavia Mozyr
0.93
FC Minsk
0.93
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.90
FC Slutsk
0.87
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.63
Niva
0.50
Naftan is 0.67 goals worse than Dinamo Minsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Minsk
0.43
Neman
0.63
Torpedo Zhodino
0.70
FC Vitebsk
0.83
FC Gomel
0.93
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.00
Slavia Mozyr
1.10
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.20
Dinamo Brest
1.23
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Slutsk
1.37
Naftan
1.41
FC Minsk
1.47
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.50
Smorgon
1.70
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.93
Niva
2.50
Naftan is 0.97 goals worse than Dinamo Minsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 0.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Naftan
For 4.6 · Against 8.6 · Total 13.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Minsk
For 2.8 · Against 5.8 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 8.0 · Total 16.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Naftan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
13.1
12.7
13.6
2.9
2.6
3.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (18)
12.1
11.4
12.8
3.2
3.0
3.3
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
13.9
13.5
14.3
2.7
2.3
3.1
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
83%
92%
73%
34%
32%
36%
-
-
-
% under line
17%
8%
27%
66%
68%
64%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.4
9.1
2.2
2.1
2.2
16.5
18.0
15.0
vs Stronger (4)
9.0
-
9.0
1.5
2.0
1.0
15.0
-
15.0
vs Similar (12)
9.6
10.7
8.0
2.4
2.0
3.2
18.0
18.0
-
vs Weaker (34)
9.9
10.3
9.5
2.1
2.2
2.1
-
-
-
% over line
53%
70%
33%
34%
35%
33%
0%
0%
0%
% under line
47%
30%
67%
66%
65%
67%
100%
100%
100%
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
13.1
Dinamo Brest
11.2
Bate Borisov
10.8
Slavia Mozyr
10.4
FC Slutsk
10.2
FC Gomel
10.2
Torpedo Zhodino
10.1
Smorgon
10.1
Dinamo Minsk
9.9
FC Isloch Minsk R.
9.6
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.5
Neman
9.2
FC Minsk
9.1
FC Vitebsk
8.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bate Borisov
4.1
Slavia Mozyr
4.0
FC Minsk
3.9
Shakhter Soligorsk
3.8
Smorgon
3.8
Naftan
3.7
FC Vitebsk
3.6
Dinamo Brest
3.6
FC Gomel
3.5
Torpedo Zhodino
3.5
Dinamo Minsk
3.4
FC Isloch Minsk R.
3.4
FC Slutsk
3.3
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.2
Neman
3.1
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Zhodino
27.0
Neman
22.2
FC Minsk
19.0
Bate Borisov
19.0
Dinamo Minsk
16.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
65.5%
Under 9.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Naftan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.40
1.00
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.92
0.33
1.00
0.67
0.83
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.78
0.44
1.00
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
0.81
0.38
0.64
0.36
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.29
0.60
0.20
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.95
0.32
1.00
0.44
0.90
0.20
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Naftan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Naftan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.53
1.00
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.42
0.17
0.67
0.50
2.17
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.78
0.78
1.22
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.20
0.81
0.19
0.71
0.21
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.43
0.40
0.40
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
1.00
0.11
1.22
0.11
0.80
0.10
Clean sheet %
80% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Naftan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5 cards
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away win
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dinamo Minsk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Steven Alfred33%
Raymond Adeola25%
Aleksei Gavrilovich20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Dmitri Podstrelov0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Rai Lopes0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Steven Alfred67%
Daniil Kulikov40%
Aleksei Gavrilovich40%
Vladislav Kalinin40%
Trofim Melnichenko25%
Dmitri Podstrelov20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Pavel Sedko20%
Nikita Demchenko17%
Vadim Pigas17%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Rai Lopes0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Boni Amian0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rai Lopes17%
Vadim Pigas17%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Aleksei Gavrilovich0%
Dmitri Podstrelov0%
Gleb Zherdev0%
Steven Alfred0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Steven Alfred67%
Dmitri Podstrelov20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Aleksei Gavrilovich0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Rai Lopes0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
Naftan's squad is €7m less valuable than Dinamo Minsk's (€2m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
Naftan's attack is €3m less valuable than Dinamo Minsk's (€0m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Naftan's midfield is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Minsk's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
Naftan's defence is €3m less valuable than Dinamo Minsk's (€1m vs €3m).
Belarus: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
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Neman
Torpedo Zhodino
Dinamo Brest
FC Vitebsk
FC Gomel
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Bate Borisov
FC Slutsk
Arsenal (Belarus)
Slavia Mozyr
Smorgon
FC Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Niva