This opponent (Lens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lens
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.43
1.81
1.12
1.50
1.79
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.33
1.27
1.25
1.00
1.43
1.57
vs Weaker (13)
2.15
1.62
2.57
1.29
1.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.5%
Under 1.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.7%
@ 2.17+9.8%
Under 2.5
46.3%
@ 1.70-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.4%
Under 3.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.0%
0-1
7.5%
0-0
7.1%
1-0
6.9%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
5.9%
Nantes goals ↓
Lens goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
7.5%
6.4%
3.1%
1.1%
1
6.9%
13%
8.7%
4.2%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.0%
5.9%
2.9%
1.1%
3
2.5%
3.6%
2.7%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.8%
1.2%
0.9%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nantes goals (down), columns = Lens goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.26
Marseille
1.87
Monaco
1.82
Nice
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.66
Lens
1.63
Lyon
1.63
Lille
1.45
Nantes
1.45
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Reims
1.21
Montpellier
1.13
Angers
1.08
Estac Troyes
1.00
Clermont Foot
0.95
Lorient
0.95
Saint Etienne
0.84
Bordeaux
0.82
Metz
0.82
Nantes is 0.18 points worse than Lens in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.63).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.37
Rennes
2.16
Lyon
1.74
Monaco
1.71
Marseille
1.66
Lens
1.63
Strasbourg
1.58
Nantes
1.45
Nice
1.37
Bordeaux
1.37
Stade Brestois 29
1.29
Montpellier
1.29
Lille
1.26
Angers
1.16
Reims
1.13
Saint Etienne
1.11
Clermont Foot
1.00
Estac Troyes
0.97
Metz
0.92
Lorient
0.92
Nantes is 0.18 goals worse than Lens in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nice
0.95
Paris Saint Germain
0.95
Marseille
1.00
Rennes
1.05
Monaco
1.05
Strasbourg
1.13
Reims
1.16
Lille
1.26
Nantes
1.26
Lens
1.26
Lyon
1.34
Estac Troyes
1.39
Angers
1.45
Stade Brestois 29
1.50
Montpellier
1.61
Lorient
1.66
Clermont Foot
1.82
Metz
1.82
Saint Etienne
2.03
Bordeaux
2.39
Nantes and Lens are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nantes
For 4.1 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.3 · Against 9.9 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lens
For 4.9 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 8.2 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nantes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.2
9.8
4.2
4.1
4.2
26.3
25.5
27.2
vs Stronger (24)
9.5
9.3
9.6
4.5
4.5
4.4
25.2
25.2
25.3
vs Similar (21)
9.9
9.4
10.3
3.9
3.5
4.2
26.7
24.9
28.4
vs Weaker (5)
8.0
7.5
8.3
4.2
4.5
4.0
29.8
30.0
29.7
% over line
52%
48%
56%
74%
64%
84%
78%
76%
80%
% under line
48%
52%
44%
26%
36%
16%
22%
24%
20%
This opponent (Lens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lens
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.5
10.8
4.7
4.3
5.0
24.5
24.7
24.3
vs Stronger (2)
10.5
13.0
8.0
5.0
4.0
6.0
25.5
21.0
30.0
vs Similar (27)
10.2
9.5
10.9
4.7
4.4
4.9
23.3
23.8
22.7
vs Weaker (21)
10.0
9.1
10.9
4.7
4.3
5.1
26.0
26.3
25.8
% over line
52%
46%
58%
70%
73%
67%
68%
73%
62%
% under line
48%
54%
42%
30%
27%
33%
32%
27%
38%
This opponent (Nantes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lyon
10.2
Montpellier
10.1
Lens
10.1
Saint Etienne
10.0
Bordeaux
10.0
Paris Saint Germain
9.9
Strasbourg
9.8
Nice
9.7
Marseille
9.7
Metz
9.7
Stade Brestois 29
9.6
Nantes
9.5
Lorient
9.3
Lille
9.2
Angers
9.2
Rennes
9.2
Reims
9.1
Estac Troyes
8.9
Clermont Foot
8.8
Monaco
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lens
4.7
Monaco
4.6
Estac Troyes
4.5
Marseille
4.5
Lille
4.4
Metz
4.4
Montpellier
4.3
Saint Etienne
4.2
Nantes
4.2
Lorient
4.1
Reims
3.9
Lyon
3.9
Rennes
3.9
Angers
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.9
Bordeaux
3.8
Paris Saint Germain
3.8
Nice
3.8
Strasbourg
3.6
Clermont Foot
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
28.2
Metz
26.3
Nantes
26.3
Saint Etienne
26.2
Monaco
25.8
Montpellier
25.4
Rennes
25.0
Angers
24.9
Lens
24.5
Lille
24.3
Strasbourg
24.3
Lorient
24.3
Bordeaux
24.1
Marseille
24.1
Clermont Foot
24.0
Lyon
23.9
Reims
23.7
Stade Brestois 29
23.7
Nice
23.5
Paris Saint Germain
22.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.9%
Under 9.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
66.9%
Under 3.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
63.8%
Under 21.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nantes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.86
0.29
1.00
0.29
0.71
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.25
0.86
0.29
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lens
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
0.88
0.56
0.79
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.62
0.71
1.43
vs Weaker (13)
1.23
0.69
1.43
0.57
1.00
0.83
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nantes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nantes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.73
0.60
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
0.57
0.43
0.57
0.71
0.57
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.92
0.86
0.71
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lens
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.94
0.56
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.27
0.75
0.38
0.71
0.14
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.92
1.14
0.71
0.67
1.17
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nantes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nantes · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Killian Corredor33%
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Bahmed Deuff33%
Frédéric Guilbert25%
Mathieu Cafaro25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahereba Guirassy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Wilitty Younoussa33%
Mathieu Cafaro25%
Lucas Perrin25%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Ibrahima Sissoko0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ibrahima Sissoko50%
Bahereba Guirassy25%
Maxime Dupé0%
Frédéric Guilbert0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Kelvin Amian0%
Lucas Perrin0%
Killian Corredor0%
Johann Lepenant0%
Wilitty Younoussa0%
Dehmaine Tabibou0%
Louis Leroux0%
Bahmed Deuff0%
Lens · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Odsonne Édouard35%
Florian Thauvin35%
Allan Saint-Maximin31%
Wesley Saïd26%
Abdallah Sima22%
Rayan Fofana17%
Adrien Thomasson11%
Ismaelo Ganiou10%
Amadou Haidara10%
Saud Abdulhamid10%
Mamadou Sangare9%
Andrija Bulatovic9%
Samson Baidoo8%
Matthieu Udol8%
Ruben Aguilar7%
Florian Sotoca7%
Morgan Guilavogui6%
Deiver Machado0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Jonathan Gradit0%
Malang Sarr0%
Robin Risser0%
Nidal Čelik0%
Fode Sylla0%
Anthony Bermont0%
Kyllian Antonio0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nidal Čelik33%
Adrien Thomasson31%
Deiver Machado20%
Jonathan Gradit20%
Ruben Aguilar17%
Arthur Masuaku17%
Morgan Guilavogui17%
Florian Thauvin16%
Saud Abdulhamid16%
Allan Saint-Maximin15%
Mamadou Sangare15%
Kyllian Antonio14%
Abdallah Sima11%
Ismaelo Ganiou10%
Malang Sarr10%
Matthieu Udol10%
Andrija Bulatovic9%
Anthony Bermont9%
Wesley Saïd9%
Robin Risser8%
Samson Baidoo8%
Florian Sotoca7%
Odsonne Édouard6%
Amadou Haidara0%
Fode Sylla0%
Rayan Fofana0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Florian Thauvin22%
Matthieu Udol20%
Adrien Thomasson19%
Saud Abdulhamid19%
Andrija Bulatovic18%
Allan Saint-Maximin15%
Kyllian Antonio14%
Mamadou Sangare12%
Abdallah Sima11%
Amadou Haidara10%
Odsonne Édouard9%
Samson Baidoo8%
Ruben Aguilar7%
Wesley Saïd6%
Florian Sotoca3%
Robin Risser3%
Malang Sarr3%
Deiver Machado0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Jonathan Gradit0%
Morgan Guilavogui0%
Ismaelo Ganiou0%
Nidal Čelik0%
Fode Sylla0%
Anthony Bermont0%
Rayan Fofana0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Wesley Saïd32%
Allan Saint-Maximin23%
Florian Thauvin22%
Deiver Machado20%
Odsonne Édouard18%
Matthieu Udol15%
Abdallah Sima11%
Rayan Fofana10%
Mamadou Sangare9%
Adrien Thomasson8%
Ismaelo Ganiou7%
Florian Sotoca7%
Morgan Guilavogui6%
Malang Sarr5%
Andrija Bulatovic5%
Samson Baidoo4%
Saud Abdulhamid3%
Amadou Haidara0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Ruben Aguilar0%
Jonathan Gradit0%
Robin Risser0%
Nidal Čelik0%
Fode Sylla0%
Anthony Bermont0%
Kyllian Antonio0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
NIC (28)
€152m
SE (30)
€93m
LOR (24)
€87m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
REI (30)
€72m
SB2 (20)
€64m
MET (26)
€43m
ET (23)
€36m
MON (24)
€29m
CF (21)
€15m
Nantes's squad is €106m less valuable than Lens's (€82m vs €187m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
SE (10)
€54m
LEN (8)
€52m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
LOR (8)
€20m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
ET (7)
€7m
CF (5)
€2m
Nantes's attack is €21m less valuable than Lens's (€31m vs €52m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
REN (5)
€44m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
LEN (5)
€24m
SB2 (6)
€20m
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
CF (4)
€3m
Nantes's midfield is €7m less valuable than Lens's (€16m vs €24m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
LOR (11)
€35m
NAN (10)
€34m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
Nantes's defence is €77m less valuable than Lens's (€34m vs €112m).
France: Ligue 1 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Paris Saint Germain
Marseille
Monaco
Nice
Rennes
Strasbourg
Lyon
Lille
Stade Brestois 29
Reims
Montpellier
Angers
Estac Troyes
Lorient
Clermont Foot
Saint Etienne
Metz
Bordeaux