In their upcoming Serbia: Prva Liga match on August 15, Napredak will host Metalac GM. The recent form of Napredak is a storyline to watch, as they have been on a 2-game winning run. However, their defensive numbers are a concern, having conceded an average of 1.5 goals per match at home against stronger opponents.
Napredak is the favourite to win, with a 40% chance of securing a home win, while Metalac GM has a 28% chance of an away win and a 32% chance of a draw. The expected total number of goals is 2.1, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 14.7%.
Napredak's home scoring has averaged 0.8 goals per match, while their home conceding has averaged 1.5 goals per match against stronger opponents. Metalac GM's away scoring has averaged 0.67 goals per match against weaker opponents, while their away conceding has averaged 1 goal per match.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5, with a 83.9% probability. The other model selections include the Home win, with a 40% probability, the Draw, with a 32% probability, and the Away win, with a 28% probability.
Results analysis
Napredak's win extends their 3-game winning run, following a 2-1 victory over Metalac GM. The final score was 2-1, confirming the actual result of the match. The model correctly picked Napredak as the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 40%. The model's selection of a home win was correct, as they came out on top. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with an 83.9% probability, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a 28% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Napredak win✓ Hit
39.9%
Avg Implied 60.0% · @ 1.50
Edge
-20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Dafabet
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Draw✗ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.51
Edge
+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.80
Marathonbet
3.62
BetVictor
3.60
Dafabet
3.55
Betano
3.50
Metalac GM win✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied 14.3% · @ 6.28
Edge
+13.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.97
Marathonbet
6.80
Dafabet
6.60
BetVictor
6.50
10Bet
6.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Napredak
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.97
0.80
1.60
0.80
2.33
vs Stronger (15)
0.87
2.40
1.00
1.75
0.71
3.14
vs Similar (14)
0.71
1.64
0.57
1.43
0.86
1.86
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalac GM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metalac GM
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.03
1.25
1.19
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.96
1.07
1.20
1.27
0.69
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Napredak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.4%
@ 1.36-3.6%
Under 1.5
36.6%
@ 2.77+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.39
1xBet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Marathonbet
1.32
Under
Marathonbet
2.88
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.66
Pinnacle
2.64
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.1%
@ 2.21-6.6%
Under 2.5
64.9%
@ 1.58+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.35
Pinnacle
2.27
1xBet
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Under
Marathonbet
1.65
Betfair
1.60
Betano
1.60
BetVictor
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.1%
@ 3.98-6.7%
Under 3.5
83.9%
@ 1.18+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.20
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.74
Under
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.15
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.1%
@ 2.30+3.2%
No
56.9%
@ 1.53-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
2.38
William Hil
2.38
1xBet
2.31
Betfair
2.25
Marathonbet
2.18
No
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.52
William Hil
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%@ 7.08+8.7%
0-0
13.6%@ 7.08+7.6%
1-0
13.0%@ 4.79+4.1%
0-1
10.1%@ 11.83+6.5%
2-0
8.4%@ 5.62+0.8%
2-1 ✓
7.8%@ 8.42+2.8%
1-2
6.2%@ 20.00+4.1%
0-2
5.3%@ 32.50+4.0%
Napredak goals ↓
Metalac GM goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
10%
5.3%
1.6%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.2%
1.9%
0.4%
2
8.4%
7.8%
3.6%
1.1%
0.3%
3
3.3%
3.0%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.0%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Napredak goals (down), columns = Metalac GM goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Napredak is 1.00 points better than Metalac GM in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Napredak and Metalac GM are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Napredak is 0.67 goals better than Metalac GM in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Napredak
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
1.23
0.20
1.07
0.20
1.40
vs Stronger (15)
0.13
1.53
0.12
1.25
0.14
1.86
vs Similar (14)
0.29
1.00
0.29
0.86
0.29
1.14
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalac GM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metalac GM
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.53
0.38
0.62
0.21
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.25
0.54
0.33
0.67
0.15
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Napredak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Napredak over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napredak over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napredak over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Napredak
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.73
0.87
0.88
0.50
0.57
1.29
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.64
0.29
0.57
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalac GM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metalac GM
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.88
0.56
0.50
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.54
0.87
0.60
0.54
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Napredak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Napredak over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napredak over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napredak over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
83.9%
1.18
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.15
-
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Napredak · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andrija Majdevac28%
Marko Šarić18%
Nemanja Đeković14%
Nikola Bogdanovski14%
Miloš Vulić13%
Uroš Sremčević8%
Mateja Bubanj6%
Stefan Hajdin6%
Nebojša Bastajić4%
Aleksandar Lutovac4%
Stefan Bukorac4%
Igor Jeličić0%
Lazar Zličić0%
Nikola Vukajlović0%
Miloš Tošeski0%
Uroš Ignjatović0%
Ivan Šubert0%
Vladimir Savić0%
Vladimir Miletić0%
Jovan Ilić0%
Dragan Čubra0%
Luka Laban0%
Nikola Marinković0%
Luka Drobnjak0%
Filip Krstić0%
Dragan Bojat0%
Strahinja Ristić0%
Pavle Mihajlović0%
Nikola Skrobonja0%
Lazar Balević0%
Lazar Miladinović0%
Đorđe Kotlajić0%
Vasil Tasovski0%
Novak Stevanović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pavle Mihajlović67%
Stefan Bukorac39%
Filip Krstić32%
Nikola Vukajlović25%
Luka Laban25%
Vladimir Miletić24%
Uroš Ignjatović23%
Luka Drobnjak19%
Andrija Majdevac17%
Miloš Vulić17%
Aleksandar Lutovac17%
Strahinja Ristić17%
Vasil Tasovski17%
Miloš Tošeski15%
Jovan Ilić15%
Lazar Zličić14%
Nemanja Đeković14%
Nikola Skrobonja14%
Ivan Šubert12%
Stefan Hajdin11%
Nikola Bogdanovski10%
Nebojša Bastajić8%
Vladimir Savić8%
Dragan Čubra8%
Dragan Bojat8%
Lazar Balević7%
Marko Šarić0%
Igor Jeličić0%
Nikola Marinković0%
Mateja Bubanj0%
Uroš Sremčević0%
Lazar Miladinović0%
Đorđe Kotlajić0%
Novak Stevanović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lazar Zličić14%
Nebojša Bastajić12%
Aleksandar Lutovac12%
Mateja Bubanj12%
Uroš Ignjatović12%
Dragan Čubra8%
Uroš Sremčević8%
Miloš Tošeski8%
Jovan Ilić8%
Dragan Bojat8%
Andrija Majdevac7%
Stefan Hajdin6%
Vladimir Miletić4%
Nikola Bogdanovski3%
Miloš Vulić0%
Stefan Bukorac0%
Marko Šarić0%
Igor Jeličić0%
Nikola Vukajlović0%
Ivan Šubert0%
Vladimir Savić0%
Nemanja Đeković0%
Luka Laban0%
Nikola Marinković0%
Luka Drobnjak0%
Filip Krstić0%
Strahinja Ristić0%
Pavle Mihajlović0%
Nikola Skrobonja0%
Lazar Balević0%
Lazar Miladinović0%
Đorđe Kotlajić0%
Vasil Tasovski0%
Novak Stevanović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andrija Majdevac14%
Aleksandar Lutovac12%
Stefan Hajdin11%
Nebojša Bastajić4%
Nikola Vukajlović4%
Filip Krstić4%
Nikola Bogdanovski3%
Miloš Vulić3%
Stefan Bukorac0%
Marko Šarić0%
Igor Jeličić0%
Lazar Zličić0%
Miloš Tošeski0%
Uroš Ignjatović0%
Ivan Šubert0%
Vladimir Savić0%
Vladimir Miletić0%
Jovan Ilić0%
Dragan Čubra0%
Nemanja Đeković0%
Luka Laban0%
Nikola Marinković0%
Mateja Bubanj0%
Uroš Sremčević0%
Luka Drobnjak0%
Dragan Bojat0%
Strahinja Ristić0%
Pavle Mihajlović0%
Nikola Skrobonja0%
Lazar Balević0%
Lazar Miladinović0%
Đorđe Kotlajić0%
Vasil Tasovski0%
Novak Stevanović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →