Napredak’s return to home ground after a narrow loss to TSC Backa Topola sets up a finely balanced clash, with the model favouring a home win. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly open game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.4 % chance. Napredak averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded at home against similarly ranked opposition, while Semendrija 1924, on the road, scores 1.07 and concedes 1.07 against comparable teams. The probabilities are 37 % for a home win, 30 % for a draw and 32 % for an away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (98.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1 %), Under 5.5 (96.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.2 %), Under 4.5 (90.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (89.2 %) and Home under 2.5 goals (87.0 %). Each selection carries its own probability, reflecting the tight contest expected.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Napredak win
36.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 win
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Napredak
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.77
0.93
1.33
0.80
2.20
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
2.08
1.14
1.29
0.83
3.00
vs Similar (15)
0.73
1.67
0.75
1.38
0.71
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Semendrija 1924) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Semendrija 1924
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.07
2.20
1.07
1.07
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.59
1.07
2.15
1.08
1.07
1.07
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
2.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Napredak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.8%
Under 1.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.2%
Under 2.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.5%
Under 3.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.4%
No
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.7%
1-0
10.1%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
6.2%
Napredak goals ↓
Semendrija 1924 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.5%
6.2%
2.4%
0.7%
1
10%
14%
7.6%
2.9%
0.8%
2
6.9%
8.0%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
3
2.8%
3.2%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Napredak goals (down), columns = Semendrija 1924 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Napredak is 0.33 points worse than Semendrija 1924 in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Napredak is 0.83 goals worse than Semendrija 1924 in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Napredak is 0.17 goals worse than Semendrija 1924 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Napredak or Draw
66.8%
Avg Implied -
36%
30%
33%
covers Napredak + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Napredak or Semendrija 1924
69.5%
Avg Implied -
36%
30%
33%
covers Napredak + Semendrija 1924
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Semendrija 1924
63.7%
Avg Implied -
36%
30%
33%
covers Draw + Semendrija 1924
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Napredak over/under 0.5
Over
70.4%
Under
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napredak over/under 1.5
Over
34.3%
Under
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napredak over/under 2.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napredak over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 0.5
Over
68.4%
Under
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 1.5
Over
32.0%
Under
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 2.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Napredak, so a minus line means Napredak give that many goals of a start and Semendrija 1924 receive them. At -1, Napredak must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Napredak win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Napredak)
Napredak -2
5.4%
Draw -2
10.8%
Semendrija 1924 +2
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Napredak)
Napredak -1
16.2%
Draw -1
20.1%
Semendrija 1924 +1
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Napredak)
Napredak +1
66.8%
Draw +1
19.0%
Semendrija 1924 -1
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Napredak)
Napredak +2
85.8%
Draw +2
9.7%
Semendrija 1924 -2
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Napredak
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
1.03
0.20
0.87
0.20
1.20
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
1.31
0.14
0.86
0.17
1.83
vs Similar (15)
0.27
0.93
0.25
0.88
0.29
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Semendrija 1924) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Semendrija 1924
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
1.13
0.27
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.37
0.92
0.31
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
2.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Napredak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Napredak over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napredak over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napredak over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Napredak
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.73
0.47
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
0.77
1.00
0.43
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.73
0.50
0.50
0.43
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Semendrija 1924) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Semendrija 1924
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.07
0.80
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.93
0.70
1.23
0.77
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Napredak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Napredak over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napredak over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napredak over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Napredak · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andrija Majdevac28%
Marko Šarić18%
Nemanja Đeković14%
Nikola Bogdanovski14%
Miloš Vulić13%
Uroš Sremčević8%
Mateja Bubanj6%
Stefan Hajdin6%
Nebojša Bastajić4%
Aleksandar Lutovac4%
Stefan Bukorac4%
Igor Jeličić0%
Lazar Zličić0%
Nikola Vukajlović0%
Miloš Tošeski0%
Uroš Ignjatović0%
Ivan Šubert0%
Vladimir Savić0%
Vladimir Miletić0%
Jovan Ilić0%
Dragan Čubra0%
Luka Laban0%
Nikola Marinković0%
Luka Drobnjak0%
Filip Krstić0%
Dragan Bojat0%
Strahinja Ristić0%
Pavle Mihajlović0%
Nikola Skrobonja0%
Lazar Balević0%
Lazar Miladinović0%
Đorđe Kotlajić0%
Vasil Tasovski0%
Novak Stevanović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pavle Mihajlović67%
Stefan Bukorac39%
Filip Krstić32%
Nikola Vukajlović25%
Luka Laban25%
Vladimir Miletić24%
Uroš Ignjatović23%
Luka Drobnjak19%
Andrija Majdevac17%
Miloš Vulić17%
Aleksandar Lutovac17%
Strahinja Ristić17%
Vasil Tasovski17%
Miloš Tošeski15%
Jovan Ilić15%
Lazar Zličić14%
Nemanja Đeković14%
Nikola Skrobonja14%
Ivan Šubert12%
Stefan Hajdin11%
Nikola Bogdanovski10%
Nebojša Bastajić8%
Vladimir Savić8%
Dragan Čubra8%
Dragan Bojat8%
Lazar Balević7%
Marko Šarić0%
Igor Jeličić0%
Nikola Marinković0%
Mateja Bubanj0%
Uroš Sremčević0%
Lazar Miladinović0%
Đorđe Kotlajić0%
Novak Stevanović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lazar Zličić14%
Nebojša Bastajić12%
Aleksandar Lutovac12%
Mateja Bubanj12%
Uroš Ignjatović12%
Dragan Čubra8%
Uroš Sremčević8%
Miloš Tošeski8%
Jovan Ilić8%
Dragan Bojat8%
Andrija Majdevac7%
Stefan Hajdin6%
Vladimir Miletić4%
Nikola Bogdanovski3%
Miloš Vulić0%
Stefan Bukorac0%
Marko Šarić0%
Igor Jeličić0%
Nikola Vukajlović0%
Ivan Šubert0%
Vladimir Savić0%
Nemanja Đeković0%
Luka Laban0%
Nikola Marinković0%
Luka Drobnjak0%
Filip Krstić0%
Strahinja Ristić0%
Pavle Mihajlović0%
Nikola Skrobonja0%
Lazar Balević0%
Lazar Miladinović0%
Đorđe Kotlajić0%
Vasil Tasovski0%
Novak Stevanović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andrija Majdevac14%
Aleksandar Lutovac12%
Stefan Hajdin11%
Nebojša Bastajić4%
Nikola Vukajlović4%
Filip Krstić4%
Nikola Bogdanovski3%
Miloš Vulić3%
Stefan Bukorac0%
Marko Šarić0%
Igor Jeličić0%
Lazar Zličić0%
Miloš Tošeski0%
Uroš Ignjatović0%
Ivan Šubert0%
Vladimir Savić0%
Vladimir Miletić0%
Jovan Ilić0%
Dragan Čubra0%
Nemanja Đeković0%
Luka Laban0%
Nikola Marinković0%
Mateja Bubanj0%
Uroš Sremčević0%
Luka Drobnjak0%
Dragan Bojat0%
Strahinja Ristić0%
Pavle Mihajlović0%
Nikola Skrobonja0%
Lazar Balević0%
Lazar Miladinović0%
Đorđe Kotlajić0%
Vasil Tasovski0%
Novak Stevanović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (24)
€10m
NAP (24)
€7m
JAV (21)
€5m
FSZ (21)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
OB1 (17)
€2m
DUB (17)
€1m
TEL (7)
€1m
Napredak's squad is €4m more valuable than Semendrija 1924's (€7m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (9)
€5m
JAV (9)
€2m
NAP (9)
€2m
FSZ (8)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
OB1 (6)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Napredak and Semendrija 1924 have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (4)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
JAV (2)
€1m
FSZ (4)
€1m
NAP (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
OB1 (3)
€0m
TEL (1)
€0m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
Napredak and Semendrija 1924 have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAP (12)
€5m
TBT (11)
€4m
JAV (10)
€3m
FSZ (9)
€2m
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
OB1 (8)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Napredak's defence is €3m more valuable than Semendrija 1924's (€5m vs €1m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
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Borac Cacak
TSC Backa Topola
OFK Vršac
Javor
Dubočica
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Loznica
FK Vozdovac
Teleoptik
OFK Bor 1919
Naftagas
Metalac GM
Jedinstvo Ub
Grafičar