Naxxar Lions are the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 92% chance to a home win, 7% for a draw and only 2% for a Zebbug Rangers victory. The prediction reflects the Lions’ strong home form and the Rangers’ struggle away, especially against stronger opposition where they average less than one goal scored and concede over two. The expected total is 4.0 goals, with the most likely total being 6 + and a 20% chance of that outcome. The single most probable scoreline is 3-0 for the Lions, with a 14.1% probability.
The Lions’ home attack is potent, while the Rangers’ away defence is weak, as shown by the Rangers’ 0.92 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game at home. The model’s suggested picks include an Away under 3.5 goals at 99.9%, Home +2 handicap at 99.7%, Away under 2.5 goals at 99.0%, Home or Draw at 98.4%, Home +1 handicap at 98.4%, Home over 0.5 goals at 97.1%, Under 7.5 at 95.1% and Home or Away at 93.4%. These selections underscore the likelihood of a decisive Lions victory and a low-scoring Rangers performance.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Naxxar Lions win
91.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
6.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers win
1.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Naxxar Lions
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.57
1.46
1.00
1.18
2.00
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.86
0.67
1.00
1.25
2.50
vs Similar (23)
1.39
1.48
1.70
1.00
1.15
1.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zebbug Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.23
1.00
2.43
1.12
2.06
vs Stronger (25)
0.96
2.28
1.00
2.31
0.92
2.25
vs Similar (5)
1.60
2.00
1.00
4.00
1.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.9%
Under 1.5
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
75.8%
Under 2.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
56.2%
Under 3.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
34.3%
No
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
14.1%
4-0
12.5%
2-0
11.9%
5-0
8.9%
1-0
6.4%
3-1
6.1%
4-1
5.4%
6-0
5.2%
Naxxar Lions goals ↓
Zebbug Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.2%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
1
6.4%
3.2%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
2
12%
5.1%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
3
14%
6.1%
1.3%
0.2%
0.0%
4
12%
5.4%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Naxxar Lions goals (down), columns = Zebbug Rangers goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Naxxar Lions is 1.82 points better than Zebbug Rangers in terms of average points per game (2.73 vs 0.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Naxxar Lions is 2.19 goals better than Zebbug Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (3.23 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Naxxar Lions is 1.20 goals better than Zebbug Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 2.05).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Naxxar Lions or Draw
98.4%
Avg Implied -
92%
7%
2%
covers Naxxar Lions + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions or Zebbug Rangers
93.4%
Avg Implied -
92%
7%
2%
covers Naxxar Lions + Zebbug Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zebbug Rangers
8.2%
Avg Implied -
92%
7%
2%
covers Draw + Zebbug Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5
Over
97.1%
Under
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5
Over
86.9%
Under
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5
Over
68.7%
Under
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 3.5
Over
47.3%
Under
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 3.5
Over
0.1%
Under
99.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Naxxar Lions, so a minus line means Naxxar Lions give that many goals of a start and Zebbug Rangers receive them. At -1, Naxxar Lions must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Naxxar Lions win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Naxxar Lions)
Naxxar Lions -2
59.8%
Draw -2
19.1%
Zebbug Rangers +2
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Naxxar Lions)
Naxxar Lions -1
78.8%
Draw -1
12.9%
Zebbug Rangers +1
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Naxxar Lions)
Naxxar Lions +1
98.4%
Draw +1
1.3%
Zebbug Rangers -1
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Naxxar Lions)
Naxxar Lions +2
99.7%
Draw +2
0.3%
Zebbug Rangers -2
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Naxxar Lions
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.54
0.46
0.71
0.76
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.86
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.57
0.60
0.40
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zebbug Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.87
0.21
0.86
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (25)
0.28
0.88
0.23
0.77
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.80
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Naxxar Lions
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.92
0.54
0.47
1.24
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.91
1.10
0.60
0.54
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Zebbug Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zebbug Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.37
0.79
1.57
0.62
1.19
vs Stronger (25)
0.68
1.40
0.77
1.54
0.58
1.25
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.20
1.00
2.00
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Naxxar Lions) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Naxxar Lions over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naxxar Lions over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zebbug Rangers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home -1 handicap
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
Naxxar Lions's squad is €1m more valuable than Zebbug Rangers's (€1m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Naxxar Lions and Zebbug Rangers have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Naxxar Lions and Zebbug Rangers have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
Naxxar Lions and Zebbug Rangers have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Attard
Sirens
Mgarr United
Zurrieq
Tarxien Rainbows
St. Andrews
Pietà Hotspurs
Melita
Swieqi United
Santa Lucía
Fgura United
Gudja United
Victoria Hotspurs
Vittoriosa Stars