This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.96
2.00
0.86
1.23
1.08
vs Stronger (10)
1.30
1.50
1.60
1.80
1.00
1.20
vs Similar (9)
1.78
0.89
2.50
0.25
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.38
2.00
0.40
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.3%
Under 2.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
10.7%
0-0
9.2%
1-2
9.2%
0-2 â
8.9%
1-0
7.0%
2-1
6.4%
2-2
4.8%
Nea Salamis goals ↓
AEK Larnaca goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
11%
8.9%
4.5%
1.7%
1
7.0%
14%
9.2%
4.6%
1.7%
2
4.2%
6.4%
4.8%
2.4%
0.9%
3
1.5%
2.2%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nea Salamis goals (down), columns = AEK Larnaca goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Aris
2.06
Apoel Nicosia
1.97
AEK Larnaca
1.83
Apollon Limassol
1.77
Pafos
1.75
Anorthosis
1.57
Nea Salamis
1.45
Omonia Nicosia
1.36
AEL
1.26
Karmiotissa
1.20
Doxa
0.97
Enosis
0.93
Akritas
0.85
Olympiakos
0.70
Nea Salamis is 0.38 points worse than AEK Larnaca in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.83).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Aris
1.81
Pafos
1.67
AEK Larnaca
1.53
Apoel Nicosia
1.44
Apollon Limassol
1.34
Anorthosis
1.30
Nea Salamis
1.27
Omonia Nicosia
1.19
Enosis
1.00
Akritas
0.93
Karmiotissa
0.90
AEL
0.90
Doxa
0.80
Olympiakos
0.75
Nea Salamis is 0.25 goals worse than AEK Larnaca in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.53).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Apoel Nicosia
0.72
Aris
0.78
Pafos
0.83
AEL
1.03
AEK Larnaca
1.03
Apollon Limassol
1.06
Anorthosis
1.07
Omonia Nicosia
1.17
Enosis
1.30
Karmiotissa
1.35
Nea Salamis
1.38
Doxa
1.40
Olympiakos
1.55
Akritas
1.82
Nea Salamis is 0.35 goals worse than AEK Larnaca in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.03).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Omonia Nicosia
56%
AEK Larnaca
55%
Anorthosis
55%
Akritas
55%
Olympiakos
52%
Enosis
52%
Karmiotissa
50%
Apoel Nicosia
49%
Doxa
46%
AEL
45%
Pafos
45%
Aris
44%
Nea Salamis
40%
Nea Salamis is 15.1 percentage points worse than AEK Larnaca in terms of average possession (40% vs 55%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Nea Salamis
For 3.8 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.3
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 3.5 · Total 6.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 17.7 · Total 30.2
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Larnaca
For 3.6 · Against 4.1 · Total 7.7
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 14.5 · Total 29.3
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nea Salamis
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (15)
9.3
9.0
9.7
2.5
2.7
2.4
30.2
33.3
27.0
vs Stronger (5)
8.0
8.0
-
2.4
4.0
0.0
30.5
30.5
-
vs Similar (9)
10.0
11.0
9.7
2.9
2.3
3.2
30.0
39.0
27.0
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
33%
67%
40%
43%
38%
83%
100%
67%
% under line
50%
67%
33%
60%
57%
62%
17%
0%
33%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (27)
9.1
8.8
9.4
3.0
3.2
2.7
29.3
32.1
26.4
vs Stronger (10)
9.7
10.8
8.6
5.2
5.8
4.6
29.8
33.5
26.0
vs Similar (9)
3.5
3.5
-
1.1
2.5
0.0
31.5
31.5
-
vs Weaker (8)
10.2
9.0
10.7
2.2
1.2
4.0
27.2
28.0
27.0
% over line
44%
50%
38%
48%
50%
46%
86%
100%
71%
% under line
56%
50%
62%
52%
50%
54%
14%
0%
29%
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Akritas
12.2
AEL
11.2
Enosis
10.7
Anorthosis
10.7
Aris
10.6
Karmiotissa
10.5
Doxa
9.8
Nea Salamis
9.3
Apollon Limassol
9.1
AEK Larnaca
9.1
Pafos
9.0
Omonia Nicosia
9.0
Olympiakos
8.8
Apoel Nicosia
7.9
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Nea Salamis
6.3
Apoel Nicosia
5.6
AEL
5.5
Anorthosis
5.3
Pafos
5.2
Olympiakos
5.2
AEK Larnaca
5.0
Karmiotissa
5.0
Aris
5.0
Omonia Nicosia
4.8
Akritas
4.5
Apollon Limassol
4.3
Doxa
4.2
Enosis
3.5
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Apoel Nicosia
31.3
Karmiotissa
30.3
Nea Salamis
30.2
AEL
30.0
Doxa
29.3
AEK Larnaca
29.3
Pafos
28.8
Olympiakos
28.0
Anorthosis
28.0
Aris
28.0
Enosis
26.5
Apollon Limassol
24.6
Omonia Nicosia
23.8
Akritas
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
49.8%
Under 9.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
77.3%
Under 3.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
95.3%
Under 21.5
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nea Salamis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.73
0.29
1.00
0.38
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.20
0.00
1.67
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.56
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.74
0.44
1.00
0.43
0.46
0.46
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.44
1.25
0.25
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
56% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nea Salamis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nea Salamis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.86
0.57
0.62
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.60
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.56
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Larnaca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
0.52
1.00
0.43
0.77
0.62
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
0.70
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.60
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.44
1.25
0.00
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.38
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
59% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nea Salamis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 1.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Nea Salamis · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andreas Frangos33%
Alexandros Michael25%
Apostolos Vellios20%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Fiorin Durmishaj0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad TomoviÄ0%
Serge Leuko0%
Yassine Bahassa0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Victor Fernandez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Konstantinos Sergiou67%
Serge Leuko67%
Danny Bejarano40%
Carlitos33%
Yassine Bahassa20%
Apostolos Vellios0%
Alexandros Michael0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Fiorin Durmishaj0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Nenad TomoviÄ0%
Miguelito0%
Victor Fernandez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fiorin Durmishaj25%
Yassine Bahassa20%
Victor Fernandez20%
Apostolos Vellios0%
Alexandros Michael0%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad TomoviÄ0%
Serge Leuko0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fiorin Durmishaj25%
Apostolos Vellios20%
Alexandros Michael0%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad TomoviÄ0%
Serge Leuko0%
Yassine Bahassa0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Victor Fernandez0%
AEK Larnaca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ33%
Rafael Lopes17%
Ivan TriÄkovski12%
Victor Olatunji12%
Omri Altman11%
Ãngel GarcÃa11%
Oier10%
Mikel GonzÃĄlez0%
Roberto Rosales0%
Marin JakoliÅĄ0%
Kypros Christoforou0%
Nikos Englezou0%
Nenad TomoviÄ0%
Gus Ledes0%
Pere Pons0%
Nemanja Nikolics0%
Kenan PiriÄ0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ0%
Rafail Mamas0%
Ismael Casas0%
Giorgos Naoum0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ãngel GarcÃa44%
Pere Pons33%
Roberto Rosales30%
Imad Faraj20%
Rafail Mamas20%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ18%
Kenan PiriÄ17%
Ivan TriÄkovski12%
Kypros Christoforou12%
Victor Olatunji12%
Omri Altman11%
Oier10%
Nenad TomoviÄ8%
Mikel GonzÃĄlez0%
Marin JakoliÅĄ0%
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ0%
Nikos Englezou0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Gus Ledes0%
Nemanja Nikolics0%
Ismael Casas0%
Giorgos Naoum0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Imad Faraj20%
Nikos Englezou14%
Roberto Rosales10%
Gus Ledes8%
Kenan PiriÄ8%
Mikel GonzÃĄlez0%
Ivan TriÄkovski0%
Marin JakoliÅĄ0%
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ0%
Kypros Christoforou0%
Omri Altman0%
Nenad TomoviÄ0%
Ãngel GarcÃa0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Oier0%
Pere Pons0%
Nemanja Nikolics0%
Victor Olatunji0%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ0%
Rafail Mamas0%
Ismael Casas0%
Giorgos Naoum0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ17%
Ivan TriÄkovski12%
Victor Olatunji12%
Omri Altman11%
Gus Ledes8%
Mikel GonzÃĄlez0%
Roberto Rosales0%
Marin JakoliÅĄ0%
Kypros Christoforou0%
Nikos Englezou0%
Nenad TomoviÄ0%
Ãngel GarcÃa0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Oier0%
Pere Pons0%
Nemanja Nikolics0%
Kenan PiriÄ0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ0%
Rafail Mamas0%
Ismael Casas0%
Giorgos Naoum0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OLY (14)
€4m
KAR (12)
€3m
ENO (9)
€1m
AKR (5)
€1m
DOX (1)
€0m
Nea Salamis's squad is €11m less valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€5m vs €16m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OLY (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
ENO (3)
€0m
AKR (2)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
Nea Salamis's attack is €5m less valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€2m vs €7m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
OLY (2)
€0m
ENO (2)
€0m
AKR (0)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
Nea Salamis and AEK Larnaca have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OLY (8)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
ENO (4)
€1m
AKR (3)
€1m
DOX (1)
€0m
Nea Salamis's defence is €5m less valuable than AEK Larnaca's (€2m vs €7m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Aris
Apoel Nicosia
Pafos
Anorthosis
Apollon Limassol
Omonia Nicosia
AEL
Karmiotissa
Doxa
Enosis
Akritas
Olympiakos