Nea Salamis are tipped to lift a home win, a result that the model deems most likely and which carries a 57% probability. The clash is expected to see 2.4 goals on average, with a 27% chance that the total will settle on exactly two. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Nea Salamis, a 14.1% chance. Nea Salamis, playing at home against a team of similar strength, have been scoring 2.08 goals per game while conceding 1.17. AEL, on the road and against similar opposition, have been netting only 0.56 goals and allowing 1.56. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 93.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 87.6%, Over 21.5 fouls at 85.6%, Under 3.5 at 78.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 77.1%, Over 23.5 fouls at 74.3%, and Over 3.5 cards at 73.7%. The match’s probabilities are 57% home win, 27% draw and 16% away win.
Results analysis
Nea Salamis’ recent draw streak has now been broken, as they secured a 2-1 victory over AEL, confirming the model’s predicted home win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 57% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The match saw a total of three goals, matching the most likely scoreline of 2-0 and the expected total of 2.4 goals. Every suggested selection hit: Over 19.5 fouls at 93.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 87.6%, Over 21.5 fouls at 85.6%, Under 3.5 at 78.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 77.1%, Over 23.5 fouls at 74.3%, and Over 3.5 cards at 73.7%. The outcome aligned with the model’s comprehensive forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nea Salamis win✓ Hit
56.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AEL win✗ Miss
16.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nea Salamis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.43
2.00
1.14
1.12
1.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
2.17
vs Similar (20)
1.90
1.40
2.08
1.17
1.62
1.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.40
1.53
1.33
0.47
1.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
1.00
0.50
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (20)
1.20
1.60
1.73
1.64
0.56
1.56
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.50
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.1%
Under 2.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.4%
Under 3.5
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.4%
No
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.1%
1-1
12.5%
2-0
12.3%
0-0
10.6%
2-1 ✓
9.2%
3-0
6.6%
0-1
5.9%
3-1
4.9%
Nea Salamis goals ↓
AEL goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
5.9%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
1
14%
13%
4.3%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.2%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
3
6.6%
4.9%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.7%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nea Salamis goals (down), columns = AEL goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Larnaca
2.03
Apoel Nicosia
2.03
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Aris
1.81
Pafos
1.72
Apollon Limassol
1.65
Anorthosis
1.47
AEL
1.35
Nea Salamis
1.27
Ethnikos Achna
1.25
Karmiotissa
1.00
Doxa
0.88
Othellos
0.82
AE Zakakiou
0.45
Nea Salamis is 0.08 points worse than AEL in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Apoel Nicosia
1.75
Aris
1.75
Ethnikos Achna
1.75
Omonia Nicosia
1.72
Pafos
1.67
Apollon Limassol
1.60
AEK Larnaca
1.58
AEL
1.52
Karmiotissa
1.45
Nea Salamis
1.30
Anorthosis
1.28
Othellos
1.20
AE Zakakiou
1.00
Doxa
0.85
Nea Salamis is 0.22 goals worse than AEL in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.52).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Apoel Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.86
Pafos
0.92
Aris
0.94
Apollon Limassol
0.95
Omonia Nicosia
1.03
Anorthosis
1.17
Nea Salamis
1.52
AEL
1.70
Doxa
1.93
Karmiotissa
1.93
Othellos
1.93
Ethnikos Achna
1.98
AE Zakakiou
2.50
Nea Salamis is 0.18 goals better than AEL in terms of goals conceded per game (1.52 vs 1.70).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
56%
Aris
56%
Apollon Limassol
55%
Anorthosis
54%
Karmiotissa
53%
AEK Larnaca
52%
Nea Salamis
52%
Apoel Nicosia
51%
AEL
49%
AE Zakakiou
48%
Othellos
44%
Omonia Nicosia
44%
Ethnikos Achna
42%
Doxa
40%
Nea Salamis is 3.2 percentage points better than AEL in terms of average possession (52% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nea Salamis
For 3.6 · Against 7.8 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 12.5 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEL
For 4.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 3.1 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 13.4 · Total 28.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nea Salamis
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (48)
9.4
9.4
9.3
3.9
4.0
3.9
27.0
27.4
26.8
vs Stronger (13)
9.8
9.2
10.2
4.1
4.6
3.8
25.7
28.2
24.0
vs Similar (31)
9.2
9.4
9.0
3.8
3.9
3.8
27.0
26.9
27.1
vs Weaker (4)
9.7
11.0
9.0
4.2
3.0
5.5
31.7
29.0
33.0
% over line
47%
44%
50%
62%
65%
60%
78%
76%
80%
% under line
53%
56%
50%
38%
35%
40%
22%
24%
20%
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (48)
9.1
9.4
8.7
3.5
4.0
3.0
27.6
25.8
29.5
vs Stronger (12)
7.5
7.8
7.2
4.2
5.3
3.2
29.2
32.5
26.0
vs Similar (27)
9.5
9.9
8.9
3.3
3.9
2.7
26.4
22.8
32.6
vs Weaker (9)
9.6
9.5
9.6
3.3
2.8
3.8
28.7
30.5
28.0
% over line
42%
42%
41%
48%
58%
38%
79%
67%
94%
% under line
58%
58%
59%
52%
42%
62%
21%
33%
6%
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Othellos
12.8
Karmiotissa
9.6
Anorthosis
9.6
Nea Salamis
9.4
Aris
9.4
Apollon Limassol
9.2
AEK Larnaca
9.2
Omonia Nicosia
9.2
AEL
9.1
Ethnikos Achna
8.9
Doxa
8.9
Pafos
8.8
Apoel Nicosia
8.6
AE Zakakiou
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ethnikos Achna
5.5
Pafos
5.4
Apoel Nicosia
5.4
Apollon Limassol
5.0
Othellos
5.0
Nea Salamis
5.0
Doxa
4.9
Aris
4.8
AEK Larnaca
4.8
AE Zakakiou
4.8
AEL
4.7
Anorthosis
4.6
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
Karmiotissa
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Apoel Nicosia
29.7
Anorthosis
28.1
Doxa
27.9
AEL
27.6
Nea Salamis
27.0
AEK Larnaca
26.9
Othellos
26.6
AE Zakakiou
26.4
Pafos
26.3
Aris
26.0
Apollon Limassol
25.9
Karmiotissa
25.8
Ethnikos Achna
25.5
Omonia Nicosia
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
45.4%
Under 9.5
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.7%
Under 3.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.6%
Under 21.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nea Salamis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.93
0.50
0.44
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.14
1.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.75
1.00
0.58
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.73
0.60
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.75
0.73
0.73
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nea Salamis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nea Salamis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.07
0.64
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.86
1.00
1.00
0.17
0.83
vs Similar (20)
1.05
0.65
1.08
0.58
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.80
0.73
0.13
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.85
1.00
0.91
0.22
0.78
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.80
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nea Salamis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nea Salamis · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andreas Frangos33%
Alexandros Michael25%
Apostolos Vellios20%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Fiorin Durmishaj0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad Tomović0%
Serge Leuko0%
Yassine Bahassa0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Victor Fernandez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Konstantinos Sergiou67%
Serge Leuko67%
Danny Bejarano40%
Carlitos33%
Yassine Bahassa20%
Apostolos Vellios0%
Alexandros Michael0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Fiorin Durmishaj0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Nenad Tomović0%
Miguelito0%
Victor Fernandez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fiorin Durmishaj25%
Yassine Bahassa20%
Victor Fernandez20%
Apostolos Vellios0%
Alexandros Michael0%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad Tomović0%
Serge Leuko0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fiorin Durmishaj25%
Apostolos Vellios20%
Alexandros Michael0%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad Tomović0%
Serge Leuko0%
Yassine Bahassa0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Victor Fernandez0%
AEL
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Georgi Minchev33%
Evdoras Sylvestros33%
Andreas Makris33%
Djalma Silva33%
Ahmad Mendes Moreira25%
George Marsh0%
Javier Mendoza0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Slobodan Medojević0%
Miguel Oliveira0%
Slavoljub Srnić0%
Fabrice Kah0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vasilios Papafotis33%
Djalma Silva33%
Slobodan Medojević25%
Slavoljub Srnić25%
George Marsh0%
Javier Mendoza0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Evdoras Sylvestros0%
Andreas Makris0%
Ahmad Mendes Moreira0%
Miguel Oliveira0%
Fabrice Kah0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Javier Mendoza67%
Evdoras Sylvestros33%
Djalma Silva33%
Ahmad Mendes Moreira25%
George Marsh0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Andreas Makris0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Slobodan Medojević0%
Miguel Oliveira0%
Slavoljub Srnić0%
Fabrice Kah0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ahmad Mendes Moreira50%
Georgi Minchev33%
Djalma Silva33%
George Marsh0%
Javier Mendoza0%
Evdoras Sylvestros0%
Andreas Makris0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Slobodan Medojević0%
Miguel Oliveira0%
Slavoljub Srnić0%
Fabrice Kah0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
EA (2)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
Nea Salamis's squad is €4m less valuable than AEL's (€5m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
KAR (3)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
Nea Salamis's attack is €2m less valuable than AEL's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
EA (0)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
Nea Salamis and AEL have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
Nea Salamis's defence is €2m less valuable than AEL's (€2m vs €3m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Apoel Nicosia
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Nicosia
Apollon Limassol
Aris
Pafos
Anorthosis
Ethnikos Achna
Karmiotissa
Doxa
Othellos
AE Zakakiou