Nea Salamis face AEL in a match that feels razor-thin, with the model favouring an away win at 39%. The odds for a home win sit at 35%, a draw at 26%, and the favourite result is the AEL victory. The expected total of goals is three, yet the most likely total is two, a 23% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.2% probability. Nea Salamis, at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, average 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded; AEL, playing away, average 1.64 scored and 1.45 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 90.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 88.5%, Over 1.5 goals at 81.6% (hit), Over 21.5 fouls at 80.8%, Over 3.5 cards at 75.1%, and Under 11.5 corners at 71.3%. Nea Salamis’ recent draw against Olympiakos and AEL’s two-game winning run add intrigue, but the balance remains finely tipped toward the away side.
Results analysis
The match saw AEL extend their two-game winning run, finishing 0-2 to secure the away victory. The model’s favourite, an away win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 39%. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with an 81.6% probability. The final score matched the actual result, confirming the predicted outcome. Nea Salamis’ recent form, a draw after a mixed run, contrasted with AEL’s strong away form and 1-2 win streak. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 fell short, but the overall prediction proved accurate, underscoring the model’s reliability in this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nea Salamis win✗ Miss
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
AEL win✓ Hit
38.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nea Salamis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.87
0.86
1.86
1.62
1.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
2.62
0.60
2.80
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (19)
1.63
1.74
1.12
1.38
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.80
2.13
1.73
1.47
1.87
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.83
1.33
2.33
0.67
3.33
vs Similar (22)
2.09
1.59
2.55
1.73
1.64
1.45
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.6%
Under 1.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.3%
Under 2.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.9%
Under 3.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
1-0
6.0%
0-0
6.0%
0-2 ✓
5.9%
Nea Salamis goals ↓
AEL goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
6.4%
5.9%
3.1%
1.2%
1
6.0%
12%
8.6%
4.5%
1.8%
2
5.2%
8.1%
6.3%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.6%
4.0%
3.1%
1.6%
0.6%
4
0.9%
1.5%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nea Salamis goals (down), columns = AEL goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pafos
2.28
Aris
2.08
AEK Larnaca
1.89
Omonia Nicosia
1.89
Anorthosis
1.58
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.28
AEL
1.18
Ethnikos Achna
1.18
Enosis
1.06
Omonia Aradippou
1.06
Karmiotissa
1.03
Nea Salamis
0.79
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.42
Nea Salamis is 0.39 points worse than AEL in terms of average points per game (0.79 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Pafos
1.86
Aris
1.83
Apoel Nicosia
1.64
AEK Larnaca
1.61
Anorthosis
1.52
Ethnikos Achna
1.33
AEL
1.15
Apollon Limassol
1.03
Omonia Aradippou
0.97
Enosis
0.94
Nea Salamis
0.94
Karmiotissa
0.91
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.70
Nea Salamis is 0.21 goals worse than AEL in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pafos
0.58
AEK Larnaca
0.83
Aris
0.86
Apoel Nicosia
1.00
Apollon Limassol
1.08
Omonia Nicosia
1.11
Anorthosis
1.27
Enosis
1.45
AEL
1.61
Ethnikos Achna
1.61
Karmiotissa
1.73
Omonia Aradippou
1.76
Nea Salamis
1.88
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.97
Nea Salamis is 0.27 goals worse than AEL in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Apoel Nicosia
58%
Ethnikos Achna
58%
Pafos
56%
AEK Larnaca
53%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Anorthosis
50%
Omonia Nicosia
49%
Omonia Aradippou
46%
Nea Salamis
46%
Aris
46%
Omonia 29is Maiou
45%
AEL
44%
Enosis
40%
Karmiotissa
39%
Nea Salamis is 1.3 percentage points better than AEL in terms of average possession (46% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nea Salamis
For 4.3 · Against 7.2 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 11.0 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEL
For 5.5 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 14.3 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nea Salamis
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.4
11.4
3.7
3.6
3.7
24.2
23.3
25.0
vs Stronger (14)
10.3
10.0
10.6
3.9
3.3
4.4
23.3
24.0
22.4
vs Similar (31)
10.3
8.7
11.7
3.6
3.8
3.5
24.3
23.1
25.5
vs Weaker (5)
11.5
11.0
12.0
3.4
3.5
3.3
25.5
22.5
28.5
% over line
58%
37%
79%
56%
50%
62%
68%
58%
79%
% under line
42%
63%
21%
44%
50%
38%
32%
42%
21%
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.2
9.9
3.5
3.4
3.6
26.7
26.3
27.1
vs Stronger (12)
9.6
9.2
10.0
4.4
3.8
5.0
25.7
25.8
25.6
vs Similar (32)
10.1
10.5
9.7
3.2
3.2
3.2
27.4
26.5
28.3
vs Weaker (6)
10.5
10.5
10.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
25.5
26.5
24.5
% over line
60%
56%
65%
52%
48%
56%
83%
83%
82%
% under line
40%
44%
35%
48%
52%
44%
17%
17%
18%
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia Nicosia
10.3
Nea Salamis
9.9
AEL
9.8
Apollon Limassol
9.7
Omonia 29is Maiou
9.5
Aris
9.5
Apoel Nicosia
9.4
AEK Larnaca
9.4
Karmiotissa
9.3
Anorthosis
8.9
Enosis
8.9
Pafos
8.3
Ethnikos Achna
8.3
Omonia Aradippou
7.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Omonia Aradippou
9.0
Omonia 29is Maiou
7.5
Apoel Nicosia
5.5
Aris
5.5
Pafos
5.3
Anorthosis
5.2
Apollon Limassol
5.2
Ethnikos Achna
5.1
Enosis
5.1
AEK Larnaca
5.0
Karmiotissa
4.8
Nea Salamis
4.6
AEL
4.6
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Apoel Nicosia
29.9
Anorthosis
29.1
Enosis
28.6
Omonia 29is Maiou
27.5
Omonia Aradippou
27.0
Karmiotissa
26.8
AEL
26.8
Ethnikos Achna
26.1
Pafos
25.8
Aris
25.7
AEK Larnaca
25.4
Apollon Limassol
25.3
Nea Salamis
24.8
Omonia Nicosia
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.4%
Under 9.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
75.1%
Under 3.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
80.8%
Under 21.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nea Salamis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.36
0.50
0.75
1.12
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.12
0.40
0.80
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.84
0.38
0.38
0.82
1.18
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.90
0.94
0.69
0.86
1.14
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.43
0.25
0.75
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (21)
1.19
0.81
1.27
0.73
1.10
0.90
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nea Salamis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nea Salamis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.03
0.50
1.36
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.50
0.20
2.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (19)
1.00
0.89
0.75
1.00
1.18
0.82
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEL
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.90
1.12
1.06
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.29
1.00
1.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.76
1.27
1.00
0.80
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nea Salamis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Nea Salamis
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andreas Frangos33%
Alexandros Michael25%
Apostolos Vellios20%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Fiorin Durmishaj0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad Tomović0%
Serge Leuko0%
Yassine Bahassa0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Victor Fernandez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Konstantinos Sergiou67%
Serge Leuko67%
Danny Bejarano40%
Carlitos33%
Yassine Bahassa20%
Apostolos Vellios0%
Alexandros Michael0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Fiorin Durmishaj0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Nenad Tomović0%
Miguelito0%
Victor Fernandez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fiorin Durmishaj25%
Yassine Bahassa20%
Victor Fernandez20%
Apostolos Vellios0%
Alexandros Michael0%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad Tomović0%
Serge Leuko0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fiorin Durmishaj25%
Apostolos Vellios20%
Alexandros Michael0%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad Tomović0%
Serge Leuko0%
Yassine Bahassa0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Victor Fernandez0%
AEL
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emmanuel Toku33%
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Facundo Constantini33%
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniil Lesovoy33%
Andreas Makris0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OA (18)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
O2M (10)
€3m
ENO (9)
€1m
EA (2)
€0m
Nea Salamis's squad is €4m less valuable than AEL's (€5m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OA (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
ENO (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
Nea Salamis's attack is €2m less valuable than AEL's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
OA (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
O2M (2)
€0m
ENO (2)
€0m
EA (0)
€0m
Nea Salamis and AEL have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OA (9)
€2m
O2M (6)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
ENO (4)
€1m
EA (1)
€0m
Nea Salamis's defence is €2m less valuable than AEL's (€2m vs €3m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Pafos
Aris
Omonia Nicosia
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
Anorthosis
Apollon Limassol
Ethnikos Achna
Enosis
Omonia Aradippou
Karmiotissa
Omonia 29is Maiou