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Neftchi Baku vs Turan Result & Analysis

Date: 05/03/2023
Time: 15:30
Final 4-0
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Vs
50%
30%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Turan
Turan
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neftchi Baku win✓ Hit
50.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Turan win✗ Miss
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W04L10W30W02L10W20W00D30W11DH·SƏB27/11H·QAR02/12A·TUR15/12H·ŞAM23/12A·SAB26/01H·ZIR01/02H·SUM05/02A·QAB10/02H·SƏB18/02A·QAR27/02
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.680.932.210.861.141.00
vs Stronger (3)0.672.670.004.001.002.00
vs Similar (12)1.251.001.670.830.831.17
vs Weaker (13)2.310.463.000.431.500.50
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TuranTuran

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L12L01L00D23L12L10W20W20W02LH·SAB29/11A·ZIR04/12H·NEF15/12A·QAB24/12H·QAR25/01A·SUM30/01A·ŞAM06/02H·KAP11/02A·SAB19/02H·ZIR24/02
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.791.210.921.580.670.83
vs Stronger (6)0.832.000.672.001.002.00
vs Similar (13)0.541.150.501.830.570.57
vs Weaker (5)1.400.402.000.670.500.00
Clean sheet %46% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.5%
Under 1.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.3%
Under 2.5
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
17.1%
Under 3.5
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.3%
No
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.9%
1-1
13.6%
0-0
12.9%
2-0
11.2%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
7.7%
3-0
5.2%
1-2
4.7%
Neftchi Baku goals ↓
Turan goals →
01234
013%7.7%3.4%0.9%0.2%
115%14%4.7%1.2%0.2%
211%8.5%3.3%0.8%0.2%
35.2%3.9%1.5%0.4%0.1%
41.8%1.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neftchi Baku goals (down), columns = Turan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.50
Sabah FA
2.25
Neftchi Baku
1.89
Qabala
1.39
Zira
1.39
Turan
1.08
Sumqayıt
0.86
Kapaz
0.86
Səbail
0.81
Şamaxı FK
0.69
Neftchi Baku is 0.81 points better than Turan in terms of average points per game (1.89 vs 1.08).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.53
Sabah FA
2.08
Neftchi Baku
1.75
Qabala
1.31
Zira
1.25
Turan
1.00
Kapaz
0.94
Səbail
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.72
Şamaxı FK
0.72
Neftchi Baku is 0.75 goals better than Turan in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.67
Qarabag
0.69
Neftchi Baku
1.06
Zira
1.28
Qabala
1.31
Turan
1.36
Şamaxı FK
1.44
Səbail
1.72
Kapaz
1.72
Sumqayıt
1.94
Neftchi Baku is 0.31 goals better than Turan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.36).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L00D10W02L00D00D00D10W10WH·SƏB27/11H·QAR02/12A·TUR15/12H·ŞAM23/12A·SAB26/01H·ZIR01/02H·SUM05/02A·QAB10/02H·SƏB18/02A·QAR27/02
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.250.790.210.360.29
vs Stronger (3)0.670.330.001.001.000.00
vs Similar (12)0.420.330.500.330.330.33
vs Weaker (13)0.690.151.140.000.170.33
Clean sheet %82% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TuranTuran

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D00D12L11D00D10W10W02LH·SAB29/11A·ZIR04/12H·NEF15/12A·QAB24/12H·QAR25/01A·SUM30/01A·ŞAM06/02H·KAP11/02A·SAB19/02H·ZIR24/02
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.380.670.580.920.170.42
vs Stronger (6)0.331.330.331.330.331.33
vs Similar (13)0.230.540.331.000.140.14
vs Weaker (5)0.800.201.330.330.000.00
Clean sheet %62% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W03L10W20W00D10W20W00D20W01LH·SƏB27/11H·QAR02/12A·TUR15/12H·ŞAM23/12A·SAB26/01H·ZIR01/02H·SUM05/02A·QAB10/02H·SƏB18/02A·QAR27/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.110.681.430.640.790.71
vs Stronger (3)0.002.330.003.000.002.00
vs Similar (12)0.830.671.170.500.500.83
vs Weaker (13)1.620.311.860.431.330.17
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TuranTuran

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L01L00D11D01L10W10W10W00DH·SAB29/11A·ZIR04/12H·NEF15/12A·QAB24/12H·QAR25/01A·SUM30/01A·ŞAM06/02H·KAP11/02A·SAB19/02H·ZIR24/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.420.540.330.670.500.42
vs Stronger (6)0.500.670.330.670.670.67
vs Similar (13)0.310.620.170.830.430.43
vs Weaker (5)0.600.200.670.330.500.00
Clean sheet %54% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Neftchi Baku's squad is €3m more valuable than Turan's (€13m vs €10m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Neftchi Baku and Turan have a similar attack value (both €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Neftchi Baku and Turan have a similar midfield value (both €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Neftchi Baku's defence is €1m more valuable than Turan's (€6m vs €5m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
NB wins
1
Draws
0
TUR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Neftchi Baku vs Turan · H/A from NB
DateH/AGameScore
15/12/22ATuran Vs NB0-1
08/10/22HNB Vs Turan0-0

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/02/23AQarabag Vs NB1-1
18/02/23HNB Vs Səbail3-0
10/02/23AQabala Vs NB0-0
05/02/23HNB Vs Sumqayıt2-0
01/02/23HNB Vs Zira1-0
26/01/23ASabah FA Vs NB2-0
23/12/22HNB Vs Şamaxı FK3-0
15/12/22ATuran Vs NB0-1
02/12/22HNB Vs Qarabag0-4
27/11/22HNB Vs Səbail3-1

TuranTuran

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/02/23HTUR Vs Zira0-2
19/02/23ASabah FA Vs TUR0-2
11/02/23HTUR Vs Kapaz2-0
06/02/23AŞamaxı FK Vs TUR0-1
30/01/23ASumqayıt Vs TUR2-1
25/01/23HTUR Vs Qarabag2-3
24/12/22AQabala Vs TUR0-0
15/12/22HTUR Vs Neftchi Baku0-1
04/12/22AZira Vs TUR2-1
29/11/22HTUR Vs Sabah FA0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWD1.96
HomeLWWWW2.43
AwayDWLDD1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %61%79%43%
AVG goals2.613.072.14
Over 1.5 %79%86%71%
Over 2.5 %54%71%36%
Over 3.5 %21%29%14%
Scored1.682.211.14
Conceded0.930.861.00
BTTS36%36%36%
Clean Sheet50%57%43%
Corners11.508.0015.00
Cards5.505.505.50
Turan
Turan
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWL1.08
HomeLLLWL0.83
AwayLDLWW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%25%33%
AVG goals2.002.501.50
Over 1.5 %58%75%42%
Over 2.5 %33%33%33%
Over 3.5 %21%33%8%
Scored0.790.920.67
Conceded1.211.580.83
BTTS29%33%25%
Clean Sheet46%25%67%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3690
78%
2.5
9125+66
3.2
81%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.50.7
-
2Sabah FASabah FA3681
69%
2.2
7524+51
2.8
78%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.10.7
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3668
56%
1.9
6338+25
2.8
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.81.1
-
4QabalaQabala3650
36%
1.4
4747+0
2.6
81%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.31.3
-
5ZiraZira3650
36%
1.4
4546-1
2.5
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.21.3
-
6TuranTuran3639
28%
1.1
3649-13
2.4
69%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.01.4
-
7KapazKapaz3631
17%
0.9
3462-28
2.7
78%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.91.7
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3631
22%
0.9
2670-44
2.7
69%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.71.9
-
9SəbailSəbail3629
19%
0.8
3262-30
2.6
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.7
-
10Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3625
11%
0.7
2652-26
2.2
61%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.71.4
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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