Neman’s defensive solidity is the story that opens this preview. Their home form shows they concede only half a goal on average while scoring 1.5, a sharp contrast to Baranovichi’s away record of 1.0 conceded and 0.5 scored against stronger opposition. The model picks a home win, with a 50% probability, a 30% chance of a draw and 19% for an away victory. The expected total goals is 2.1, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Neman, a 15.1% probability. The match is projected to be tight and low-scoring, with a 28% chance of exactly two goals.
The suggested selections are: Under 7.5 goals 99.8%, Under 6.599.4%, Away under 3.5 goals99.3%, Under 5.597.9%, Away under 2.5 goals95.9%, Home under 3.5 goals95.0%, Over 19.5 fouls94.1%, and Home +2 handicap93.9%. Neman are on a three-game winning run, having beaten Slavia Mozyr 1-0, while Baranovichi come off a win over Dinamo Minsk, also 1-0. The numbers point to a narrow victory for the home side.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Neman win
48.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi win
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Neman
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.20
1.40
0.60
1.13
1.80
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.23
1.25
0.58
0.80
2.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
1.14
1.50
0.50
1.80
1.40
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baranovichi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.90
1.81
1.12
2.14
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.86
1.09
1.69
1.31
2.11
0.78
vs Weaker (5)
3.20
0.20
3.00
0.50
3.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Neman) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
63.5%
Under 1.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
35.3%
Under 2.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.3%
Under 3.5
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.0%
No
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.9%
1-1
13.8%
0-0
13.4%
2-0
10.8%
2-1
8.4%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
4.9%
3-0
4.8%
Neman goals ↓
Baranovichi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
8.2%
3.7%
0.9%
0.2%
1
15%
14%
4.9%
1.3%
0.2%
2
11%
8.4%
3.3%
0.8%
0.2%
3
4.8%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.6%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neman goals (down), columns = Baranovichi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.67
FC Vitebsk
2.57
ML Vitebsk
2.00
Neman
1.67
Dinamo Brest
1.67
Bate Borisov
1.60
Dinamo Minsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
Belshina
1.00
Naftan
0.67
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.57
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.43
Neman is 0.38 points better than Baranovichi in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.25
Dinamo Brest
2.00
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.83
ML Vitebsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
FC Vitebsk
1.29
Naftan
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Bate Borisov
1.00
Neman
1.00
Belshina
0.83
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.71
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.71
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
Neman is 0.29 goals worse than Baranovichi in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.14
ML Vitebsk
0.50
FC Gomel
0.50
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.67
Neman
0.67
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Bate Borisov
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Slavia Mozyr
1.20
Belshina
1.33
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.43
Baranovichi
1.43
Torpedo Zhodino
1.67
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.43
Naftan
3.00
Neman is 0.76 goals better than Baranovichi in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
ML Vitebsk
63%
Dinamo Minsk
60%
Neman
58%
FC Gomel
55%
Torpedo Zhodino
54%
Dinamo Brest
52%
FC Dnepr Mogilev
50%
Slavia Mozyr
49%
Arsenal (Belarus)
48%
FC Minsk
48%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
47%
Bate Borisov
46%
FC Vitebsk
46%
Baranovichi
44%
Belshina
43%
Naftan
43%
Neman is 13.6 percentage points better than Baranovichi in terms of average possession (58% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Neman
For 4.6 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 12.8 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Baranovichi
For 4.4 · Against 7.4 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 13.2 · Total 28.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Neman
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
7.2
10.0
2.4
2.7
2.1
21.8
22.7
21.0
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
9.5
9.0
10.0
2.6
3.2
1.9
25.8
30.5
21.0
vs Weaker (15)
6.0
2.0
10.0
2.2
1.7
2.6
14.0
7.0
21.0
% over line
50%
25%
75%
30%
38%
23%
50%
67%
33%
% under line
50%
75%
25%
70%
62%
77%
50%
33%
67%
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baranovichi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.8
9.7
15.0
0.2
0.4
0.0
28.2
25.3
32.5
vs Stronger (4)
15.0
-
15.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
32.5
-
32.5
vs Similar (38)
9.7
9.7
-
0.3
0.6
0.0
25.3
25.3
-
vs Weaker (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
80%
67%
100%
2%
4%
0%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
20%
33%
0%
98%
96%
100%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Neman) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bate Borisov
11.8
Baranovichi
11.8
FC Gomel
11.8
ML Vitebsk
11.7
FC Isloch Minsk R.
11.0
Dinamo Brest
11.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.9
Slavia Mozyr
10.8
Torpedo Zhodino
10.2
Naftan
10.2
FC Dnepr Mogilev
10.0
FC Vitebsk
9.8
FC Minsk
9.7
Arsenal (Belarus)
9.0
Neman
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.8
ML Vitebsk
4.3
Bate Borisov
3.6
Slavia Mozyr
3.4
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.4
Dinamo Minsk
3.2
Neman
3.1
FC Gomel
3.1
FC Vitebsk
3.1
Naftan
3.0
FC Minsk
2.9
Dinamo Brest
2.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.8
Baranovichi
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ML Vitebsk
31.5
Torpedo Zhodino
30.5
FC Gomel
28.7
Baranovichi
28.2
Dinamo Brest
27.8
Slavia Mozyr
27.0
Bate Borisov
26.2
Dinamo Minsk
26.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
25.8
FC Dnepr Mogilev
22.5
Neman
21.8
Belshina
21.8
Arsenal (Belarus)
21.4
Naftan
21.4
FC Vitebsk
20.2
FC Minsk
17.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
67.7%
Under 9.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
37.2%
Under 3.5
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.6%
Under 21.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Neman or Draw
79.4%
Avg Implied -
49%
31%
21%
covers Neman + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neman or Baranovichi
69.2%
Avg Implied -
49%
31%
21%
covers Neman + Baranovichi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Baranovichi
51.4%
Avg Implied -
49%
31%
21%
covers Draw + Baranovichi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Neman over/under 0.5
Over
73.6%
Under
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 1.5
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 2.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 0.5
Over
54.0%
Under
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 1.5
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 2.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Neman, so a minus line means Neman give that many goals of a start and Baranovichi receive them. At -1, Neman must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Neman win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Neman)
Neman -2
8.7%
Draw -2
15.0%
Baranovichi +2
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Neman)
Neman -1
23.7%
Draw -1
24.8%
Baranovichi +1
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Neman)
Neman +1
79.4%
Draw +1
14.0%
Baranovichi -1
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Neman)
Neman +2
93.4%
Draw +2
5.1%
Baranovichi -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Neman
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.20
0.27
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.18
0.64
0.17
0.17
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.71
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baranovichi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.06
0.56
0.93
0.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.59
0.92
0.69
0.89
0.44
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Neman) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neman over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Neman
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
1.20
0.33
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.59
1.08
0.42
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.43
1.50
0.00
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baranovichi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
0.75
0.56
1.21
0.21
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.50
0.77
0.62
1.22
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.20
1.00
0.50
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Neman) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neman over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.6%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
Neman's squad is €2m more valuable than Baranovichi's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
NAF (4)
€0m
Neman and Baranovichi have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Neman's midfield is €1m more valuable than Baranovichi's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Neman and Baranovichi have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
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FC Vitebsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Dinamo Brest
FC Minsk
FC Gomel
ML Vitebsk
Bate Borisov
Slavia Mozyr
Dinamo Minsk
Belshina
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Torpedo Zhodino
Naftan
Arsenal (Belarus)