The match between Neman and Belshina is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities show a 34% chance for Neman, 30% for a draw, and 37% for Belshina, making the latter the most likely outcome. The expected total goals hover at 2.5, with the most probable total being two goals, a 27% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 14.1% probability, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest.
Neman, playing at home, has scored 1.5 goals per game and conceded 0.5 against stronger opponents, while Belshina, on the road, also averages 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded versus stronger teams. Both sides have shown recent form that hints at a competitive match: Neman on a three-game winning streak, Belshina coming off a draw.
The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 85.2%, Under 3.5 at 76.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.4%, and Over 1.5 at 72.2%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability.
The pre-match favourite, Belshina, failed to deliver as the match ended in a 2-2 draw, a result that stunned the pundits. The model had picked an away win with a 37% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 2-2 confirmed the actual result as a draw. The model’s other selections were mixed: Over 2.5 cards hit at 85.2%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 74.4%, and Over 1.5 hit at 72.2%, while Under 3.5 missed at 76.1%. Neman, riding a three-game winning streak, and Belshina, coming off a draw, both showed why the outcome was so unpredictable.
Neman| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.22 | 1.60 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 1.43 | 1.14 | 1.60 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 1.50 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Belshina| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.11 | 1.44 | 1.00 | 1.83 | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.50 | 0.50 | - | - | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (7) | 1.00 | 1.71 | 1.00 | 1.83 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 22% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
| Belshina goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.6% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 14% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.1% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Neman
Belshina
Neman| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (9) | 12.0 | 7.0 | 17.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 12.0 | 7.0 | 17.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 2.5 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 0% | 100% | 11% | 0% | 25% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 50% | 100% | 0% | 89% | 100% | 75% | - | - | - |
Belshina| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (9) | 10.3 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 10.3 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 6.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 67% | 100% | 0% | 22% | 17% | 33% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 33% | 0% | 100% | 78% | 83% | 67% | - | - | - |
Neman| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.86 | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Belshina| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.44 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 0.50 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.29 | 0.71 | 0.33 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 44% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Neman| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.57 | 0.71 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 0.50 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 44% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Belshina| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.78 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 44% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 85.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 76.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 11.5 corners | 74.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 72.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Neman| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/22 | A | 1-1 | |
| 15/05/22 | H | 2-0 | |
| 08/05/22 | A | 3-2 | |
| 02/05/22 | H | 1-4 | |
| 22/04/22 | H | 1-1 | |
| 16/04/22 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/04/22 | H | 2-1 | |
| 02/04/22 | A | 0-0 | |
| 19/03/22 | H | 2-0 |
Belshina| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/22 | H | 2-1 | |
| 14/05/22 | A | 1-1 | |
| 07/05/22 | H | 0-2 | |
| 30/04/22 | A | 1-3 | |
| 22/04/22 | H | 2-2 | |
| 16/04/22 | A | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/22 | H | 2-3 | |
| 02/04/22 | H | 0-3 | |
| 20/03/22 | H | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Shakhter Soligorsk | 30 | 65 | 67% | 2.2 | 55 | 17 | +38 | 2.4 | 63% | 40% | 20% | 11.4 | 75% | 5.0 | 75% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 2 | FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk | 30 | 60 | 60% | 2.0 | 50 | 27 | +23 | 2.6 | 73% | 50% | 30% | 7.8 | 0% | 2.7 | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | - |
| 3 | Bate Borisov | 30 | 59 | 53% | 2.0 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 2.4 | 73% | 53% | 23% | 10.2 | 62% | 5.0 | 83% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | - |
| 4 | Dinamo Minsk | 30 | 59 | 53% | 2.0 | 50 | 25 | +25 | 2.5 | 63% | 50% | 37% | 9.5 | 50% | 5.4 | 86% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | - |
| 5 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 30 | 54 | 53% | 1.8 | 51 | 33 | +18 | 2.8 | 80% | 53% | 30% | 10.3 | 71% | 4.5 | 67% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | FC Minsk | 30 | 44 | 40% | 1.5 | 47 | 43 | +4 | 3.0 | 77% | 47% | 40% | 10.7 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 7 | Torpedo Zhodino | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 35 | 32 | +3 | 2.2 | 57% | 37% | 27% | 8.5 | 25% | 5.4 | 86% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 8 | Neman | 30 | 41 | 30% | 1.4 | 39 | 33 | +6 | 2.4 | 77% | 40% | 27% | 9.2 | 50% | 6.4 | 86% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | - |
| 9 | FC Gomel | 30 | 41 | 37% | 1.4 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 2.3 | 67% | 47% | 20% | 9.0 | 62% | 3.8 | 60% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | - |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 30 | 37 | 33% | 1.2 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 2.9 | 83% | 50% | 40% | 13.1 | 67% | 4.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | - |
| 11 | FC Slutsk | 30 | 32 | 23% | 1.1 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 2.2 | 63% | 37% | 20% | 10.0 | 67% | 4.4 | 50% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.4 | - |
| 12 | Belshina | 30 | 30 | 20% | 1.0 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 2.9 | 73% | 60% | 47% | 10.4 | 50% | 5.7 | 71% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | - |
| 13 | Dinamo Brest | 30 | 27 | 17% | 0.9 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 2.4 | 70% | 43% | 30% | 10.1 | 57% | 4.7 | 86% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 14 | Arsenal (Belarus) | 32 | 26 | 19% | 0.8 | 22 | 47 | -25 | 2.2 | 66% | 38% | 16% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | FC Vitebsk | 30 | 22 | 13% | 0.7 | 28 | 49 | -21 | 2.6 | 77% | 47% | 23% | 9.0 | 40% | 4.2 | 62% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.6 | - |
| 16 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 30 | 12 | 10% | 0.4 | 21 | 73 | -52 | 3.1 | 80% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.4 | - |
| 17 | ML Vitebsk | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | - |