This match between Neman and FC Minsk in the Belarus Premier League is finely balanced, with Neman coming off a defeat against FC Vitebsk, while FC Minsk is riding a 4-game winning streak. Neman's home win percentage is 36%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 34%. The model's selection is a home win.
The expected total goals is 2.4, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.4%. Neman has a strong home form, scoring an average of 1.75 goals and conceding 0.75 goals against similar opponents. FC Minsk's away form is also impressive, scoring 1.77 goals and conceding 1.15 goals against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Under 21.5 fouls, Under 9.5 corners, Under 3.5, and Over 1.5, with probabilities of 100%, 100%, 78%, and 70.4% respectively.
Neman's win extends their run, coming off the back of a victory over FC Minsk. The final score was 2-1, a result that mirrored the actual outcome. The model correctly picked a home win, the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 36%. The home team's recent form note suggests they are coming off a win, while FC Minsk's recent form note indicates they are coming off a defeat.
The model's selection, a home win, was correct. The suggested picks largely came in, with the model's selection of Under 3.5 hitting with an 80.4% probability.
Neman| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.43 | 0.64 | 1.00 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.27 | 0.64 | 0.75 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
FC Minsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 1.50 | 1.62 | 1.62 | 1.65 | 1.41 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 1.12 | 2.75 | 1.25 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.82 | 1.05 | 1.78 | 1.00 | 1.85 | 1.08 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| FC Minsk goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 12% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 11% | 15% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Neman
FC Minsk
Neman| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.3 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 18.5 | 16.0 | 21.0 |
| vs Stronger (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (35) | 9.6 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 22.3 | 25.0 | 21.0 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 2.0 | 2.0 | - | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | - |
| % over line | 50% | 33% | 67% | 28% | 33% | 23% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| % under line | 50% | 67% | 33% | 72% | 67% | 77% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
FC Minsk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.0 | - | 7.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 17.8 | - | 17.8 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 2.0 | - | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 7.0 | - | 7.0 |
| vs Similar (38) | 8.7 | - | 8.7 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 21.3 | - | 21.3 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 25% | - | 25% | 28% | 32% | 25% | 25% | - | 25% |
| % under line | 75% | - | 75% | 72% | 68% | 75% | 75% | - | 75% |
Neman| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.30 | 0.67 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.17 | 0.61 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.67 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
FC Minsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.62 | 1.12 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.86 | 0.55 | 0.89 | 0.44 | 0.85 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Neman| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.53 | 1.14 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.83 | 0.57 | 1.09 | 0.45 | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
FC Minsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.80 | 0.77 | 0.85 | 0.88 | 0.76 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.50 | 1.62 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.95 | 0.50 | 0.89 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 0.46 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 92.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 cards | 83.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 81.7% | 1.17 | 1.17 | - | - | - | - | +4.8% | - |
| Under 3.5 | 80.4% | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.21 | - | - | +5.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 76.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 10.5 corners | 72.3% | 1.36 | 1.36 | - | - | - | - | +5.4% | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 71.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/25 | A | 1-4 | |
| 22/06/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 01/12/24 | H | 4-0 | |
| 07/07/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 02/09/23 | H | 3-0 | |
| 23/04/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 18/09/22 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/05/22 | A | 3-2 |
Neman| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 11/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/07/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 22/11/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 08/11/25 | A | 1-4 | |
| 02/11/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 29/10/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 25/10/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/10/25 | H | 1-0 |
FC Minsk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 10/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 30/11/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 23/11/25 | A | 2-3 | |
| 08/11/25 | H | 1-4 | |
| 02/11/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 24/10/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 19/10/25 | A | 4-1 | |
| 03/10/25 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Vitebsk | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 1.4 | 29% | 14% | 0% | 9.8 | 50% | 2.8 | 0% | 20.2 | 25% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 11.6 | 80% | 3.2 | 20% | 26.2 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 47% |
| 3 | Dinamo Brest | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 50% | 11.0 | 100% | 3.4 | 40% | 27.8 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 4 | Neman | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 1.7 | 50% | 17% | 0% | 9.4 | 60% | 3.0 | 20% | 27.7 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 5 | FC Minsk | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 11.2 | 60% | 1.8 | 0% | 19.4 | 20% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 6 | Baranovichi | 7 | 9 | 29% | 1.3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 2.7 | 71% | 29% | 29% | 11.8 | 80% | 2.8 | 25% | 28.2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 1.8 | 33% | 17% | 17% | 11.8 | 75% | 3.2 | 50% | 28.7 | 100% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 55% |
| 8 | ML Vitebsk | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 13.2 | 100% | 3.8 | 75% | 27.8 | 75% | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 63% |
| 9 | Bate Borisov | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 2.0 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 11.8 | 100% | 3.7 | 33% | 25.3 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 10.2 | 50% | 4.2 | 75% | 26.5 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 11 | Dinamo Minsk | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 12.2 | 100% | 3.0 | 33% | 27.8 | 75% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 60% |
| 12 | Belshina | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.2 | 83% | 17% | 17% | 11.4 | 80% | 2.6 | 40% | 21.8 | 60% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 13 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 7 | 4 | 0% | 0.6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2.1 | 57% | 43% | 14% | 10.5 | 83% | 2.7 | 17% | 22.5 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 14 | Torpedo Zhodino | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.3 | 50% | 33% | 33% | 10.2 | 75% | 3.2 | 75% | 30.5 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 54% |
| 15 | Naftan | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4.2 | 100% | 67% | 50% | 10.2 | 60% | 1.8 | 0% | 21.4 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 43% |
| 16 | Arsenal (Belarus) | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 3.1 | 86% | 71% | 29% | 8.1 | 14% | 1.6 | 14% | 20.2 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 48% |