Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, as the model projects a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected total of 2.0 goals. The most likely result is a 0-1 away win, carrying a 15.5% probability, and the model’s pick is an away victory. Home win chances sit at 22%, a draw at 33%, and an away win at 45%. Neman, in their recent form, have won three of their last five games and are coming off a 1-0 win over Slavia Mozyr, yet they have conceded 0.4 goals per match when hosting. ML Vitebsk, playing away against a weaker opponent, average 2.33 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, giving them a clear offensive edge. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 90.4%, Under 3.5 at 86.2%, Under 25.5 fouls at 84.3%, Under 4.5 cards at 79.5%, Under 23.5 fouls at 72.3%, and Under 11.5 corners at 70.1%. These picks reflect the expected calm, low-action nature of the match.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win, was denied as Neman secured a 3-1 triumph, extending their three-game winning streak. The model had picked an away victory with a 45% probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The model’s other selection, Under 3.5, had an 86.2% chance yet missed as the match saw four goals. The most likely scoreline of 0-1 (15.5%) and the 2-goal total (28%) were both off the mark, with the final tally exceeding expectations. Neman’s home form, highlighted by a recent 1-0 win over Slavia Mozyr, proved decisive, while ML Vitebsk’s away form, built on a 3-1 victory over Dinamo Brest, could not hold up.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Neman win✓ Hit
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk win✗ Miss
45.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Neman
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.93
1.50
0.64
1.56
1.19
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.43
0.95
1.11
0.67
1.67
1.17
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
0.88
2.20
0.60
1.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ML Vitebsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.50
1.60
0.60
2.33
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
1.97
0.52
1.57
0.64
2.33
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Neman) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
59.9%
Under 1.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
31.6%
Under 2.5
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
13.8%
Under 3.5
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
38.7%
No
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
15.5%
0-0
15.2%
1-1
14.1%
0-2
10.2%
1-0
9.3%
1-2
7.8%
2-1
4.9%
0-3
4.1%
Neman goals ↓
ML Vitebsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
16%
10%
4.1%
1.2%
1
9.3%
14%
7.8%
3.1%
0.9%
2
4.0%
4.9%
3.0%
1.2%
0.4%
3
1.0%
1.2%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neman goals (down), columns = ML Vitebsk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ML Vitebsk
2.27
Dinamo Minsk
2.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.90
FC Minsk
1.70
Dinamo Brest
1.70
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.63
Torpedo Zhodino
1.63
Neman
1.50
Belshina
1.50
FC Gomel
1.43
Bate Borisov
1.33
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.03
Smorgon
0.97
Naftan
0.93
FC Slutsk
0.77
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.37
Neman is 0.77 points worse than ML Vitebsk in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
1.77
Slavia Mozyr
1.77
Dinamo Minsk
1.68
FC Minsk
1.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.40
Neman
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Vitebsk
1.23
FC Gomel
1.17
Naftan
1.17
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.90
Smorgon
0.75
FC Slutsk
0.68
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.63
Belshina
0.50
Neman is 0.40 goals worse than ML Vitebsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Belshina
0.50
ML Vitebsk
0.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.87
Dinamo Minsk
0.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.00
Neman
1.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
FC Gomel
1.13
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.17
Smorgon
1.38
Bate Borisov
1.43
FC Vitebsk
1.53
FC Minsk
1.57
FC Slutsk
1.65
Naftan
1.83
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.10
Neman is 0.43 goals worse than ML Vitebsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Neman
63%
Dinamo Minsk
56%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
55%
Slavia Mozyr
50%
Bate Borisov
50%
Smorgon
45%
Arsenal (Belarus)
44%
FC Minsk
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Neman
For 1.0 · Against 6.3 · Total 7.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 16.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ML Vitebsk
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Neman
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.3
7.5
7.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
16.0
16.0
16.0
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
10.0
13.0
7.0
2.0
2.3
1.7
20.5
25.0
16.0
vs Weaker (14)
2.0
2.0
-
2.4
1.8
3.2
7.0
7.0
-
% over line
33%
50%
0%
24%
25%
23%
33%
50%
0%
% under line
67%
50%
100%
76%
75%
77%
67%
50%
100%
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ML Vitebsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (49)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Neman) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
15.0
Naftan
12.0
FC Slutsk
10.9
Belshina
10.9
Bate Borisov
10.7
Dinamo Minsk
10.6
FC Gomel
10.5
Dinamo Brest
10.4
Slavia Mozyr
10.2
Neman
9.7
Torpedo Zhodino
9.5
FC Vitebsk
9.2
FC Minsk
8.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
8.8
Smorgon
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.9
Smorgon
3.9
Slavia Mozyr
3.7
Bate Borisov
3.7
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.5
FC Vitebsk
3.5
FC Gomel
3.3
Dinamo Brest
3.2
Naftan
3.2
Dinamo Minsk
3.1
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
3.0
FC Minsk
3.0
FC Slutsk
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.8
Neman
2.8
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Slavia Mozyr
29.0
Arsenal (Belarus)
29.0
Bate Borisov
29.0
Dinamo Minsk
25.0
Smorgon
24.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
24.0
Neman
16.0
FC Minsk
7.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.7%
Under 9.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
37.9%
Under 3.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
43.4%
Under 21.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Neman
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.57
0.21
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.48
0.33
0.22
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.38
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ML Vitebsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.27
0.67
0.33
0.80
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
0.69
0.28
0.57
0.36
0.80
0.20
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Neman) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neman over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Neman
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
0.93
0.43
1.00
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.00
0.48
0.78
0.44
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.50
1.20
0.40
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ML Vitebsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.23
0.93
0.27
1.53
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (29)
1.28
0.24
1.00
0.29
1.53
0.20
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Neman) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neman over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
Neman's squad is €10m less valuable than ML Vitebsk's (€4m vs €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
Neman's attack is €5m less valuable than ML Vitebsk's (€1m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
Neman and ML Vitebsk have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
Neman's defence is €4m less valuable than ML Vitebsk's (€1m vs €5m).
Belarus: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Minsk
Slavia Mozyr
Dinamo Brest
FC Minsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Torpedo Zhodino
FC Gomel
Bate Borisov
Arsenal (Belarus)
FC Vitebsk
Smorgon
Naftan
FC Slutsk
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Belshina