The contest between Nesebar and Beroe is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home chances sit at 32 %, a draw at 28 %, and the visitors at 39 %. The expected total goals hover around 2.7, with the most probable total being two goals, a 26 % chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6 % probability, reflecting the evenly matched nature of the sides.
Nesebar, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.18 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. Beroe, on the road, averages only 0.46 scored and 0.92 conceded versus similar opposition. Recent form shows Nesebar on a three-game winning run, having thumped Pirin Blagoevgrad 7-0, while Beroe is coming off a 0-2 loss to Fratria and has a win-loss-win-loss-win streak.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4 %), Under 6.5 (98.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.1 %), Under 5.5 (94.7 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.6 %), Under 4.5 (87.0 %), Home under 2.5 goals (86.7 %), and Away +2 handicap (85.5 %). These picks highlight the expectation of a low-scoring affair with the visitors edging the outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nesebar win
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Beroe win
39.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nesebar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.43
1.40
1.33
0.67
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.43
1.75
0.75
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (23)
0.91
1.43
1.27
1.55
0.58
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Beroe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beroe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.13
0.81
1.06
0.71
1.21
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.40
0.00
2.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.88
1.00
0.69
0.67
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.1%
Under 2.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.8%
Under 3.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.7%
No
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.0%
0-1
7.4%
0-0
7.0%
1-0
6.7%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
5.9%
Nesebar goals ↓
Beroe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
7.4%
6.4%
3.2%
1.2%
1
6.7%
13%
8.7%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.4%
8.0%
5.9%
2.9%
1.1%
3
2.4%
3.6%
2.7%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.8%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nesebar goals (down), columns = Beroe goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Nesebar is 0.14 points worse than Beroe in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Nesebar is 0.57 goals better than Beroe in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Nesebar is 0.57 goals worse than Beroe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nesebar or Draw
60.9%
Avg Implied -
34%
27%
39%
covers Nesebar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nesebar or Beroe
72.7%
Avg Implied -
34%
27%
39%
covers Nesebar + Beroe
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Beroe
66.4%
Avg Implied -
34%
27%
39%
covers Draw + Beroe
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nesebar over/under 0.5
Over
74.4%
Under
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 0.5
Over
77.3%
Under
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 1.5
Over
43.7%
Under
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 2.5
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nesebar, so a minus line means Nesebar give that many goals of a start and Beroe receive them. At -1, Nesebar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nesebar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nesebar)
Nesebar -2
5.6%
Draw -2
10.1%
Beroe +2
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nesebar)
Nesebar -1
15.7%
Draw -1
17.9%
Beroe +1
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nesebar)
Nesebar +1
60.9%
Draw +1
19.6%
Beroe -1
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nesebar)
Nesebar +2
80.6%
Draw +2
11.9%
Beroe -2
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nesebar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.60
0.53
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.43
1.00
0.25
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.65
0.45
0.64
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Beroe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beroe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.40
0.31
0.44
0.36
0.36
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.36
0.32
0.38
0.31
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nesebar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nesebar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.78
0.82
0.91
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Beroe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beroe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.50
0.62
0.36
0.86
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.60
0.00
1.67
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.56
0.62
0.38
0.33
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nesebar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beroe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Beroe · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alberto Salido67%
Alberto Salido27%
Marco Borgnino20%
Facundo Alarcon13%
Yesid Valbuena8%
Ismael Ferrer5%
Juan Pablo Salomoni4%
Santiago Brunelli0%
Jaume Valens Cardell0%
Stefan Gavrilov0%
Carlos Algarra López0%
Alex Masogo0%
Juanca Pineda0%
Francisco Varela0%
Caio Lopes0%
Emir Kuhinja0%
Arthur Motta0%
Leandro Godoy0%
Valentino Quintero0%
Gianluca Colla0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Nene0%
João Sérgio Milheirão0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Viktorio Valkov0%
Stilyan Rusenov0%
Stanislav Yovkov0%
Wesley Rocha0%
Miroslav Georgiev0%
Nene0%
Tijan Sonha0%
David Valverde Juan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Valverde Juan45%
Francisco Varela40%
Facundo Constantini37%
Leandro Godoy33%
Santiago Brunelli30%
Facundo Alarcon27%
Carlos Algarra López25%
Alex Masogo25%
Emir Kuhinja22%
Augusto Dabo22%
Marco Borgnino20%
Gianluca Colla20%
João Sérgio Milheirão20%
Ismael Ferrer18%
Wesley Rocha17%
Tijan Sonha15%
Miroslav Georgiev14%
Juanca Pineda14%
Jaume Valens Cardell12%
Caio Lopes9%
Alberto Salido9%
Yesid Valbuena8%
Nene7%
Juan Pablo Salomoni4%
Stefan Gavrilov0%
Alberto Salido0%
Arthur Motta0%
Valentino Quintero0%
Nene0%
Viktorio Valkov0%
Stilyan Rusenov0%
Stanislav Yovkov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Carlos Algarra López25%
Gianluca Colla20%
Viktorio Valkov17%
Yesid Valbuena8%
Nene7%
João Sérgio Milheirão5%
Juanca Pineda5%
Ismael Ferrer5%
Marco Borgnino0%
Santiago Brunelli0%
Jaume Valens Cardell0%
Stefan Gavrilov0%
Alberto Salido0%
Alex Masogo0%
Francisco Varela0%
Caio Lopes0%
Emir Kuhinja0%
Arthur Motta0%
Leandro Godoy0%
Valentino Quintero0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Juan Pablo Salomoni0%
Nene0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Stilyan Rusenov0%
Stanislav Yovkov0%
Wesley Rocha0%
Miroslav Georgiev0%
Facundo Alarcon0%
Alberto Salido0%
Tijan Sonha0%
David Valverde Juan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Leandro Godoy100%
Alberto Salido36%
Alberto Salido33%
Juanca Pineda9%
Ismael Ferrer9%
Yesid Valbuena8%
Nene7%
Facundo Alarcon7%
Marco Borgnino0%
Santiago Brunelli0%
Jaume Valens Cardell0%
Stefan Gavrilov0%
Carlos Algarra López0%
Alex Masogo0%
Francisco Varela0%
Caio Lopes0%
Emir Kuhinja0%
Arthur Motta0%
Valentino Quintero0%
Gianluca Colla0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Juan Pablo Salomoni0%
Nene0%
João Sérgio Milheirão0%
Augusto Dabo0%
Viktorio Valkov0%
Stilyan Rusenov0%
Stanislav Yovkov0%
Wesley Rocha0%
Miroslav Georgiev0%
Tijan Sonha0%
David Valverde Juan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Fratria
Yantra 2019
Montana
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Marek
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Rilski Sportist
Hebar 1918
Ludogorets II
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad