The model favours an away win, with CSKA Sofia II expected to edge Nesebar 42% to 31% for a home win and 26% for a draw. The average goal tally is three, yet the most probable total is two goals, a 23% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.1% probability, a tidy reflection of both sides’ balanced scoring and conceding figures. Nesebar, at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, while CSKA Sofia II, on the road versus a weaker side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.7%), Under 6.5 (96.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.5%), Under 5.5 (91.2%), Away +2 handicap (85.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (83.5%) and Over 1.5 (81.8%). The match is poised for a modest, evenly contested encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nesebar win
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II win
43.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nesebar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.43
1.40
1.33
0.67
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.43
1.75
0.75
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (23)
0.91
1.43
1.27
1.55
0.58
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.87
2.20
0.73
1.73
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.23
0.77
0.50
0.50
1.86
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
2.53
0.94
3.33
0.89
1.62
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.6%
Under 2.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.2%
Under 3.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.8%
No
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.6%
0-1
6.8%
0-2
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
5.9%
1-0
5.5%
Nesebar goals ↓
CSKA Sofia II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
6.8%
6.6%
3.7%
1.5%
1
5.5%
12%
9.1%
5.0%
2.1%
2
4.5%
7.6%
6.3%
3.5%
1.4%
3
2.1%
3.5%
2.9%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.7%
1.2%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nesebar goals (down), columns = CSKA Sofia II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Beroe
1.57
Montana
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Nesebar is 0.57 points worse than CSKA Sofia II in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Nesebar is 0.29 goals worse than CSKA Sofia II in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Nesebar is 0.43 goals worse than CSKA Sofia II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nesebar or Draw
56.9%
Avg Implied -
31%
26%
43%
covers Nesebar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nesebar or CSKA Sofia II
74.0%
Avg Implied -
31%
26%
43%
covers Nesebar + CSKA Sofia II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or CSKA Sofia II
69.1%
Avg Implied -
31%
26%
43%
covers Draw + CSKA Sofia II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nesebar over/under 0.5
Over
74.9%
Under
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5
Over
40.2%
Under
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 0.5
Over
81.0%
Under
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 1.5
Over
49.5%
Under
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 2.5
Over
23.3%
Under
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 3.5
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nesebar, so a minus line means Nesebar give that many goals of a start and CSKA Sofia II receive them. At -1, Nesebar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nesebar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nesebar)
Nesebar -2
5.1%
Draw -2
9.2%
CSKA Sofia II +2
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nesebar)
Nesebar -1
14.3%
Draw -1
16.6%
CSKA Sofia II +1
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nesebar)
Nesebar +1
56.9%
Draw +1
20.2%
CSKA Sofia II -1
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nesebar)
Nesebar +2
77.1%
Draw +2
13.3%
CSKA Sofia II -2
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nesebar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.60
0.53
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.43
1.00
0.25
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.65
0.45
0.64
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.67
0.47
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.00
0.33
1.00
0.57
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.59
1.11
0.56
0.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nesebar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nesebar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.78
0.82
0.91
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.33
1.53
0.27
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.31
0.50
0.17
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
1.53
0.35
2.22
0.33
0.75
0.38
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nesebar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →