PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Nesebar vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo Result & Analysis

Date: 25/07/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 1-5
Nesebar
Nesebar
Vs
41%
29%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Bulgaria: Second League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Nesebar and Etar Veliko Tarnovo is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14 % chance. Nesebar, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Etar, on the road, averages 0.77 goals scored and 1.46 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 41 % for a home win, 29 % for a draw, and 30 % for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 goals with a 75.7 % probability and Over 1.5 goals with a 72.6 % probability. Each pick is presented with its exact percentage, and no other outcomes are assigned a winning chance.

Results analysis

The upset came early, with Etar Veliko Tarnovo snatching a 1-5 away win that shattered the model’s pre-match favourite, a home win at 41 %. The model’s call was wrong. The final score of 1-5 confirmed the away triumph. The model had also suggested Under 3.5 at 75.7 % and Over 1.5 at 72.6 %; the former missed while the latter hit. Nesebar, on a three-game winning streak, had been expected to hold its own, but Etar, after a defeat, turned the tables, scoring five goals. The match finished with the away side’s victory, a stark contrast to the predicted home success.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nesebar win✗ Miss
41.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo win✓ Hit
29.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

NesebarNesebar

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L13L00D20W01L00D20W02L01L11DA·LUD02/04H·MON06/04A·YAN13/04H·FK 17/04A·BEL26/04H·STR03/05A·BOT08/05H·ETA11/05A·MAR17/05H·LOK24/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.370.861.360.561.38
vs Stronger (11)1.001.821.331.830.601.80
vs Similar (19)0.531.110.501.000.551.18
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Etar Veliko Tarnovo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Etar Veliko TarnovoEtar Veliko Tarnovo

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L31W22D00D42W32W11D01L10W01LA·SPA21/03H·CSK29/03A·VIH04/04H·DUN13/04A·BEL17/04H·PIR25/04A·CHE03/05H·HEB10/05H·LUD15/05A·MAR23/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.401.731.130.871.67
vs Stronger (4)2.252.503.002.001.503.00
vs Similar (26)1.151.231.541.000.771.46
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.6%
Under 1.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.7%
Under 2.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.3%
Under 3.5
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
10.0%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.0%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
5.2%
Nesebar goals ↓
Etar Veliko Tarnovo goals →
01234
09.5%8.0%5.2%2.0%0.6%
110.0%14%7.2%2.7%0.8%
27.7%8.7%4.9%1.9%0.5%
33.5%4.0%2.3%0.8%0.2%
41.2%1.4%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nesebar goals (down), columns = Etar Veliko Tarnovo goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Yantra 2019
2.00
Fratria
1.97
Vihren
1.81
CSKA Sofia II
1.72
Beroe
1.71
Dobrudzha
1.61
Montana
1.55
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.44
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.38
Nesebar
1.36
Rilski Sportist
1.36
Ludogorets II
1.28
Marek
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.25
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.09
Sportist Svoge
1.06
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
Nesebar is 0.01 points worse than Etar Veliko Tarnovo in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.38).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Fratria
1.91
Vihren
1.84
CSKA Sofia II
1.78
Beroe
1.57
Dobrudzha
1.49
Montana
1.43
Yantra 2019
1.41
Ludogorets II
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.28
Nesebar
1.26
Rilski Sportist
1.26
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.22
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.16
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
Sportist Svoge
0.88
Marek
0.84
Nesebar is 0.04 goals better than Etar Veliko Tarnovo in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.22).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Yantra 2019
0.75
Fratria
0.91
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Beroe
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.06
Vihren
1.06
Marek
1.09
Montana
1.11
Nesebar
1.26
Rilski Sportist
1.26
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.28
Ludogorets II
1.34
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.34
Spartak Pleven
1.41
Sportist Svoge
1.50
Hebar 1918
1.59
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.62
Nesebar is 0.09 goals better than Etar Veliko Tarnovo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.34).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

NesebarNesebar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L00D00D00D00D20W01L00D01LA·LUD02/04H·MON06/04A·YAN13/04H·FK 17/04A·BEL26/04H·STR03/05A·BOT08/05H·ETA11/05A·MAR17/05H·LOK24/05
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.230.570.210.570.250.56
vs Stronger (11)0.270.640.330.830.200.40
vs Similar (19)0.210.530.120.380.270.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Etar Veliko Tarnovo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Etar Veliko TarnovoEtar Veliko Tarnovo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L21W02L00D20W21W01L00D00D01LA·SPA21/03H·CSK29/03A·VIH04/04H·DUN13/04A·BEL17/04H·PIR25/04A·CHE03/05H·HEB10/05H·LUD15/05A·MAR23/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.730.670.530.270.93
vs Stronger (4)1.251.502.001.000.502.00
vs Similar (26)0.350.620.460.460.230.77
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nesebar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

NesebarNesebar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L00D20W01L00D00D01L01L10WA·LUD02/04H·MON06/04A·YAN13/04H·FK 17/04A·BEL26/04H·STR03/05A·BOT08/05H·ETA11/05A·MAR17/05H·LOK24/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.800.640.790.310.81
vs Stronger (11)0.731.181.001.000.401.40
vs Similar (19)0.320.580.380.620.270.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Etar Veliko Tarnovo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Etar Veliko TarnovoEtar Veliko Tarnovo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W20W00D22D11D10W01L10W00DA·SPA21/03H·CSK29/03A·VIH04/04H·DUN13/04A·BEL17/04H·PIR25/04A·CHE03/05H·HEB10/05H·LUD15/05A·MAR23/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.671.070.600.600.73
vs Stronger (4)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (26)0.810.621.080.540.540.69
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nesebar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.7%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.572.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BER (37)
€11m
CSI (46)
€9m
LI (41)
€9m
DOB (38)
€8m
MON (42)
€6m
FRA (39)
€4m
H1 (46)
€4m
Y2 (30)
€4m
VIH (39)
€3m
PB (39)
€3m
EVT (38)
€3m
C1B (33)
€3m
MAR (39)
€2m
LGO (37)
€2m
SP (34)
€2m
SS (41)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BER (0)
€0m
C1B (0)
€0m
CSI (0)
€0m
DOB (0)
€0m
EVT (0)
€0m
FRA (0)
€0m
H1 (0)
€0m
LGO (0)
€0m
LI (0)
€0m
MAR (0)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
PB (0)
€0m
SP (0)
€0m
SS (0)
€0m
VIH (0)
€0m
Y2 (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BER (0)
€0m
C1B (0)
€0m
CSI (0)
€0m
DOB (0)
€0m
EVT (0)
€0m
FRA (0)
€0m
H1 (0)
€0m
LGO (0)
€0m
LI (0)
€0m
MAR (0)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
PB (0)
€0m
SP (0)
€0m
SS (0)
€0m
VIH (0)
€0m
Y2 (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BER (0)
€0m
C1B (0)
€0m
CSI (0)
€0m
DOB (0)
€0m
EVT (0)
€0m
FRA (0)
€0m
H1 (0)
€0m
LGO (0)
€0m
LI (0)
€0m
MAR (0)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
PB (0)
€0m
SP (0)
€0m
SS (0)
€0m
VIH (0)
€0m
Y2 (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
NES wins
0
Draws
2
EVT wins

Head-to-head

Nesebar vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo · H/A from NES
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/25HNES Vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo0-2
16/11/24AEtar Veliko Tarnovo Vs NES3-0

NesebarNesebar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/05/25HNES Vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa1-1
17/05/25AMarek Vs NES1-0
11/05/25HNES Vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo0-2
08/05/25ABotev Plovdiv II Vs NES0-2
03/05/25HNES Vs Strumska Slava0-0
26/04/25ABelasitsa Vs NES1-0
17/04/25HNES Vs FK Minyor Pernik2-0
13/04/25AYantra 2019 Vs NES0-0
06/04/25HNES Vs Montana1-3
02/04/25ALudogorets II Vs NES2-0

Etar Veliko TarnovoEtar Veliko Tarnovo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/26AMarek Vs EVT1-0
15/05/26HEVT Vs Ludogorets II1-0
10/05/26HEVT Vs Hebar 19180-1
03/05/26AChernomorets 1919 Burgas Vs EVT1-1
25/04/26HEVT Vs Pirin Blagoevgrad3-2
17/04/26ABelasitsa Vs EVT2-4
13/04/26HEVT Vs Dunav Ruse0-0
04/04/26AVihren Vs EVT2-2
29/03/26HEVT Vs CSKA Sofia II3-1
21/03/26ASpartak Pleven Vs EVT4-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Nesebar
Nesebar
Bulgaria: Second League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLD0.74
HomeLWDLD0.95
AwayLDLWL0.55
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %13%21%5%
AVG goals2.332.582.10
Over 1.5 %69%84%55%
Over 2.5 %38%53%25%
Over 3.5 %21%21%20%
Scored0.720.950.50
Conceded1.621.631.60
BTTS41%58%25%
Clean Sheet23%16%30%
Corners---
Cards---
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Bulgaria: Second League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWL1.36
HomeWDWLW1.64
AwayLDWDL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%40%28%
AVG goals2.282.282.28
Over 1.5 %66%60%72%
Over 2.5 %34%40%28%
Over 3.5 %22%24%20%
Scored1.161.440.88
Conceded1.120.841.40
BTTS36%40%32%
Clean Sheet36%44%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Etar Veliko TarnovoEtar Veliko Tarnovo510
60%
2.0
105+5
3.0
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0002.01.0
-
2CSKA Sofia IICSKA Sofia II410
75%
2.5
94+5
3.2
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
0002.21.0
-
3FratriaFratria510
60%
2.0
73+4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.40.6
-
4NesebarNesebar59
60%
1.8
128+4
4.0
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.6
-
5VihrenVihren59
40%
1.8
96+3
3.0
100%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.81.2
-
6Yantra 2019Yantra 201959
60%
1.8
66+0
2.4
60%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.21.2
-
7Spartak PlevenSpartak Pleven47
50%
1.8
64+2
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.51.0
-
8MontanaMontana57
40%
1.4
98+1
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
0001.81.6
-
9Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaLokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa57
40%
1.4
56-1
2.2
80%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.01.2
-
10MarekMarek56
40%
1.2
66+0
2.4
40%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.21.2
-
11BeroeBeroe46
50%
1.5
44+0
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
0001.01.0
-
12Hebar 1918Hebar 191856
40%
1.2
1011-1
4.2
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0002.02.2
-
13Ludogorets IILudogorets II46
50%
1.5
35-2
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
0000.81.2
-
14Rilski SportistRilski Sportist55
20%
1.0
56-1
2.2
60%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
15Chernomorets 1919 BurgasChernomorets 1919 Burgas55
20%
1.0
34-1
1.4
40%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0000.60.8
-
16Sportist SvogeSportist Svoge55
20%
1.0
34-1
1.4
20%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0000.60.8
-
17DobrudzhaDobrudzha54
20%
0.8
78-1
3.0
60%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
0001.41.6
-
18Pirin BlagoevgradPirin Blagoevgrad50
0%
0.0
319-16
4.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0000.63.8
-
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →

← all matches