Nesebar are favoured to win, with a 48% chance of triumph, 29% for a draw and 23% for Rilski Sportist. The match is expected to see 2.4 goals on average, most likely a 2-goal total with a 27% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.7% chance. Nesebar, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.55 conceded, while Rilski Sportist, on the road, averages 0.5 scored and 0.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8%), Under 5.5 (96.4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.3%) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.3%). Both sides have recently drawn their last matches, with Nesebar 1-1 against Yantra 2019 and Rilski Sportist 0-0 against Dobrudzha.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nesebar win
47.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist win
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nesebar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.43
1.40
1.33
0.67
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.43
1.75
0.75
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (23)
0.91
1.43
1.27
1.55
0.58
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilski Sportist) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rilski Sportist
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.25
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
14% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.5%
Under 1.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.1%
Under 2.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.2%
Under 3.5
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
12.0%
0-0
10.3%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.3%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
4.7%
Nesebar goals ↓
Rilski Sportist goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.3%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
5.9%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.6%
9.1%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
4.7%
4.4%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.7%
1.6%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nesebar goals (down), columns = Rilski Sportist goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Nesebar is 0.14 points better than Rilski Sportist in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Nesebar is 0.86 goals better than Rilski Sportist in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Nesebar is 0.43 goals worse than Rilski Sportist in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nesebar or Draw
76.9%
Avg Implied -
48%
29%
23%
covers Nesebar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nesebar or Rilski Sportist
71.0%
Avg Implied -
48%
29%
23%
covers Nesebar + Rilski Sportist
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rilski Sportist
52.1%
Avg Implied -
48%
29%
23%
covers Draw + Rilski Sportist
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nesebar over/under 0.5
Over
76.8%
Under
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5
Over
42.9%
Under
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 3.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 0.5
Over
61.0%
Under
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 1.5
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 2.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nesebar, so a minus line means Nesebar give that many goals of a start and Rilski Sportist receive them. At -1, Nesebar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nesebar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nesebar)
Nesebar -2
9.6%
Draw -2
14.9%
Rilski Sportist +2
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nesebar)
Nesebar -1
24.5%
Draw -1
23.4%
Rilski Sportist +1
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nesebar)
Nesebar +1
76.9%
Draw +1
14.7%
Rilski Sportist -1
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nesebar)
Nesebar +2
91.6%
Draw +2
6.2%
Rilski Sportist -2
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nesebar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.60
0.53
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.43
1.00
0.25
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.65
0.45
0.64
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilski Sportist) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rilski Sportist
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.0%
Under 0.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.0%
Under 1.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.0%
Under 2.5
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nesebar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.7%
Under
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.6%
Under
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nesebar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.78
0.82
0.91
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilski Sportist) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rilski Sportist
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.75
0.75
0.33
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.20
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Nesebar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.8%
Under 0.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.2%
Under 1.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.5%
Under 2.5
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nesebar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.7%
Under
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nesebar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.6%
Under
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →