The model favours an away win, with a 48% chance for Kalamata to come out on top, 29% for a draw and 23% for a Nestos Chrisoupolis victory. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly open game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.7% probability. Nestos Chrisoupolis, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.21 goals scored and 0.64 conceded. Kalamata, on the road, has a stronger offensive record, scoring 1.8 on average, while conceding 0.9. Recent form shows Nestos Chrisoupolis unbeaten in five, whereas Kalamata has only one win from five after two defeats. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 99.9%, Under 7.5 fouls at 99.6%, Over 21.5 fouls at 99.5%, Under 6.5 fouls at 98.8%, Over 23.5 fouls at 98.6%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 96.7%, and Over 25.5 fouls at 96.5%.
Nestos Chrisoupolis| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.93 | 1.12 | 0.69 | 0.93 | 1.21 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.07 | 0.93 | 1.21 | 0.64 | 0.93 | 1.21 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
Kalamata| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.03 | 0.77 | 2.12 | 0.75 | 1.93 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.79 | 0.88 | 1.77 | 0.77 | 1.82 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 3.00 | 0.33 | 3.67 | 0.67 | 2.33 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
| Kalamata goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 10.0% | 12% | 9.4% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 14% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Nestos Chrisoupolis
Kalamata
Nestos Chrisoupolis| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (38) | 5.0 | - | 5.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 34.0 | - | 34.0 |
| vs Stronger (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (35) | 5.0 | - | 5.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 34.0 | - | 34.0 |
| vs Weaker (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | - | 0% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 100% | - | 100% |
| % under line | 100% | - | 100% | 97% | 100% | 95% | 0% | - | 0% |
Kalamata| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.3 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 37.5 | 38.0 | 37.0 |
| vs Stronger (3) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (36) | 8.3 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 37.5 | 38.0 | 37.0 |
| vs Weaker (11) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 33% | 50% | 0% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 67% | 50% | 100% | 94% | 92% | 96% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Nestos Chrisoupolis| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.27 | 0.44 | 0.12 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.46 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.07 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+46pp vs league) | |||||
Kalamata| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.20 | 1.06 | 0.12 | 1.07 | 0.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.88 | 0.21 | 0.77 | 0.08 | 1.00 | 0.36 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.83 | 0.17 | 2.33 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 80% (+49pp vs league) | |||||
Nestos Chrisoupolis| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.69 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.61 | 0.68 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.79 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Kalamata| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.57 | 1.06 | 0.62 | 0.86 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.92 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.69 | 0.82 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.17 | 0.17 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 99.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 7.5 | 99.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 99.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 98.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 98.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 98.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 96.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 25.5 fouls | 96.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 96.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 93.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 10.5 corners | 93.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 92.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 91.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 90.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 9.5 corners | 88.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 84.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 81.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 8.5 corners | 79.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 77.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 76.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Draw or Away | 76.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +1 handicap | 76.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 75.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 goals | 74.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 71.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 71.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Nestos Chrisoupolis| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 19/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 1-0 |
Kalamata| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 29/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 22/08/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 19/08/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 0-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Panserraikos | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 2 | Ellas Syros | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 3 | Panionios | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 4 | Anagennisi Karditsas | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 5 | Niki Volos | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 6 | Zakynthos | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 7 | PAOK II | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 8 | Nestos Chrisoupolis | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 9 | Marko | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 10 | Apollon Pontou | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 11 | Kallithea | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 12 | Asteras Tripolis II | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 13 | Olympiakos Piraeus II | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 14 | Larisa | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 15 | Pyrgos 1968 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 16 | Panthrakikos | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | PAOK | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 3.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 6.0 | 0% | 2.0 | 0% | 35.5 | 100% | 82 | 30 | 28 | 24 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 60% |
| 2 | Panetolikos | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 5.5 | 0% | 8.0 | 100% | 35.0 | 100% | 13 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 46% |
| 3 | Aris Thessalonikis | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 7.5 | 50% | 7.0 | 100% | 38.5 | 100% | 41 | 22 | 7 | 12 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 51% |
| 4 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 1.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 | 50% | 8.0 | 100% | 26.0 | 100% | 175 | 84 | 47 | 44 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 5 | AEK Athens FC | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 5.0 | 0% | 4.5 | 50% | 35.0 | 100% | 85 | 44 | 16 | 26 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 57% |
| 6 | Panathinaikos | 1 | 3 | 100% | 3.0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 | 100% | 7.0 | 100% | 37.0 | 100% | 109 | 46 | 26 | 38 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 53% |
| 7 | OFI | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 5.5 | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | 36.5 | 100% | 18 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 45% |
| 8 | Kifisia | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | 8.0 | 100% | 34.0 | 100% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 9 | Volos NFC | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 5.5 | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | 37.5 | 100% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 10 | Iraklis 1908 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 5.5 | 0% | 4.5 | 50% | 38.5 | 100% | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0.5 | 2.5 | - |
| 11 | Atromitos | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2.0 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 13.0 | 50% | 6.0 | 50% | 32.5 | 100% | 12 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 53% |
| 12 | Kalamata | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 9.0 | 50% | 7.5 | 100% | 37.5 | 100% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | - |
| 13 | Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 6.0 | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | 28.5 | 100% | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 45% |
| 14 | Levadiakos | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 7.0 | 50% | 7.0 | 100% | 35.5 | 100% | 16 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 56% |