Nestos Chrisoupolis look set to defend their home advantage as the model projects a tight, low-scoring encounter. The defensive numbers are telling: the home side averages 1.21 goals scored and 0.64 conceded against similar opposition, while Marko, on the road, nets 0.92 and concedes 0.77. The probability spread shows a 40% chance of a home win, 34% for a draw, and 26% for an away win, with the model’s pick being a home victory. The expected total goals hover at 1.9, with the most likely total being two goals at a 28% probability. The single most probable scoreline is a 0-0 stalemate, carrying a 16% chance.
The model’s selections reinforce the defensive theme: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Under 5.5 (98.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Under 4.5 (95.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.9%), and Home +2 handicap (91.3%). All picks are presented with their exact percentages, reflecting the model’s confidence in a cautious, low-scoring outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nestos Chrisoupolis win
40.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marko win
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nestos Chrisoupolis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.93
1.12
0.69
0.93
1.21
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.07
0.93
1.21
0.64
0.93
1.21
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Marko) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marko
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.00
1.40
1.00
0.87
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.33
2.00
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (25)
1.16
0.92
1.38
1.00
0.92
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Nestos Chrisoupolis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
58.5%
Under 1.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
30.1%
Under 2.5
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
12.9%
Under 3.5
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
38.7%
No
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.0%
1-0
14.8%
1-1
14.6%
0-1
10.7%
2-0
8.8%
2-1
7.3%
1-2
5.4%
0-2
5.0%
Nestos Chrisoupolis goals ↓
Marko goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
11%
5.0%
1.4%
0.3%
1
15%
15%
5.4%
1.5%
0.3%
2
8.8%
7.3%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
3
3.2%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nestos Chrisoupolis goals (down), columns = Marko goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Panionios
2.08
Niki Volos
2.00
Larisa
1.80
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.71
Marko
1.67
PAOK II
1.64
Kallithea
1.61
Ellas Syros
1.61
Asteras Tripolis II
1.54
Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.43
Pyrgos 1968
1.41
Zakynthos
1.41
Panthrakikos
1.41
Panserraikos
1.36
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.29
Apollon Pontou
1.18
Nestos Chrisoupolis is 0.24 points worse than Marko in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niki Volos
1.92
PAOK II
1.57
Larisa
1.48
Panionios
1.46
Ellas Syros
1.43
Asteras Tripolis II
1.21
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.17
Pyrgos 1968
1.16
Zakynthos
1.16
Panthrakikos
1.16
Kallithea
1.14
Marko
1.12
Panserraikos
1.12
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.08
Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.07
Apollon Pontou
0.97
Nestos Chrisoupolis is 0.05 goals worse than Marko in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Niki Volos
0.50
Panionios
0.54
Marko
0.71
Anagennisi Karditsas
0.75
Kallithea
0.79
Ellas Syros
0.86
Larisa
0.89
Nestos Chrisoupolis
0.93
PAOK II
1.11
Asteras Tripolis II
1.12
Pyrgos 1968
1.13
Zakynthos
1.13
Panthrakikos
1.13
Panserraikos
1.17
Apollon Pontou
1.35
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.58
Nestos Chrisoupolis is 0.22 goals worse than Marko in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nestos Chrisoupolis or Draw
74.2%
Avg Implied -
40%
34%
26%
covers Nestos Chrisoupolis + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis or Marko
66.1%
Avg Implied -
40%
34%
26%
covers Nestos Chrisoupolis + Marko
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Marko
59.6%
Avg Implied -
40%
34%
26%
covers Draw + Marko
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 0.5
Over
66.6%
Under
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 1.5
Over
30.0%
Under
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 2.5
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 0.5
Over
56.0%
Under
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 1.5
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 2.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nestos Chrisoupolis, so a minus line means Nestos Chrisoupolis give that many goals of a start and Marko receive them. At -1, Nestos Chrisoupolis must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nestos Chrisoupolis win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nestos Chrisoupolis)
Nestos Chrisoupolis -2
5.4%
Draw -2
11.8%
Marko +2
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nestos Chrisoupolis)
Nestos Chrisoupolis -1
17.2%
Draw -1
23.2%
Marko +1
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nestos Chrisoupolis)
Nestos Chrisoupolis +1
74.2%
Draw +1
17.1%
Marko -1
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nestos Chrisoupolis)
Nestos Chrisoupolis +2
91.3%
Draw +2
6.6%
Marko -2
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nestos Chrisoupolis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.27
0.44
0.12
0.43
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.25
0.50
0.07
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Marko) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marko
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.73
0.40
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.32
0.77
0.38
0.42
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Nestos Chrisoupolis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nestos Chrisoupolis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.69
0.56
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.68
0.71
0.57
0.50
0.79
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Marko) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marko
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.67
0.60
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.60
0.62
0.62
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Nestos Chrisoupolis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nestos Chrisoupolis over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAN (27)
€6m
NV (24)
€6m
PI (21)
€5m
KAL (27)
€5m
PAN (24)
€5m
LAR (23)
€5m
MAR (27)
€5m
AK (25)
€4m
OPI (22)
€4m
ATI (23)
€4m
NC (23)
€3m
ES (20)
€3m
AP (16)
€2m
Nestos Chrisoupolis's squad is €1m less valuable than Marko's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAN (13)
€3m
PAN (11)
€2m
PI (9)
€2m
MAR (11)
€2m
NV (7)
€2m
OPI (9)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
AK (7)
€1m
NC (9)
€1m
ES (9)
€1m
ATI (6)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
Nestos Chrisoupolis and Marko have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NV (6)
€1m
PI (4)
€1m
ATI (7)
€1m
PAN (3)
€1m
AK (6)
€1m
LAR (3)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
NC (5)
€1m
AP (4)
€1m
ES (3)
€1m
MAR (4)
€0m
OPI (3)
€0m
PAN (1)
€0m
Nestos Chrisoupolis and Marko have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAL (14)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
NV (11)
€3m
LAR (13)
€2m
MAR (12)
€2m
PI (8)
€2m
OPI (10)
€2m
PAN (10)
€2m
AK (12)
€2m
NC (9)
€1m
ATI (10)
€1m
ES (8)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
Nestos Chrisoupolis and Marko have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Greece: Super League 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Panserraikos
Ellas Syros
Panionios
Anagennisi Karditsas
Niki Volos
Zakynthos
PAOK II
Apollon Pontou
Kallithea
Asteras Tripolis II
Olympiakos Piraeus II
Larisa
Pyrgos 1968
Panthrakikos