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Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge Result & Analysis

Date: 22/08/2025
Time: 17:30
Final 2-1
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Vs
40%
28%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neuchatel Xamax FC win✓ Hit
40.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge win✗ Miss
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D00D02L13L12L31W23L11D51W02LH·FC 11/04A·STA18/04H·FC 25/04A·BEL03/05H·ÉTO09/05A·STA16/05H·FC 23/05H·STA25/07A·BEL02/08A·FC 09/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.731.531.871.471.60
vs Stronger (7)0.712.141.002.250.332.00
vs Similar (23)1.741.611.731.731.751.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D02L01L12L21W13L01L01L11D01LA·FC 13/04H·FC 18/04A·FC 27/04H·STA02/05A·NEU09/05H·FC 16/05A·FC 23/05A·RAP25/07H·FC 03/08A·FC 08/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.171.801.201.071.13
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.000.000.501.50
vs Similar (27)1.561.191.931.291.151.08
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.9%
Under 2.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.7%
Under 3.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.8%
No
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1 ✓
8.8%
1-0
8.2%
1-2
7.7%
0-0
7.6%
0-1
7.0%
2-0
6.9%
2-2
5.7%
Neuchatel Xamax FC goals ↓
Étoile Carouge goals →
01234
07.6%7.0%5.3%2.3%0.7%
18.2%13%7.7%3.3%1.1%
26.9%8.8%5.7%2.4%0.8%
33.4%4.3%2.8%1.2%0.4%
41.2%1.6%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (down), columns = Étoile Carouge goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Vaduz
2.25
FC Aarau
2.22
Yverdon Sport
1.86
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.39
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
Rapperswil
1.22
Étoile Carouge
1.11
FC WIL 1900
1.11
Stade Nyonnais
0.78
Bellinzona
0.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.25 points better than Étoile Carouge in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Aarau
2.14
Yverdon Sport
2.08
FC Vaduz
2.08
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
Rapperswil
1.44
Étoile Carouge
1.28
Bellinzona
1.11
FC WIL 1900
1.08
Stade Nyonnais
0.92
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.25 goals better than Étoile Carouge in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.28).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vaduz
1.14
FC Aarau
1.31
Yverdon Sport
1.33
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.42
Étoile Carouge
1.50
FC WIL 1900
1.53
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.56
Stade Nyonnais
1.67
Rapperswil
1.72
Bellinzona
2.14
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.06 goals worse than Étoile Carouge in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D02L11D12L21W01L10W11D01LH·FC 11/04A·STA18/04H·FC 25/04A·BEL03/05H·ÉTO09/05A·STA16/05H·FC 23/05H·STA25/07A·BEL02/08A·FC 09/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.770.730.670.600.87
vs Stronger (7)0.290.860.500.750.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.780.740.820.640.750.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D00D10W21W11D01L00D10W00DA·FC 13/04H·FC 18/04A·FC 27/04H·STA02/05A·NEU09/05H·FC 16/05A·FC 23/05A·RAP25/07H·FC 03/08A·FC 08/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.471.000.330.600.60
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (27)0.890.441.070.360.690.54
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D00D02L00D10W22D01L40W01LH·FC 11/04A·STA18/04H·FC 25/04A·BEL03/05H·ÉTO09/05A·STA16/05H·FC 23/05H·STA25/07A·BEL02/08A·FC 09/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.970.801.200.870.73
vs Stronger (7)0.431.290.501.500.331.00
vs Similar (23)0.960.870.911.091.000.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L01L02L00D02L00D01L01L01LA·FC 13/04H·FC 18/04A·FC 27/04H·STA02/05A·NEU09/05H·FC 16/05A·FC 23/05A·RAP25/07H·FC 03/08A·FC 08/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.700.800.870.470.53
vs Stronger (3)0.330.330.000.000.500.50
vs Similar (27)0.670.740.860.930.460.54
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Étoile Carouge have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Étoile Carouge have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Étoile Carouge have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Étoile Carouge have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
NXF wins
0
Draws
4
ÉC wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge · H/A from NXF
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/25HNXF Vs Étoile Carouge1-2
07/02/25AÉtoile Carouge Vs NXF2-1
18/10/24HNXF Vs Étoile Carouge0-3
26/07/24AÉtoile Carouge Vs NXF3-1

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/25AFC Aarau Vs NXF2-0
02/08/25ABellinzona Vs NXF1-5
25/07/25HNXF Vs Stade Nyonnais1-1
23/05/25HNXF Vs FC WIL 19002-3
16/05/25AStade Nyonnais Vs NXF1-3
09/05/25HNXF Vs Étoile Carouge1-2
03/05/25ABellinzona Vs NXF3-1
25/04/25HNXF Vs FC Thun0-2
18/04/25AStade Lausanne-Ouchy Vs NXF0-0
11/04/25HNXF Vs FC Aarau1-1

Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/25AFC WIL 1900 Vs ÉC1-0
03/08/25HÉC Vs FC Vaduz1-1
25/07/25ARapperswil Vs ÉC1-0
23/05/25AFC Thun Vs ÉC1-0
16/05/25HÉC Vs FC Aarau1-3
09/05/25ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs ÉC1-2
02/05/25HÉC Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy1-2
27/04/25AFC Vaduz Vs ÉC1-0
18/04/25HÉC Vs FC Schaffhausen0-2
13/04/25AFC WIL 1900 Vs ÉC2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWL1.26
HomeDLLLD1.42
AwayDLWWL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%38%31%
AVG goals3.283.622.96
Over 1.5 %92%96%88%
Over 2.5 %70%75%65%
Over 3.5 %44%54%35%
Scored1.621.961.31
Conceded1.661.671.65
BTTS72%79%65%
Clean Sheet12%12%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Étoile Carouge
Étoile Carouge
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL1.41
HomeWLLLD1.84
AwayLWLLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%53%25%
AVG goals2.792.952.65
Over 1.5 %72%84%60%
Over 2.5 %56%58%55%
Over 3.5 %33%37%30%
Scored1.511.791.25
Conceded1.281.161.40
BTTS59%68%50%
Clean Sheet21%21%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC VaduzFC Vaduz3681
69%
2.2
7541+34
3.2
81%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.11.1
-
2FC AarauFC Aarau3680
69%
2.2
7747+30
3.4
81%
69%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2132.11.3
-
3Yverdon SportYverdon Sport3667
56%
1.9
7548+27
3.4
83%
75%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.11.3
-
4Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy3650
39%
1.4
5951+8
3.1
89%
64%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.61.4
-
5Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3649
39%
1.4
5556-1
3.1
83%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.6
-
6RapperswilRapperswil3644
39%
1.2
5262-10
3.2
81%
67%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1221.41.7
-
7Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge3640
28%
1.1
4654-8
2.8
83%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.5
-
8FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003640
28%
1.1
3955-16
2.6
69%
47%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.11.5
-
9Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais3628
14%
0.8
3360-27
2.6
64%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.91.7
-
10BellinzonaBellinzona3623
14%
0.6
4077-37
3.2
81%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.12.1
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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