The match between Neuchatel Xamax FC and Étoile Carouge is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds of a draw or an away victory still significant. The expected total goals hover at 3.1, yet the most likely total is two goals, with a 23% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.8% probability. Neuchatel Xamax, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 2.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded, while Étoile Carouge, on the road, averages 1.55 scored and 1.27 conceded. The home win probability is 41%, the draw 26%, and the away win 33%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Under 6.5 (96.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.5%), Under 5.5 (90.5%), Home +2 handicap (84.1%), Over 1.5 (82.7%), and Away under 2.5 goals (81.8%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are assigned win chances.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Neuchatel Xamax FC win
44.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge win
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.63
1.80
1.47
1.07
1.80
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.00
1.20
2.20
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (22)
1.55
1.50
2.10
1.10
1.08
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Étoile Carouge
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.43
1.13
1.33
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.23
1.35
1.07
1.29
1.42
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.1%
Under 2.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.7%
Under 3.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.7%
No
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
7.4%
1-0
6.6%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
0-0
5.5%
3-1
5.2%
Neuchatel Xamax FC goals ↓
Étoile Carouge goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
5.1%
4.3%
2.0%
0.7%
1
6.6%
12%
7.4%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.6%
9.2%
6.4%
3.0%
1.0%
3
3.8%
5.2%
3.7%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.6%
2.3%
1.6%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (down), columns = Étoile Carouge goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.33
Yverdon Sport
2.00
SC Kriens
1.67
FC Winterthur
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Étoile Carouge
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
FC WIL 1900
0.83
Rapperswil
0.67
Stade Nyonnais
0.33
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.17 points better than Étoile Carouge in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Winterthur
2.00
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.83
SC Kriens
1.67
Yverdon Sport
1.67
FC WIL 1900
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Rapperswil
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
Étoile Carouge
1.00
Stade Nyonnais
0.67
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.50 goals better than Étoile Carouge in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0.50
SC Kriens
1.00
Yverdon Sport
1.00
Étoile Carouge
1.00
FC Winterthur
1.17
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
FC Aarau
1.67
Stade Nyonnais
1.83
Rapperswil
2.17
FC WIL 1900
2.67
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.50 goals worse than Étoile Carouge in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Neuchatel Xamax FC or Draw
69.8%
Avg Implied -
44%
26%
30%
covers Neuchatel Xamax FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC or Étoile Carouge
74.4%
Avg Implied -
44%
26%
30%
covers Neuchatel Xamax FC + Étoile Carouge
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Étoile Carouge
55.8%
Avg Implied -
44%
26%
30%
covers Draw + Étoile Carouge
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5
Over
82.0%
Under
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5
Over
51.2%
Under
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5
Over
24.7%
Under
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 3.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5
Over
75.2%
Under
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5
Over
40.6%
Under
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Neuchatel Xamax FC, so a minus line means Neuchatel Xamax FC give that many goals of a start and Étoile Carouge receive them. At -1, Neuchatel Xamax FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Neuchatel Xamax FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Neuchatel Xamax FC)
Neuchatel Xamax FC -2
10.3%
Draw -2
13.7%
Étoile Carouge +2
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Neuchatel Xamax FC)
Neuchatel Xamax FC -1
24.0%
Draw -1
20.2%
Étoile Carouge +1
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Neuchatel Xamax FC)
Neuchatel Xamax FC +1
69.8%
Draw +1
16.2%
Étoile Carouge -1
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Neuchatel Xamax FC)
Neuchatel Xamax FC +2
86.0%
Draw +2
9.0%
Étoile Carouge -2
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.93
0.93
0.80
0.33
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.75
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (22)
0.77
1.00
1.20
0.70
0.42
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Étoile Carouge
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.40
0.67
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.65
0.43
0.64
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.87
0.67
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
1.25
0.80
1.20
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.50
0.90
0.40
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Étoile Carouge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Étoile Carouge
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.73
0.67
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.69
0.64
0.64
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Étoile Carouge over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (25)
€6m
SL (24)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
SK (16)
€3m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Étoile Carouge have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
SK (5)
€0m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Étoile Carouge have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (7)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SK (3)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Étoile Carouge have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
SK (8)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Étoile Carouge have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Yverdon Sport
SC Kriens
FC Winterthur
FC Aarau
FC WIL 1900
Rapperswil
Stade Nyonnais