Neuchatel Xamax FC are tipped to win, the model’s pick and the highest home win probability of 48%. The match is expected to see 2.8 goals on average, with a 25% chance of exactly two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.7% probability. Neuchatel’s home form shows they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded against stronger opponents, while FC Aarau’s away record against weaker sides is 1.57 scored and 2.29 conceded. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.6% chance. The draw probability sits at 27%, and the away win probability is 25%. The final score of 3-1 confirms the home win. Neuchatel’s recent run of three straight losses ends with a 1-2 loss to Yverdon Sport, whereas Aarau comes off a 2-2 draw with FC WIL 1900.
Results analysis
Neuchatel Xamax FC’s recent run of two wins after three defeats set the stage for a home triumph, while FC Aarau, still recovering from a draw, struggled on the road. The final score was 3-1, confirming a home win that matched the model’s pick, which carried a 48% probability. The model’s selection was correct. Its suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, hit with a 77.6% chance. The most likely scoreline of 2-1 (9.5%) and the 2-goal total (25%) were not reached, but the overall outcome aligned with the prediction, underscoring the model’s accuracy in this contest.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Neuchatel Xamax FC win✓ Hit
48.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau win✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.43
1.53
1.33
1.20
1.53
vs Stronger (11)
1.36
1.36
2.00
0.80
0.83
1.83
vs Similar (19)
1.37
1.47
1.30
1.60
1.44
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Aarau
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.50
1.80
1.27
1.13
1.73
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.67
5.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.09
1.40
1.00
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (16)
1.62
1.75
1.67
1.33
1.57
2.29
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.6%
Under 1.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.5%
Under 2.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.3%
Under 3.5
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.8%
No
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
9.1%
2-0
8.4%
0-0
7.4%
1-2
6.5%
0-1
5.9%
2-2
5.4%
Neuchatel Xamax FC goals ↓
FC Aarau goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
5.9%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
1
9.1%
13%
6.5%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.4%
9.5%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.6%
5.2%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.9%
2.2%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (down), columns = FC Aarau goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sion
2.19
FC Thun
2.11
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
FC Vaduz
1.36
FC WIL 1900
1.22
Stade Nyonnais
1.19
FC Aarau
1.19
Bellinzona
1.17
FC Schaffhausen
1.06
Baden
0.72
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.17 points better than FC Aarau in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Thun
2.03
FC Sion
2.00
FC Vaduz
1.86
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
FC Aarau
1.42
FC WIL 1900
1.33
Stade Nyonnais
1.25
Bellinzona
1.08
FC Schaffhausen
1.00
Baden
0.86
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.11 goals better than FC Aarau in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Sion
0.64
FC Thun
1.06
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.25
Bellinzona
1.39
FC WIL 1900
1.44
FC Schaffhausen
1.53
FC Vaduz
1.53
Stade Nyonnais
1.61
FC Aarau
1.64
Baden
2.28
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.39 goals better than FC Aarau in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.64).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.73
0.67
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
0.36
0.80
0.40
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.68
0.70
0.80
0.56
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Aarau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.87
0.67
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.82
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.75
0.78
0.67
1.00
0.86
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
0.80
0.67
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
1.00
1.20
0.40
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.79
0.60
0.80
0.89
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Aarau
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.93
0.60
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.27
0.80
0.20
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
1.00
0.89
0.67
0.57
1.43
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (28)
€30m
FT (25)
€17m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
SN (21)
€3m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Aarau have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (10)
€15m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Aarau have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (6)
€6m
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Aarau have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (12)
€9m
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
BEL (15)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Aarau have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Sion
FC Thun
FC Vaduz
FC WIL 1900
Stade Nyonnais
Bellinzona
FC Schaffhausen
Baden