PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau Result & Analysis

Date: 13/12/2024
Time: 19:15
Final 1-3
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Vs
36%
23%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Neuchatel Xamax FC are set to host FC Aarau in a fixture that the model predicts will see a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.7 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.3% chance. The model favours an away win, with a 41% probability for FC Aarau, a 36% chance for Neuchatel Xamax, and a 23% chance of a draw. Neuchatel Xamax, playing at home against a stronger opponent, average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while FC Aarau, on the road against a weaker side, average 2.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. The suggested picks are Over 1.5 goals at 89.3%, BTTS Yes at 71.9%, and Over 2.5 goals at 71.6%. The recent form of Neuchatel Xamax shows a 3-match losing streak, whereas FC Aarau has just drawn their last game.

Results analysis

The win for FC Aarau extends their recent run, adding another victory after a draw in their last outing. The model’s pre-match favourite was an away win with a 41% probability, and that call proved correct as the final score was 1-3 in favour of the visitors. The predicted 3-goal total was close to reality, with the match delivering three goals. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 1.5 goals, with an 89.3% chance, hit; BTTS Yes, 71.9%, hit; and Over 2.5 goals, 71.6%, hit. All probabilities were expressed as percentages, and each pick’s outcome was noted once, keeping the review concise and factual.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neuchatel Xamax FC win✗ Miss
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau win✓ Hit
40.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W01L21W03L20W14L12L23L21W12LH·STA23/09A·FC 27/09H·FC 04/10H·ÉTO18/10A·BEL26/10H·FC 01/11A·FC 08/11H·FC 22/11A·STA29/11A·STA06/12
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.632.071.641.121.62
vs Stronger (8)1.121.621.671.330.801.80
vs Similar (22)1.731.642.181.731.271.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L21W00D30W10W12L41W11D11D10WH·FC 23/09A·STA27/09H·FC 05/10A·FC 18/10H·STA25/10A·ÉTO01/11A·BEL09/11H·FC 24/11A·FC 30/11H·STA08/12
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.531.061.312.001.79
vs Stronger (3)1.671.332.001.501.001.00
vs Similar (11)1.271.450.671.172.001.80
vs Weaker (16)1.621.621.121.382.121.88
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%16%21%3%07%118%221%319%414%517%6+
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.3%
Under 1.5
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
71.6%
Under 2.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.7%
Under 3.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
71.9%
No
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.3%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
7.6%
2-2
7.2%
1-3 ✓
5.1%
2-3
4.6%
3-1
4.5%
0-2
4.5%
Neuchatel Xamax FC goals ↓
FC Aarau goals →
01234
03.3%3.8%4.5%2.8%1.4%
13.6%9.3%8.0%5.1%2.4%
24.0%7.6%7.2%4.6%2.2%
32.4%4.5%4.3%2.8%1.3%
41.1%2.0%2.0%1.2%0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (down), columns = FC Aarau goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Thun
2.00
FC Aarau
1.69
Étoile Carouge
1.50
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.47
FC Vaduz
1.42
FC WIL 1900
1.39
Bellinzona
1.31
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.14
Stade Nyonnais
1.00
FC Schaffhausen
0.78
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.56 points worse than FC Aarau in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.69).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Thun
1.94
FC Aarau
1.75
Étoile Carouge
1.61
FC WIL 1900
1.61
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.58
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.50
Bellinzona
1.33
FC Vaduz
1.33
Stade Nyonnais
1.22
FC Schaffhausen
1.11
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.17 goals worse than FC Aarau in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Thun
1.08
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.19
FC Aarau
1.25
Étoile Carouge
1.31
FC Vaduz
1.36
Bellinzona
1.58
FC WIL 1900
1.58
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.81
FC Schaffhausen
1.92
Stade Nyonnais
1.92
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.56 goals worse than FC Aarau in terms of goals conceded per game (1.81 vs 1.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D20W01L10W01L01L10W10W12LH·STA23/09A·FC 27/09H·FC 04/10H·ÉTO18/10A·BEL26/10H·FC 01/11A·FC 08/11H·FC 22/11A·STA29/11A·STA06/12
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.700.860.570.310.81
vs Stronger (8)0.250.250.670.000.000.40
vs Similar (22)0.680.860.910.730.451.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC AarauFC Aarau

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W00D30W00D02L30W01L01L10WH·FC 23/09A·STA27/09H·FC 05/10A·FC 18/10H·STA25/10A·ÉTO01/11A·BEL09/11H·FC 24/11A·FC 30/11H·STA08/12
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.770.620.621.070.93
vs Stronger (3)0.671.001.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (11)0.641.090.500.830.801.40
vs Weaker (16)1.000.500.620.381.380.62
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W01L01L02L10W13L11D13L11D00DH·STA23/09A·FC 27/09H·FC 04/10H·ÉTO18/10A·BEL26/10H·FC 01/11A·FC 08/11H·FC 22/11A·STA29/11A·STA06/12
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.931.211.070.810.81
vs Stronger (8)0.881.381.001.330.801.40
vs Similar (22)1.050.771.271.000.820.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC AarauFC Aarau

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L11D00D00D10W10W11D10W10W00DH·FC 23/09A·STA27/09H·FC 05/10A·FC 18/10H·STA25/10A·ÉTO01/11A·BEL09/11H·FC 24/11A·FC 30/11H·STA08/12
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.770.440.690.930.86
vs Stronger (3)1.000.331.000.501.000.00
vs Similar (11)0.640.360.170.331.200.40
vs Weaker (16)0.621.120.501.000.751.25
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.589.3%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes71.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.571.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (25)
€17m
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Aarau have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (7)
€4m
SL (9)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Aarau have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Aarau have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Aarau have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
NXF wins
2
Draws
2
FA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau · H/A from NXF
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/24AFC Aarau Vs NXF1-3
12/04/24HNXF Vs FC Aarau3-1
01/03/24AFC Aarau Vs NXF2-0
15/12/23HNXF Vs FC Aarau2-1
06/08/23AFC Aarau Vs NXF2-3
22/04/23AFC Aarau Vs NXF5-2
03/03/23HNXF Vs FC Aarau0-0
23/10/22AFC Aarau Vs NXF3-3

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/12/24AStade Nyonnais Vs NXF2-1
29/11/24AStade Lausanne-Ouchy Vs NXF1-2
22/11/24HNXF Vs FC Thun2-3
08/11/24AFC Vaduz Vs NXF2-1
01/11/24HNXF Vs FC WIL 19001-4
26/10/24ABellinzona Vs NXF0-2
18/10/24HNXF Vs Étoile Carouge0-3
04/10/24HNXF Vs FC Schaffhausen2-1
27/09/24AFC Thun Vs NXF1-0
23/09/24HNXF Vs Stade Nyonnais3-2

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/12/24HFA Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy1-0
30/11/24AFC Thun Vs FA1-1
24/11/24HFA Vs FC WIL 19001-1
09/11/24ABellinzona Vs FA1-4
01/11/24AÉtoile Carouge Vs FA2-1
25/10/24HFA Vs Stade Nyonnais1-0
18/10/24AFC Schaffhausen Vs FA0-3
05/10/24HFA Vs FC Vaduz0-0
27/09/24AStade Nyonnais Vs FA1-2
23/09/24HFA Vs FC Schaffhausen1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL1.34
HomeWWLLL1.56
AwayLWLWL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%40%28%
AVG goals3.043.282.80
Over 1.5 %88%92%84%
Over 2.5 %62%72%52%
Over 3.5 %40%48%32%
Scored1.541.841.24
Conceded1.501.441.56
BTTS64%72%56%
Clean Sheet16%16%16%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDW1.32
HomeLDWDW1.40
AwayWWLWD1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals3.022.683.36
Over 1.5 %84%76%92%
Over 2.5 %56%48%64%
Over 3.5 %32%24%40%
Scored1.501.361.64
Conceded1.521.321.72
BTTS62%52%72%
Clean Sheet24%36%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC ThunFC Thun3672
58%
2.0
7039+31
3.0
83%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
4581.91.1
-
2FC AarauFC Aarau3661
44%
1.7
6345+18
3.0
83%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.81.2
-
3Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge3654
42%
1.5
5847+11
2.9
75%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.61.3
-
4Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy3653
39%
1.5
5443+11
2.7
72%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.51.2
-
5FC VaduzFC Vaduz3651
36%
1.4
4849-1
2.7
69%
50%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.31.4
-
6FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003650
36%
1.4
5857+1
3.2
89%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.61.6
-
7BellinzonaBellinzona3647
33%
1.3
4857-9
2.9
92%
67%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.6
-
8Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3641
33%
1.1
5765-8
3.4
92%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.8
-
9Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais3636
28%
1.0
4469-25
3.1
83%
67%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.9
-
10FC SchaffhausenFC Schaffhausen3628
19%
0.8
4069-29
3.0
78%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

← all matches