Neuchatel Xamax FC are set to host FC Winterthur in a match that the model predicts will end in a home win, with a 40% probability for the visitors to draw and a 36% chance of a Winterthur victory. The expected total of goals is 3.5, with the most likely total number of goals being three at a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.2% chance. Neuchatel’s home form shows an average of 2.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded against similar opposition, while Winterthur’s away record averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.3%), Under 6.5 (93.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.0%), Over 1.5 (87.3%), Under 5.5 (85.7%), Home over 0.5 goals (83.6%), and Away over 0.5 goals (81.6%). Neuchatel’s recent form, after two straight defeats, shows a 40% chance of a home win, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 36% chance of an away win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Neuchatel Xamax FC win
38.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur win
37.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.63
1.80
1.47
1.07
1.80
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.00
1.20
2.20
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (22)
1.55
1.50
2.10
1.10
1.08
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Winterthur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Winterthur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.20
1.27
2.00
1.40
2.40
vs Stronger (23)
1.22
2.43
1.08
2.25
1.36
2.64
vs Similar (7)
1.71
1.43
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.0%
Under 1.5
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.2%
Under 2.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
47.8%
Under 3.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
70.1%
No
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
7.9%
2-2
7.1%
3-1
4.8%
1-3
4.7%
2-0
4.6%
0-2
4.4%
Neuchatel Xamax FC goals ↓
FC Winterthur goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
4.1%
4.4%
2.6%
1.2%
1
4.2%
9.9%
7.9%
4.7%
2.1%
2
4.6%
8.1%
7.1%
4.2%
1.9%
3
2.7%
4.8%
4.3%
2.5%
1.1%
4
1.2%
2.2%
1.9%
1.1%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (down), columns = FC Winterthur goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.33
Yverdon Sport
2.00
SC Kriens
1.67
FC Winterthur
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Étoile Carouge
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
FC WIL 1900
0.83
Rapperswil
0.67
Stade Nyonnais
0.33
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Winterthur are level in average points per game (both 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Winterthur
2.00
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.83
SC Kriens
1.67
Yverdon Sport
1.67
FC WIL 1900
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Rapperswil
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
Étoile Carouge
1.00
Stade Nyonnais
0.67
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.50 goals worse than FC Winterthur in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0.50
SC Kriens
1.00
Yverdon Sport
1.00
Étoile Carouge
1.00
FC Winterthur
1.17
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
FC Aarau
1.67
Stade Nyonnais
1.83
Rapperswil
2.17
FC WIL 1900
2.67
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.33 goals worse than FC Winterthur in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Neuchatel Xamax FC or Draw
62.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
24%
38%
covers Neuchatel Xamax FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC or FC Winterthur
76.2%
Avg Implied -
39%
24%
38%
covers Neuchatel Xamax FC + FC Winterthur
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Winterthur
61.3%
Avg Implied -
39%
24%
38%
covers Draw + FC Winterthur
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5
Over
83.5%
Under
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5
Over
53.7%
Under
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5
Over
26.9%
Under
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 3.5
Over
10.9%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 0.5
Over
83.0%
Under
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 1.5
Over
52.8%
Under
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 2.5
Over
26.1%
Under
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 3.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Neuchatel Xamax FC, so a minus line means Neuchatel Xamax FC give that many goals of a start and FC Winterthur receive them. At -1, Neuchatel Xamax FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Neuchatel Xamax FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Neuchatel Xamax FC)
Neuchatel Xamax FC -2
9.0%
Draw -2
11.8%
FC Winterthur +2
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Neuchatel Xamax FC)
Neuchatel Xamax FC -1
20.8%
Draw -1
17.9%
FC Winterthur +1
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Neuchatel Xamax FC)
Neuchatel Xamax FC +1
62.5%
Draw +1
17.6%
FC Winterthur -1
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Neuchatel Xamax FC)
Neuchatel Xamax FC +2
80.1%
Draw +2
11.4%
FC Winterthur -2
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.93
0.93
0.80
0.33
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.75
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (22)
0.77
1.00
1.20
0.70
0.42
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Winterthur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Winterthur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.47
0.73
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (23)
0.57
0.91
0.33
0.75
0.82
1.09
vs Similar (7)
1.14
0.57
1.00
0.67
1.25
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.87
0.67
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
1.25
0.80
1.20
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.50
0.90
0.40
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Winterthur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Winterthur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.37
0.80
1.27
0.47
1.47
vs Stronger (23)
0.65
1.52
0.75
1.50
0.55
1.55
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.86
1.00
0.33
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Winterthur over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Winterthur · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Christian Gomis40%
Andrin Hunziker31%
Nishan Burkart18%
Pajtim Kasami17%
Roman Buess12%
Elias Maluvunu11%
Theo Golliard9%
Brian Beyer7%
Randy Schneider6%
Alexandre Jankewitz6%
Tibault Citherlet6%
Bafode Dansoko5%
Souleymane Diaby5%
Luca Zuffi4%
Silvan Sidler4%
Remo Arnold3%
Mirlind Kryeziu0%
Fabian Rohner0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Lukas Mühl0%
Basil Stillhart0%
Dario Ulrich0%
Marvin Martins0%
Francis Momoh0%
Adrian Durrer0%
Stéphane Cueni0%
Carmine Chiappetta0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Ledjan Sahitaj0%
Rhodri Smith0%
Leandro Maksutaj0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fabian Rohner47%
Mirlind Kryeziu44%
Carmine Chiappetta33%
Adrian Durrer22%
Alexandre Jankewitz22%
Silvan Sidler21%
Pajtim Kasami21%
Stéphane Cueni20%
Christian Gomis20%
Andrin Hunziker19%
Marvin Martins18%
Roman Buess17%
Ledjan Sahitaj17%
Tibault Citherlet17%
Luca Zuffi14%
Bafode Dansoko14%
Lukas Mühl13%
Remo Arnold13%
Randy Schneider13%
Elias Maluvunu11%
Francis Momoh9%
Souleymane Diaby9%
Stefanos Kapino8%
Dario Ulrich8%
Rhodri Smith8%
Theo Golliard6%
Basil Stillhart0%
Nishan Burkart0%
Brian Beyer0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Leandro Maksutaj0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Theo Golliard17%
Fabian Rohner12%
Andrin Hunziker11%
Silvan Sidler11%
Randy Schneider10%
Nishan Burkart9%
Dario Ulrich8%
Rhodri Smith8%
Elias Maluvunu7%
Brian Beyer7%
Alexandre Jankewitz6%
Adrian Durrer6%
Tibault Citherlet6%
Bafode Dansoko5%
Souleymane Diaby5%
Roman Buess4%
Mirlind Kryeziu0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Lukas Mühl0%
Luca Zuffi0%
Basil Stillhart0%
Pajtim Kasami0%
Remo Arnold0%
Marvin Martins0%
Francis Momoh0%
Stéphane Cueni0%
Christian Gomis0%
Carmine Chiappetta0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Ledjan Sahitaj0%
Leandro Maksutaj0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andrin Hunziker33%
Christian Gomis20%
Pajtim Kasami12%
Fabian Rohner12%
Theo Golliard11%
Bafode Dansoko10%
Nishan Burkart9%
Dario Ulrich8%
Silvan Sidler4%
Elias Maluvunu4%
Randy Schneider3%
Mirlind Kryeziu0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Lukas Mühl0%
Luca Zuffi0%
Basil Stillhart0%
Roman Buess0%
Remo Arnold0%
Marvin Martins0%
Francis Momoh0%
Alexandre Jankewitz0%
Adrian Durrer0%
Stéphane Cueni0%
Souleymane Diaby0%
Carmine Chiappetta0%
Brian Beyer0%
Loïc Lüthi0%
Ledjan Sahitaj0%
Rhodri Smith0%
Tibault Citherlet0%
Leandro Maksutaj0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (25)
€6m
SL (24)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
SK (16)
€3m
Neuchatel Xamax FC's squad is €1m less valuable than FC Winterthur's (€5m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
SK (5)
€0m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Winterthur have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (7)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SK (3)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Neuchatel Xamax FC's midfield is €1m less valuable than FC Winterthur's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
SK (8)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and FC Winterthur have a similar defence value (both €2m).
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
NXF wins
0
Draws
0
FW wins
Head-to-head
Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Winterthur · H/A from NXF
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Yverdon Sport
SC Kriens
Étoile Carouge
FC Aarau
FC WIL 1900
Rapperswil
Stade Nyonnais