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Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Nyonnais Result & Analysis

Date: 23/09/2024
Time: 17:30
Final 3-2
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Vs
52%
24%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Stade Nyonnais
Stade Nyonnais
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Neuchatel Xamax FC are tipped to edge Stade Nyonnais, with the model favouring a home win. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals in total, yet the single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying an 11.2% probability. Neuchatel’s home form shows they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Stade Nyonnais, playing away, averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded. The model’s suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.9% chance. Home win probability sits at 52%, draw at 24%, and away win at 23%. Neuchatel’s recent run of LLWWW follows two straight defeats, and Stade Nyonnais come off a 0-3 loss. These figures paint a picture of a competitive contest where the home side’s edge in recent form and scoring potency could tip the balance.

Results analysis

Neuchatel Xamax FC’s recent run of three wins after two defeats set the stage for a home victory, and the model’s favourite, a home win with a 52% probability, proved correct as the match finished 3-2. The prediction that the total would be 2 goals, the most likely scoreline, fell short of the actual tally. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals at 82.9%, hit its mark, confirming the game’s high-scoring nature. With the home side’s form improving and the away team struggling after a 0-3 loss, the outcome aligned with the model’s expectations, underscoring its accuracy.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neuchatel Xamax FC win✓ Hit
52.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais win✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D40W22D32W13L31W22D04L41W21WH·FC 11/05H·STA17/05A·BAD20/05H·STA19/07A·ÉTO26/07A·FC 03/08H·BEL09/08A·FC 23/08H·FC 30/08A·FC 20/09
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.402.071.001.441.75
vs Stronger (8)1.621.252.250.501.002.00
vs Similar (22)1.771.452.001.201.581.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L04L43W00D21W03L30W24L03L24LH·BEL09/05A·NEU17/05H·FC 20/05A·FC 21/07H·BEL26/07H·FC 02/08A·FC 10/08A·FC 25/08H·STA30/08H·ÉTO20/09
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.901.191.941.431.86
vs Stronger (11)1.552.451.832.001.203.00
vs Similar (19)1.161.580.801.901.561.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%317%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.4%
Under 2.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.1%
Under 3.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.1%
No
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.9%
1-0
7.3%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
6.2%
2-2
5.9%
0-0
5.4%
Neuchatel Xamax FC goals ↓
Stade Nyonnais goals →
01234
05.4%4.3%3.3%1.3%0.4%
17.3%11%6.2%2.5%0.8%
27.9%9.7%5.9%2.4%0.7%
35.0%6.2%3.8%1.5%0.5%
42.4%2.9%1.8%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (down), columns = Stade Nyonnais goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Thun
2.00
FC Aarau
1.69
Étoile Carouge
1.50
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.47
FC Vaduz
1.42
FC WIL 1900
1.39
Bellinzona
1.31
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.14
Stade Nyonnais
1.00
FC Schaffhausen
0.78
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.14 points better than Stade Nyonnais in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Thun
1.94
FC Aarau
1.75
Étoile Carouge
1.61
FC WIL 1900
1.61
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.58
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.50
Bellinzona
1.33
FC Vaduz
1.33
Stade Nyonnais
1.22
FC Schaffhausen
1.11
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.36 goals better than Stade Nyonnais in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.22).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Thun
1.08
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.19
FC Aarau
1.25
Étoile Carouge
1.31
FC Vaduz
1.36
Bellinzona
1.58
FC WIL 1900
1.58
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.81
FC Schaffhausen
1.92
Stade Nyonnais
1.92
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.11 goals better than Stade Nyonnais in terms of goals conceded per game (1.81 vs 1.92).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W11D21W03L01L21W01L11D01LH·FC 11/05H·STA17/05A·BAD20/05H·STA19/07A·ÉTO26/07A·FC 03/08H·BEL09/08A·FC 23/08H·FC 30/08A·FC 20/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.730.930.500.440.94
vs Stronger (8)0.500.381.000.250.000.50
vs Similar (22)0.730.860.900.600.581.08
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L21W00D01L01L20W11D02L12LH·BEL09/05A·NEU17/05H·FC 20/05A·FC 21/07H·BEL26/07H·FC 02/08A·FC 10/08A·FC 25/08H·STA30/08H·ÉTO20/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.700.500.880.360.50
vs Stronger (11)0.550.910.670.830.401.00
vs Similar (19)0.370.580.400.900.330.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W11D11D10W30W01L03L30W20WH·FC 11/05H·STA17/05A·BAD20/05H·STA19/07A·ÉTO26/07A·FC 03/08H·BEL09/08A·FC 23/08H·FC 30/08A·FC 20/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.671.140.501.000.81
vs Stronger (8)1.120.881.250.251.001.50
vs Similar (22)1.050.591.100.601.000.58
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L03L22D00D20W02L10W13L01L12LH·BEL09/05A·NEU17/05H·FC 20/05A·FC 21/07H·BEL26/07H·FC 02/08A·FC 10/08A·FC 25/08H·STA30/08H·ÉTO20/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.200.691.061.071.36
vs Stronger (11)1.001.551.171.170.802.00
vs Similar (19)0.791.000.401.001.221.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (25)
€17m
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
Neuchatel Xamax FC's squad is €2m more valuable than Stade Nyonnais's (€5m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (7)
€4m
SL (9)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Stade Nyonnais have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Stade Nyonnais have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Stade Nyonnais have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
NXF wins
2
Draws
0
SN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Nyonnais · H/A from NXF
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/24HNXF Vs Stade Nyonnais4-0
16/02/24AStade Nyonnais Vs NXF0-2
20/10/23HNXF Vs Stade Nyonnais1-1
28/07/23AStade Nyonnais Vs NXF1-1

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/24AFC Schaffhausen Vs NXF1-2
30/08/24HNXF Vs FC Vaduz4-1
23/08/24AFC WIL 1900 Vs NXF4-0
09/08/24HNXF Vs Bellinzona2-2
03/08/24AFC Aarau Vs NXF1-3
26/07/24AÉtoile Carouge Vs NXF3-1
19/07/24HNXF Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy3-2
20/05/24ABaden Vs NXF2-2
17/05/24HNXF Vs Stade Nyonnais4-0
11/05/24HNXF Vs FC Vaduz1-1

Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/24HSN Vs Étoile Carouge2-4
30/08/24HSN Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy0-3
25/08/24AFC Thun Vs SN4-2
10/08/24AFC WIL 1900 Vs SN0-3
02/08/24HSN Vs FC Schaffhausen0-3
26/07/24HSN Vs Bellinzona2-1
21/07/24AFC Vaduz Vs SN0-0
20/05/24HSN Vs FC Aarau4-3
17/05/24ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs SN4-0
09/05/24HSN Vs Bellinzona1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWW1.34
HomeDWWDW1.67
AwayDLWLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%42%23%
AVG goals3.103.173.04
Over 1.5 %90%92%88%
Over 2.5 %58%67%50%
Over 3.5 %40%42%38%
Scored1.581.921.27
Conceded1.521.251.77
BTTS64%67%62%
Clean Sheet18%25%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Stade Nyonnais
Stade Nyonnais
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.16
HomeWWLLL1.27
AwayDLDWL1.05
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%36%24%
AVG goals2.953.052.86
Over 1.5 %84%86%81%
Over 2.5 %51%59%43%
Over 3.5 %33%32%33%
Scored1.261.271.24
Conceded1.701.771.62
BTTS53%50%57%
Clean Sheet23%23%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC ThunFC Thun3672
58%
2.0
7039+31
3.0
83%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
4581.91.1
-
2FC AarauFC Aarau3661
44%
1.7
6345+18
3.0
83%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.81.2
-
3Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge3654
42%
1.5
5847+11
2.9
75%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.61.3
-
4Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy3653
39%
1.5
5443+11
2.7
72%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.51.2
-
5FC VaduzFC Vaduz3651
36%
1.4
4849-1
2.7
69%
50%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.31.4
-
6FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003650
36%
1.4
5857+1
3.2
89%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.61.6
-
7BellinzonaBellinzona3647
33%
1.3
4857-9
2.9
92%
67%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.6
-
8Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3641
33%
1.1
5765-8
3.4
92%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.8
-
9Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais3636
28%
1.0
4469-25
3.1
83%
67%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.9
-
10FC SchaffhausenFC Schaffhausen3628
19%
0.8
4069-29
3.0
78%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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