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Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Nyonnais Result & Analysis

Date: 16/03/2025
Time: 13:15
Final 4-0
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Vs
44%
25%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Stade Nyonnais
Stade Nyonnais
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Neuchatel Xamax FC’s recent run of two defeats followed by three wins suggests a rebound, while Stade Nyonnais, still recovering from a 0-3 loss, will look to reverse a poor away spell. The model favours a home win, with a 44% chance, a 25% chance of a draw and a 31% chance for the visitors. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a lively encounter, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.4% probability. Neuchatel’s home form shows an average of 1.85 goals scored and 1.62 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Stade Nyonnais averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on the road. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.7% probability of success.

Results analysis

The model’s prediction proved spot on, as Neuchatel Xamax FC secured a decisive 4-0 home win over Stade Nyonnais, extending their recent run of three victories after two straight defeats. The pre-match favourite was a Home win, assigned a 44% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, carried an 83.7% probability and hit, as the match produced four goals. With a 25% chance of a draw and a 31% chance of an away win, the outcome matched the model’s forecast, confirming the accuracy of the Pythia prediction.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neuchatel Xamax FC win✓ Hit
43.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais win✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W12L13L12L02L12L00D42W11D02LA·STA29/11A·STA06/12H·FC 13/12H·STA24/01A·FC 31/01A·ÉTO07/02H·FC 14/02A·FC 21/02H·BEL02/03A·FC 07/03
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.771.801.801.401.73
vs Stronger (5)1.202.001.503.001.001.33
vs Similar (25)1.681.721.851.621.501.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D21W10W12L11D01L12L30W22D03LH·FC 03/12H·NEU06/12A·FC 13/12H·FC 24/01A·FC 01/02H·FC 07/02A·FC 15/02H·STA21/02A·FC 28/02H·ÉTO07/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.272.071.312.121.212.00
vs Stronger (11)1.452.641.432.291.503.25
vs Similar (19)1.161.741.222.001.101.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.7%
Under 2.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.4%
Under 3.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.1%
No
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.5%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
6.3%
1-0
6.2%
3-1
5.2%
0-0
5.2%
Neuchatel Xamax FC goals ↓
Stade Nyonnais goals →
01234
05.2%4.9%4.3%2.1%0.8%
16.2%11%7.5%3.6%1.3%
26.3%9.0%6.5%3.2%1.1%
33.6%5.2%3.8%1.8%0.7%
41.6%2.3%1.6%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (down), columns = Stade Nyonnais goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Thun
2.00
FC Aarau
1.69
Étoile Carouge
1.50
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.47
FC Vaduz
1.42
FC WIL 1900
1.39
Bellinzona
1.31
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.14
Stade Nyonnais
1.00
FC Schaffhausen
0.78
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.14 points better than Stade Nyonnais in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Thun
1.94
FC Aarau
1.75
Étoile Carouge
1.61
FC WIL 1900
1.61
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.58
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.50
Bellinzona
1.33
FC Vaduz
1.33
Stade Nyonnais
1.22
FC Schaffhausen
1.11
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.36 goals better than Stade Nyonnais in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.22).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Thun
1.08
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.19
FC Aarau
1.25
Étoile Carouge
1.31
FC Vaduz
1.36
Bellinzona
1.58
FC WIL 1900
1.58
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.81
FC Schaffhausen
1.92
Stade Nyonnais
1.92
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.11 goals better than Stade Nyonnais in terms of goals conceded per game (1.81 vs 1.92).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W12L11D11D01L01L00D11D00D01LA·STA29/11A·STA06/12H·FC 13/12H·STA24/01A·FC 31/01A·ÉTO07/02H·FC 14/02A·FC 21/02H·BEL02/03A·FC 07/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.800.800.600.331.00
vs Stronger (5)0.400.601.000.500.000.67
vs Similar (25)0.600.840.770.620.421.08
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L21W10W10W00D01L11D00D21W03LH·FC 03/12H·NEU06/12A·FC 13/12H·FC 24/01A·FC 01/02H·FC 07/02A·FC 15/02H·STA21/02A·FC 28/02H·ÉTO07/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.800.441.190.710.36
vs Stronger (11)0.640.910.431.001.000.75
vs Similar (19)0.530.740.441.330.600.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D02L01L01L11D00D31W11D01LA·STA29/11A·STA06/12H·FC 13/12H·STA24/01A·FC 31/01A·ÉTO07/02H·FC 14/02A·FC 21/02H·BEL02/03A·FC 07/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.971.001.201.070.73
vs Stronger (5)0.801.400.502.501.000.67
vs Similar (25)1.080.881.081.001.080.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D02L11D00D01L30W01L00DH·FC 03/12H·NEU06/12A·FC 13/12H·FC 24/01A·FC 01/02H·FC 07/02A·FC 15/02H·STA21/02A·FC 28/02H·ÉTO07/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.270.880.940.501.64
vs Stronger (11)0.821.731.001.290.502.50
vs Similar (19)0.631.000.780.670.501.30
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (25)
€17m
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
Neuchatel Xamax FC's squad is €2m more valuable than Stade Nyonnais's (€5m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (7)
€4m
SL (9)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Stade Nyonnais have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Stade Nyonnais have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Stade Nyonnais have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
NXF wins
2
Draws
1
SN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Nyonnais · H/A from NXF
DateH/AGameScore
06/12/24AStade Nyonnais Vs NXF2-1
23/09/24HNXF Vs Stade Nyonnais3-2
17/05/24HNXF Vs Stade Nyonnais4-0
16/02/24AStade Nyonnais Vs NXF0-2
20/10/23HNXF Vs Stade Nyonnais1-1
28/07/23AStade Nyonnais Vs NXF1-1

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/03/25AFC Aarau Vs NXF2-0
02/03/25HNXF Vs Bellinzona1-1
21/02/25AFC Schaffhausen Vs NXF2-4
14/02/25HNXF Vs FC Vaduz0-0
07/02/25AÉtoile Carouge Vs NXF2-1
31/01/25AFC WIL 1900 Vs NXF2-0
24/01/25HNXF Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy1-2
13/12/24HNXF Vs FC Aarau1-3
06/12/24AStade Nyonnais Vs NXF2-1
29/11/24AStade Lausanne-Ouchy Vs NXF1-2

Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/03/25HSN Vs Étoile Carouge0-3
28/02/25AFC Thun Vs SN2-2
21/02/25HSN Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy3-0
15/02/25AFC WIL 1900 Vs SN2-1
07/02/25HSN Vs FC Schaffhausen0-1
01/02/25AFC Vaduz Vs SN1-1
24/01/25HSN Vs FC Aarau1-2
13/12/24AFC Schaffhausen Vs SN0-1
06/12/24HSN Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC2-1
03/12/24HSN Vs FC Vaduz1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWDL1.30
HomeLLLDD1.50
AwayLLLWL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%38%31%
AVG goals3.083.212.96
Over 1.5 %86%88%85%
Over 2.5 %64%71%58%
Over 3.5 %42%50%35%
Scored1.521.751.31
Conceded1.561.461.65
BTTS64%75%54%
Clean Sheet16%17%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Stade Nyonnais
Stade Nyonnais
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL1.06
HomeWLLWL1.15
AwayDWDLD0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%35%21%
AVG goals3.243.233.25
Over 1.5 %82%85%79%
Over 2.5 %62%69%54%
Over 3.5 %40%35%46%
Scored1.301.271.33
Conceded1.941.961.92
BTTS58%50%67%
Clean Sheet20%19%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC ThunFC Thun3672
58%
2.0
7039+31
3.0
83%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
4581.91.1
-
2FC AarauFC Aarau3661
44%
1.7
6345+18
3.0
83%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.81.2
-
3Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge3654
42%
1.5
5847+11
2.9
75%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.61.3
-
4Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy3653
39%
1.5
5443+11
2.7
72%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.51.2
-
5FC VaduzFC Vaduz3651
36%
1.4
4849-1
2.7
69%
50%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.31.4
-
6FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003650
36%
1.4
5857+1
3.2
89%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.61.6
-
7BellinzonaBellinzona3647
33%
1.3
4857-9
2.9
92%
67%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.6
-
8Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3641
33%
1.1
5765-8
3.4
92%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.8
-
9Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais3636
28%
1.0
4469-25
3.1
83%
67%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.9
-
10FC SchaffhausenFC Schaffhausen3628
19%
0.8
4069-29
3.0
78%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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