Neuchatel Xamax FC are tipped to win as the model favours a home victory, with a 46% chance of triumph, a 30% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of a Stade Nyonnais win. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14% probability. Neuchatel’s home form shows they average 1.58 goals scored and 1.25 conceded against similarly matched opponents, while Stade Nyonnais, playing away, manage only 0.22 goals scored and concede 1.11. The model’s single suggested pick is Under 3.5 goals, with a 79.5% probability. The recent run for Neuchatel, after two straight defeats, is a mixed LLWWW, whereas Stade Nyonnais, coming off a loss, have LDLLL. The match is expected to see the home side edge out a win, a 46% chance, with a draw at 30% and the away side at 24%. The Under 3.5 goal selection stands at 79.5%.
Results analysis
Neuchatel Xamax FC’s recent run of three wins after two defeats set the stage for a decisive home performance, while Stade Nyonnais struggled with four losses in a row. The match finished 4-1 in favour of Neuchatel, a total that far exceeded the model’s expected 2.3 goals and the most likely 2-goal outcome. The model’s favourite, a home win at 46%, proved correct. Its suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals, at 79.5%, missed as the game saw four goals. The final score confirmed a home victory, aligning with the model’s prediction and highlighting the team’s strong form at home.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Neuchatel Xamax FC win✓ Hit
45.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais win✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.60
1.53
1.40
1.20
1.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.00
1.33
2.00
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.50
1.50
1.58
1.25
1.42
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Nyonnais
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.30
1.40
1.47
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (11)
1.36
1.91
1.80
2.80
1.00
1.17
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.95
1.20
0.80
0.22
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.7%
Under 1.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.0%
Under 2.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.5%
Under 3.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.9%
No
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
12.3%
0-0
11.1%
2-0
9.4%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
6.0%
3-0
4.3%
Neuchatel Xamax FC goals ↓
Stade Nyonnais goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.9%
4.3%
1.4%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
6.0%
1.9%
0.4%
2
9.4%
8.8%
4.1%
1.3%
0.3%
3
4.3%
4.1%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.5%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (down), columns = Stade Nyonnais goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Vaduz
2.25
FC Aarau
2.22
Yverdon Sport
1.86
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.39
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
Rapperswil
1.22
Étoile Carouge
1.11
FC WIL 1900
1.11
Stade Nyonnais
0.78
Bellinzona
0.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.58 points better than Stade Nyonnais in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 0.78).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Aarau
2.14
Yverdon Sport
2.08
FC Vaduz
2.08
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
Rapperswil
1.44
Étoile Carouge
1.28
Bellinzona
1.11
FC WIL 1900
1.08
Stade Nyonnais
0.92
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.61 goals better than Stade Nyonnais in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 0.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vaduz
1.14
FC Aarau
1.31
Yverdon Sport
1.33
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.42
Étoile Carouge
1.50
FC WIL 1900
1.53
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.56
Stade Nyonnais
1.67
Rapperswil
1.72
Bellinzona
2.14
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.11 goals better than Stade Nyonnais in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.67
0.60
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.79
0.75
0.50
0.58
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Nyonnais
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.93
0.47
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.64
1.00
1.20
0.67
0.17
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.47
0.90
0.10
0.00
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.87
0.80
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.71
0.83
0.75
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Nyonnais
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.77
0.47
1.00
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.27
0.80
1.60
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.26
0.47
0.30
0.70
0.22
0.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
Neuchatel Xamax FC's squad is €2m more valuable than Stade Nyonnais's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Stade Nyonnais have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Stade Nyonnais have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Stade Nyonnais have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →