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Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Nyonnais Result & Analysis

Date: 10/04/2026
Time: 17:30
Final 4-1
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Vs
46%
30%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Stade Nyonnais
Stade Nyonnais
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Neuchatel Xamax FC are tipped to win as the model favours a home victory, with a 46% chance of triumph, a 30% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of a Stade Nyonnais win. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14% probability. Neuchatel’s home form shows they average 1.58 goals scored and 1.25 conceded against similarly matched opponents, while Stade Nyonnais, playing away, manage only 0.22 goals scored and concede 1.11. The model’s single suggested pick is Under 3.5 goals, with a 79.5% probability. The recent run for Neuchatel, after two straight defeats, is a mixed LLWWW, whereas Stade Nyonnais, coming off a loss, have LDLLL. The match is expected to see the home side edge out a win, a 46% chance, with a draw at 30% and the away side at 24%. The Under 3.5 goal selection stands at 79.5%.

Results analysis

Neuchatel Xamax FC’s recent run of three wins after two defeats set the stage for a decisive home performance, while Stade Nyonnais struggled with four losses in a row. The match finished 4-1 in favour of Neuchatel, a total that far exceeded the model’s expected 2.3 goals and the most likely 2-goal outcome. The model’s favourite, a home win at 46%, proved correct. Its suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals, at 79.5%, missed as the game saw four goals. The final score confirmed a home victory, aligning with the model’s prediction and highlighting the team’s strong form at home.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neuchatel Xamax FC win✓ Hit
45.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais win✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L30W31W01L00D00D32W01L13L25LA·BEL30/01H·STA08/02A·ÉTO13/02A·FC 22/02H·FC 01/03A·STA06/03H·RAP15/03A·FC 21/03H·FC 03/04A·FC 07/04
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.601.531.401.201.80
vs Stronger (6)0.832.001.332.000.332.00
vs Similar (24)1.501.501.581.251.421.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D01L11D01L00D11D21W00D14LA·FC 01/02H·BEL06/02A·YVE13/02H·FC 20/02A·FC 01/03H·NEU06/03A·STA14/03H·RAP20/03A·ÉTO03/04H·YVE06/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.301.401.470.531.13
vs Stronger (11)1.361.911.802.801.001.17
vs Similar (19)0.740.951.200.800.221.11
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.7%
Under 1.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.0%
Under 2.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.5%
Under 3.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.9%
No
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
12.3%
0-0
11.1%
2-0
9.4%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
6.0%
3-0
4.3%
Neuchatel Xamax FC goals ↓
Stade Nyonnais goals →
01234
011%7.9%4.3%1.4%0.3%
112%14%6.0%1.9%0.4%
29.4%8.8%4.1%1.3%0.3%
34.3%4.1%1.9%0.6%0.1%
41.5%1.4%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Neuchatel Xamax FC goals (down), columns = Stade Nyonnais goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Vaduz
2.25
FC Aarau
2.22
Yverdon Sport
1.86
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.39
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
Rapperswil
1.22
Étoile Carouge
1.11
FC WIL 1900
1.11
Stade Nyonnais
0.78
Bellinzona
0.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.58 points better than Stade Nyonnais in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 0.78).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Aarau
2.14
Yverdon Sport
2.08
FC Vaduz
2.08
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
Rapperswil
1.44
Étoile Carouge
1.28
Bellinzona
1.11
FC WIL 1900
1.08
Stade Nyonnais
0.92
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.61 goals better than Stade Nyonnais in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 0.92).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vaduz
1.14
FC Aarau
1.31
Yverdon Sport
1.33
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.42
Étoile Carouge
1.50
FC WIL 1900
1.53
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.56
Stade Nyonnais
1.67
Rapperswil
1.72
Bellinzona
2.14
Neuchatel Xamax FC is 0.11 goals better than Stade Nyonnais in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L30W11D00D00D00D11D00D01L23LA·BEL30/01H·STA08/02A·ÉTO13/02A·FC 22/02H·FC 01/03A·STA06/03H·RAP15/03A·FC 21/03H·FC 03/04A·FC 07/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.830.670.600.471.07
vs Stronger (6)0.171.000.331.000.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.670.790.750.500.581.08
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D10W01L00D10W20W00D12LA·FC 01/02H·BEL06/02A·YVE13/02H·FC 20/02A·FC 01/03H·NEU06/03A·STA14/03H·RAP20/03A·ÉTO03/04H·YVE06/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.530.930.470.270.60
vs Stronger (11)0.820.641.001.200.670.17
vs Similar (19)0.470.470.900.100.000.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D20W01L00D00D21W01L12L02LA·BEL30/01H·STA08/02A·ÉTO13/02A·FC 22/02H·FC 01/03A·STA06/03H·RAP15/03A·FC 21/03H·FC 03/04A·FC 07/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.770.870.800.730.73
vs Stronger (6)0.671.001.001.000.331.00
vs Similar (24)0.830.710.830.750.830.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Nyonnais) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D01L01L00D00D01L01L00D02LA·FC 01/02H·BEL06/02A·YVE13/02H·FC 20/02A·FC 01/03H·NEU06/03A·STA14/03H·RAP20/03A·ÉTO03/04H·YVE06/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.770.471.000.270.53
vs Stronger (11)0.551.270.801.600.331.00
vs Similar (19)0.260.470.300.700.220.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Neuchatel Xamax FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neuchatel Xamax FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stade Nyonnais over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
Neuchatel Xamax FC's squad is €2m more valuable than Stade Nyonnais's (€5m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Stade Nyonnais have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Stade Nyonnais have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Neuchatel Xamax FC and Stade Nyonnais have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
NXF wins
3
Draws
1
SN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Stade Nyonnais · H/A from NXF
DateH/AGameScore
06/03/26AStade Nyonnais Vs NXF0-0
19/12/25AStade Nyonnais Vs NXF1-1
25/07/25HNXF Vs Stade Nyonnais1-1
16/05/25AStade Nyonnais Vs NXF1-3
16/03/25HNXF Vs Stade Nyonnais4-0
06/12/24AStade Nyonnais Vs NXF2-1
23/09/24HNXF Vs Stade Nyonnais3-2
17/05/24HNXF Vs Stade Nyonnais4-0

Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/04/26AFC WIL 1900 Vs NXF5-2
03/04/26HNXF Vs FC Vaduz1-3
21/03/26AFC Aarau Vs NXF1-0
15/03/26HNXF Vs Rapperswil3-2
06/03/26AStade Nyonnais Vs NXF0-0
01/03/26HNXF Vs FC WIL 19000-0
22/02/26AFC Vaduz Vs NXF1-0
13/02/26AÉtoile Carouge Vs NXF1-3
08/02/26HNXF Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy3-0
30/01/26ABellinzona Vs NXF5-0

Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/04/26HSN Vs Yverdon Sport1-4
03/04/26AÉtoile Carouge Vs SN0-0
20/03/26HSN Vs Rapperswil2-1
14/03/26AStade Lausanne-Ouchy Vs SN1-1
06/03/26HSN Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC0-0
01/03/26AFC Vaduz Vs SN1-0
20/02/26HSN Vs FC Aarau1-1
13/02/26AYverdon Sport Vs SN1-0
06/02/26HSN Vs Bellinzona1-1
01/02/26AFC WIL 1900 Vs SN0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Neuchatel Xamax FC
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL1.10
HomeLWDWL1.29
AwayWLDLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%33%27%
AVG goals3.003.003.00
Over 1.5 %84%88%81%
Over 2.5 %62%62%62%
Over 3.5 %34%33%35%
Scored1.401.581.23
Conceded1.601.421.77
BTTS64%71%58%
Clean Sheet16%21%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Stade Nyonnais
Stade Nyonnais
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 1 Wins / 6 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWDL1.06
HomeDDDWL1.23
AwayDLLDD0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%31%17%
AVG goals2.422.692.12
Over 1.5 %68%77%58%
Over 2.5 %44%54%33%
Over 3.5 %20%23%17%
Scored1.041.270.79
Conceded1.381.421.33
BTTS52%58%46%
Clean Sheet22%23%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC VaduzFC Vaduz3681
69%
2.2
7541+34
3.2
81%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.11.1
-
2FC AarauFC Aarau3680
69%
2.2
7747+30
3.4
81%
69%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2132.11.3
-
3Yverdon SportYverdon Sport3667
56%
1.9
7548+27
3.4
83%
75%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.11.3
-
4Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy3650
39%
1.4
5951+8
3.1
89%
64%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.61.4
-
5Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3649
39%
1.4
5556-1
3.1
83%
67%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.6
-
6RapperswilRapperswil3644
39%
1.2
5262-10
3.2
81%
67%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1221.41.7
-
7Étoile CarougeÉtoile Carouge3640
28%
1.1
4654-8
2.8
83%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.5
-
8FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003640
28%
1.1
3955-16
2.6
69%
47%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.11.5
-
9Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais3628
14%
0.8
3360-27
2.6
64%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1010.91.7
-
10BellinzonaBellinzona3623
14%
0.6
4077-37
3.2
81%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.12.1
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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