This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.17
1.73
0.87
1.67
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.67
2.33
1.33
1.67
2.00
3.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.71
0.88
1.83
0.67
1.58
1.08
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.9%
@ 1.80-11.2%
Under 2.5
58.1%
@ 2.04+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.2%
Under 3.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.3%
No
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-1
11.5%
0-0
10.8%
1-2
8.7%
0-2
8.6%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
6.5%
2-0 ✓
4.8%
Newcastle goals ↓
Arsenal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
8.6%
3.9%
1.3%
1
8.3%
14%
8.7%
3.9%
1.3%
2
4.8%
6.5%
4.4%
2.0%
0.7%
3
1.6%
2.2%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newcastle goals (down), columns = Arsenal goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Manchester City
2.45
Liverpool
2.42
Chelsea
1.95
Tottenham
1.87
Arsenal
1.82
Manchester United
1.53
West Ham
1.47
Leicester
1.37
Brighton
1.34
Wolves
1.34
Newcastle
1.29
Crystal Palace
1.26
Brentford
1.21
Aston Villa
1.18
Southampton
1.05
Everton
1.03
Leeds
1.00
Burnley
0.92
Watford
0.61
Norwich
0.58
Newcastle is 0.53 points worse than Arsenal in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.61
Liverpool
2.47
Chelsea
2.00
Tottenham
1.82
Leicester
1.63
Arsenal
1.61
West Ham
1.58
Manchester United
1.50
Aston Villa
1.37
Crystal Palace
1.32
Brentford
1.26
Newcastle
1.16
Southampton
1.13
Everton
1.13
Brighton
1.11
Leeds
1.11
Wolves
1.00
Watford
0.89
Burnley
0.89
Norwich
0.61
Newcastle is 0.45 goals worse than Arsenal in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liverpool
0.68
Manchester City
0.68
Chelsea
0.87
Tottenham
1.05
Wolves
1.13
Brighton
1.16
Crystal Palace
1.21
Arsenal
1.26
West Ham
1.34
Burnley
1.39
Aston Villa
1.42
Brentford
1.47
Manchester United
1.50
Leicester
1.55
Newcastle
1.63
Everton
1.74
Southampton
1.76
Watford
2.03
Leeds
2.08
Norwich
2.21
Newcastle is 0.37 goals worse than Arsenal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
68%
Liverpool
63%
Chelsea
62%
Brighton
55%
Arsenal
53%
Manchester United
52%
Tottenham
52%
Leeds
52%
Leicester
52%
Crystal Palace
51%
West Ham
48%
Southampton
47%
Aston Villa
46%
Brentford
44%
Norwich
43%
Watford
41%
Newcastle
40%
Burnley
40%
Everton
39%
Newcastle is 13.5 percentage points worse than Arsenal in terms of average possession (40% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Newcastle
For 2.8 · Against 5.4 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 10.9 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arsenal
For 4.6 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 10.8 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newcastle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.4
10.0
3.8
3.8
3.9
20.3
20.7
19.9
vs Stronger (8)
9.0
8.5
9.5
3.8
3.8
3.8
17.6
19.2
16.0
vs Similar (28)
9.2
8.9
9.6
4.2
4.1
4.4
20.8
21.5
20.1
vs Weaker (14)
9.2
7.3
11.1
3.0
3.1
2.9
20.8
19.9
21.7
% over line
48%
36%
60%
58%
60%
56%
34%
36%
32%
% under line
52%
64%
40%
42%
40%
44%
66%
64%
68%
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
10.2
8.9
3.3
3.6
3.1
19.4
20.1
18.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
8.9
8.2
9.8
3.2
3.8
2.4
17.7
18.5
16.8
vs Weaker (39)
9.7
10.8
8.7
3.4
3.5
3.3
19.8
20.6
19.1
% over line
52%
56%
48%
40%
40%
40%
28%
32%
24%
% under line
48%
44%
52%
60%
60%
60%
72%
68%
76%
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Burnley
11.5
Southampton
11.4
Leicester
10.8
Brighton
10.7
Liverpool
10.7
Aston Villa
10.5
Manchester City
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Tottenham
10.4
Watford
10.4
Manchester United
10.4
Leeds
10.3
Everton
10.3
Chelsea
10.1
Wolves
9.9
West Ham
9.9
Crystal Palace
9.8
Brentford
9.6
Arsenal
9.5
Newcastle
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Leeds
4.3
Aston Villa
4.2
Newcastle
3.8
Tottenham
3.8
Everton
3.7
Brighton
3.7
Wolves
3.6
Chelsea
3.4
Crystal Palace
3.4
Arsenal
3.3
Manchester United
3.3
Watford
3.2
Southampton
3.1
Norwich
3.0
Brentford
3.0
Liverpool
2.9
Manchester City
2.9
Leicester
2.9
West Ham
2.9
Burnley
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aston Villa
24.5
Crystal Palace
23.5
Leeds
23.0
Watford
22.6
Norwich
21.6
Tottenham
21.5
Chelsea
21.3
Brentford
21.3
Southampton
21.1
Leicester
20.7
Newcastle
20.3
Everton
20.1
Brighton
20.1
Manchester United
19.7
Wolves
19.7
Arsenal
19.4
Liverpool
18.8
Burnley
18.8
Manchester City
18.2
West Ham
16.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
36.1%
Under 9.5
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.7%
Under 3.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
35.3%
Under 21.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Newcastle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.67
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.40
0.00
1.50
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.53
1.11
0.67
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.50
0.25
0.25
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
0.73
0.20
1.07
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (24)
0.88
0.38
0.67
0.17
1.08
0.58
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Newcastle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.90
0.53
0.67
0.33
1.13
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.60
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.76
0.44
0.67
0.38
0.88
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
1.00
0.67
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.67
1.50
0.33
1.33
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (24)
0.83
0.50
1.17
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Newcastle · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anthony Elanga67%
Joe Willock33%
Harvey Barnes33%
Yoane Wissa33%
Amar Dedić0%
Jacob Murphy0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Sven Botman0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Lewis Miley0%
Sean Steur0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jacob Ramsey67%
Jacob Murphy33%
Yoane Wissa33%
Sven Botman33%
Lewis Miley33%
Sean Steur33%
Joe Willock0%
Amar Dedić0%
Harvey Barnes0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Amar Dedić67%
Yoane Wissa33%
Malick Thiaw33%
Joe Willock0%
Harvey Barnes0%
Jacob Murphy0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Sven Botman0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Lewis Hall0%
Lewis Miley0%
Sean Steur0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Willock33%
Harvey Barnes33%
Yoane Wissa33%
Amar Dedić0%
Jacob Murphy0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Sven Botman0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Lewis Miley0%
Sean Steur0%
Arsenal · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Viktor Gyökeres30%
Kai Havertz26%
Bukayo Saka22%
Gabriel Jesus19%
Gabriel Martinelli17%
Leandro Trossard16%
Mikel Merino15%
Noni Madueke14%
Eberechi Eze14%
Martín Zubimendi9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Magalhães8%
Max Dowman8%
Declan Rice7%
Jurriën Timber7%
Ben White3%
Martin Ødegaard3%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Piero Hincapié3%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kepa Arrizabalaga36%
Riccardo Calafiori19%
Martín Zubimendi14%
Cristhian Mosquera14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Myles Lewis-Skelly14%
Declan Rice13%
Mikel Merino12%
Gabriel Jesus11%
Viktor Gyökeres11%
Ben White10%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Gabriel Martinelli10%
Kai Havertz9%
Piero Hincapié8%
Bukayo Saka6%
Leandro Trossard6%
William Saliba6%
Eberechi Eze4%
Noni Madueke2%
David Raya2%
Martin Ødegaard0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kai Havertz22%
Leandro Trossard20%
Martin Ødegaard19%
Declan Rice15%
Bukayo Saka14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Gabriel Martinelli13%
Myles Lewis-Skelly11%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Mikel Merino9%
Eberechi Eze8%
Ben White7%
Viktor Gyökeres6%
Riccardo Calafiori6%
Piero Hincapié5%
Noni Madueke5%
Gabriel Jesus4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Viktor Gyökeres24%
Bukayo Saka18%
Leandro Trossard16%
Eberechi Eze16%
Max Dowman15%
Gabriel Jesus15%
Mikel Merino12%
Noni Madueke10%
Kai Havertz9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Martinelli8%
Martin Ødegaard6%
Jurriën Timber5%
Declan Rice4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Gabriel Magalhães2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ben White0%
William Saliba0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Piero Hincapié0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
BUR (28)
€115m
NOR (34)
€107m
WAT (22)
€88m
LEI (22)
€69m
Newcastle's squad is €839m less valuable than Arsenal's (€568m vs €1406m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
NOR (10)
€46m
WAT (6)
€28m
LEI (7)
€20m
Newcastle's attack is €374m less valuable than Arsenal's (€234m vs €608m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
NOR (11)
€31m
LEI (4)
€13m
BUR (3)
€8m
Newcastle's midfield is €166m less valuable than Arsenal's (€124m vs €290m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
EVE (10)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
NOR (13)
€29m
WAT (10)
€22m
Newcastle's defence is €299m less valuable than Arsenal's (€210m vs €508m).
England: Premier League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Liverpool
Chelsea
Tottenham
Manchester United
West Ham
Leicester
Brighton
Wolves
Crystal Palace
Brentford
Aston Villa
Southampton
Everton
Leeds
Burnley
Watford
Norwich