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Newcastle vs Arsenal Result & Analysis

Date: 28/09/2025
Time: 16:30
Final 1-2
Newcastle
Newcastle
Vs
25%
29%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arsenal
Arsenal
England: Premier League
Referee: J Gillett

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Newcastle win✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.40
Edge
-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.26
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal win✓ Hit
46.5%
Avg Implied 43.0% · @ 2.21
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

NewcastleNewcastle

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W01L01L00D23L00D10W12L00D41WH·CHE11/05A·ARS18/05H·EVE25/05A·AST16/08H·LIV25/08A·LEE30/08H·WOL13/09H·BAR18/09A·BOU21/09H·BRA24/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.202.291.181.081.23
vs Stronger (7)1.001.861.671.670.502.00
vs Similar (16)1.621.122.301.300.500.83
vs Weaker (7)2.860.712.750.503.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArsenalArsenal

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D10W21W10W50W01L30W20W11D20WA·LIV11/05H·NEW18/05A·SOU25/05A·MAN17/08H·LEE23/08A·LIV31/08H·NOT13/09A·ATH16/09H·MAN21/09A·POR24/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.870.831.930.861.810.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)2.001.002.000.832.001.14
vs Weaker (17)1.760.711.880.881.670.56
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.1%
Under 1.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.1%
@ 2.11+0.3%
Under 2.5
54.9%
@ 1.71-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.8%
Under 3.5
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.2%
No
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-1
11.1%
0-0
9.6%
1-2 ✓
9.1%
0-2
9.0%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
6.3%
2-2
4.6%
Newcastle goals ↓
Arsenal goals →
01234
09.6%11%9.0%4.4%1.6%
17.2%14%9.1%4.5%1.6%
24.3%6.3%4.6%2.3%0.8%
31.4%2.1%1.6%0.8%0.3%
40.4%0.5%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newcastle goals (down), columns = Arsenal goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Chelsea
1.37
Fulham
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
West Ham
1.03
Burnley
0.58
Wolves
0.53
Newcastle is 0.95 points worse than Arsenal in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 2.24).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Everton
1.24
Fulham
1.24
West Ham
1.21
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Burnley
1.00
Wolves
0.71
Newcastle is 0.47 goals worse than Arsenal in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.87).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
West Ham
1.71
Wolves
1.79
Burnley
1.97
Newcastle is 0.74 goals worse than Arsenal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 0.71).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
West Ham
42%
Burnley
42%
Newcastle is 4.1 percentage points worse than Arsenal in terms of average possession (52% vs 56%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

NewcastleNewcastle

For 6.3 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.9

🚩 Corners

170632564104557163123710289710141089151710H·BRAA·BOUH·BARH·WOLA·LEEH·LIVA·ASTH·EVEA·ARSH·CHE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.4

🟨 Cards

7011224141133121433431365263567H·BRAA·BOUH·BARH·WOLA·LEEH·LIVA·ASTH·EVEA·ARSH·CHE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.6 · Total 22.5

⚠️ Fouls

320511107111210171510171511131299991316172327253224211822H·BRAA·BOUH·BARH·WOLA·LEEH·LIVA·ASTH·EVEA·ARSH·CHE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ArsenalArsenal

For 6.0 · Against 3.2 · Total 9.2

🚩 Corners

1706111222848322438510713713412114713174A·PORH·MANA·ATHH·NOTA·LIVH·LEEA·MANA·SOUH·NEWA·LIV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.5

🟨 Cards

60123111222413321423424250636H·MANA·ATHH·NOTA·LIVH·LEEA·MANA·SOUH·NEWA·LIVA·PAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 10.2 · Total 20.5

⚠️ Fouls

330561110151881110781119108799101311213319171929151823A·PORH·MANA·ATHH·NOTA·LIVH·LEEA·MANA·SOUH·NEWA·LIV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

NewcastleNewcastle

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.410.89.93.43.82.822.223.421.0
vs Stronger (11)10.510.011.33.95.81.624.827.819.7
vs Similar (30)10.411.89.33.63.63.621.921.921.9
vs Weaker (9)10.29.012.51.92.31.020.222.216.0
% over line59%67%50%44%59%26%59%71%45%
% under line41%33%50%56%41%74%41%29%55%
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArsenalArsenal

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.49.49.43.33.23.421.019.222.7
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (18)9.29.09.43.73.44.022.120.323.3
vs Weaker (32)9.59.69.43.13.13.120.418.722.3
% over line46%41%50%52%48%56%41%27%54%
% under line54%59%50%48%52%44%59%73%46%
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Tottenham
11.2
Newcastle
10.9
Bournemouth
10.7
Brentford
10.6
Liverpool
10.5
Aston Villa
10.4
Nottingham Forest
10.2
West Ham
10.1
Everton
10.0
Fulham
10.0
Crystal Palace
10.0
Sunderland
9.8
Leeds
9.8
Brighton
9.7
Manchester City
9.7
Wolves
9.6
Chelsea
9.5
Manchester United
9.5
Arsenal
9.3
Burnley
9.3

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
5.1
Nottingham Forest
4.6
Brighton
4.5
Chelsea
4.5
Sunderland
4.4
Newcastle
4.4
Crystal Palace
4.3
Aston Villa
4.2
Manchester United
4.2
Wolves
4.2
Brentford
3.9
Tottenham
3.9
Liverpool
3.9
Fulham
3.8
Arsenal
3.7
West Ham
3.5
Everton
3.5
Burnley
3.5
Manchester City
3.5
Leeds
3.2

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Bournemouth
24.3
Wolves
24.3
Tottenham
23.3
Brighton
23.2
Aston Villa
23.0
Sunderland
22.8
Newcastle
22.6
Chelsea
22.4
Burnley
22.1
Leeds
22.1
West Ham
22.0
Manchester United
21.9
Fulham
21.5
Nottingham Forest
21.5
Everton
21.5
Arsenal
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.0
Liverpool
20.6
Brentford
19.1
Manchester City
17.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.3%
Under 9.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.8%
Under 3.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
60.6%
Under 21.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

NewcastleNewcastle

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D00D01L00D10W00D00D20WH·CHE11/05A·ARS18/05H·EVE25/05A·AST16/08H·LIV25/08A·LEE30/08H·WOL13/09H·BAR18/09A·BOU21/09H·BRA24/09
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.531.240.410.690.69
vs Stronger (7)0.290.710.330.330.251.00
vs Similar (16)1.000.441.500.500.170.33
vs Weaker (7)1.710.571.250.252.331.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArsenalArsenal

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D10W10W20W00D10W00D01L10WA·LIV11/05H·NEW18/05A·SOU25/05A·MAN17/08H·LEE23/08A·LIV31/08H·NOT13/09A·ATH16/09H·MAN21/09A·POR24/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.400.790.360.690.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.620.620.670.500.570.71
vs Weaker (17)0.820.240.880.250.780.22
Clean sheet %63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

NewcastleNewcastle

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L01L00D22D00D00D12L00D21WH·CHE11/05A·ARS18/05H·EVE25/05A·AST16/08H·LIV25/08A·LEE30/08H·WOL13/09H·BAR18/09A·BOU21/09H·BRA24/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.671.060.760.380.54
vs Stronger (7)0.711.141.331.330.251.00
vs Similar (16)0.620.690.800.800.330.50
vs Weaker (7)1.140.141.500.250.670.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArsenalArsenal

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W11D00D30W01L20W20W10W10WA·LIV11/05H·NEW18/05A·SOU25/05A·MAN17/08H·LEE23/08A·LIV31/08H·NOT13/09A·ATH16/09H·MAN21/09A·POR24/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.431.140.501.120.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.380.381.330.331.430.43
vs Weaker (17)0.940.471.000.620.890.33
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards87.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.576.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls75.9%-------✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners74.8%-------✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards74.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls71.2%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Newcastle
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anthony Gordon29%
Bruno Guimarães22%
Harvey Barnes21%
William Osula21%
Nick Woltemade20%
Joelinton12%
Yoane Wissa11%
Jacob Murphy9%
Lewis Miley9%
Malick Thiaw8%
Sven Botman5%
Fabian Schär5%
Jacob Ramsey5%
Dan Burn5%
Sandro Tonali4%
Joe Willock3%
Lewis Hall2%
Anthony Elanga2%
Kieran Trippier0%
Emil Krafth0%
Nick Pope0%
Aaron Ramsdale0%
Valentino Livramento0%
Alex Murphy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joelinton38%
Dan Burn28%
Bruno Guimarães22%
Malick Thiaw17%
Kieran Trippier17%
Joe Willock16%
Yoane Wissa15%
Fabian Schär14%
Aaron Ramsdale14%
Sandro Tonali13%
Jacob Ramsey12%
Anthony Gordon9%
Lewis Hall9%
Nick Pope6%
Sven Botman5%
Jacob Murphy4%
Valentino Livramento4%
Harvey Barnes4%
Anthony Elanga2%
Nick Woltemade2%
Emil Krafth0%
William Osula0%
Alex Murphy0%
Lewis Miley0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bruno Guimarães15%
Lewis Miley12%
Dan Burn12%
Sandro Tonali12%
Kieran Trippier11%
Jacob Murphy11%
Anthony Gordon11%
Harvey Barnes11%
Nick Woltemade8%
Joe Willock8%
Jacob Ramsey7%
Joelinton5%
Lewis Hall4%
Valentino Livramento4%
Yoane Wissa4%
William Osula3%
Nick Pope3%
Sven Botman3%
Anthony Elanga2%
Fabian Schär0%
Emil Krafth0%
Aaron Ramsdale0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Alex Murphy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony Gordon24%
Bruno Guimarães15%
Harvey Barnes14%
Jacob Murphy13%
Fabian Schär10%
Joelinton7%
Nick Woltemade6%
William Osula6%
Sandro Tonali4%
Yoane Wissa4%
Sven Botman3%
Joe Willock3%
Kieran Trippier0%
Emil Krafth0%
Nick Pope0%
Dan Burn0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Aaron Ramsdale0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Valentino Livramento0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Alex Murphy0%
Lewis Miley0%
Arsenal
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Viktor Gyökeres30%
Kai Havertz26%
Bukayo Saka22%
Gabriel Jesus19%
Gabriel Martinelli17%
Leandro Trossard16%
Mikel Merino15%
Noni Madueke14%
Eberechi Eze14%
Martín Zubimendi9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Magalhães8%
Max Dowman8%
Declan Rice7%
Jurriën Timber7%
Ben White3%
Martin Ødegaard3%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Piero Hincapié3%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kepa Arrizabalaga36%
Riccardo Calafiori19%
Martín Zubimendi14%
Cristhian Mosquera14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Myles Lewis-Skelly14%
Declan Rice13%
Mikel Merino12%
Gabriel Jesus11%
Viktor Gyökeres11%
Ben White10%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Gabriel Martinelli10%
Kai Havertz9%
Piero Hincapié8%
Bukayo Saka6%
Leandro Trossard6%
William Saliba6%
Eberechi Eze4%
Noni Madueke2%
David Raya2%
Martin Ødegaard0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kai Havertz22%
Leandro Trossard20%
Martin Ødegaard19%
Declan Rice15%
Bukayo Saka14%
Jurriën Timber14%
Gabriel Martinelli13%
Myles Lewis-Skelly11%
Gabriel Magalhães10%
Christian Nørgaard10%
Mikel Merino9%
Eberechi Eze8%
Ben White7%
Viktor Gyökeres6%
Riccardo Calafiori6%
Piero Hincapié5%
Noni Madueke5%
Gabriel Jesus4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
William Saliba2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ethan Nwaneri0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Max Dowman0%
Marli Salmon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Viktor Gyökeres24%
Bukayo Saka18%
Leandro Trossard16%
Eberechi Eze16%
Max Dowman15%
Gabriel Jesus15%
Mikel Merino12%
Noni Madueke10%
Kai Havertz9%
Ethan Nwaneri8%
Gabriel Martinelli8%
Martin Ødegaard6%
Jurriën Timber5%
Declan Rice4%
Martín Zubimendi4%
Riccardo Calafiori3%
Gabriel Magalhães2%
Kepa Arrizabalaga0%
David Raya0%
Ben White0%
William Saliba0%
Christian Nørgaard0%
Piero Hincapié0%
Myles Lewis-Skelly0%
Cristhian Mosquera0%
Marli Salmon0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
BUR (28)
€115m
Newcastle's squad is €839m less valuable than Arsenal's (€568m vs €1406m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
BUR (14)
€70m
Newcastle's attack is €374m less valuable than Arsenal's (€234m vs €608m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
FUL (3)
€28m
BUR (3)
€8m
Newcastle's midfield is €166m less valuable than Arsenal's (€124m vs €290m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
BUR (11)
€37m
Newcastle's defence is €299m less valuable than Arsenal's (€210m vs €508m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
NEW wins
1
Draws
3
ARS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Newcastle vs Arsenal · H/A from NEW
DateH/AGameScore
18/05/25AArsenal Vs NEW1-0
05/02/25HNEW Vs Arsenal2-0
07/01/25AArsenal Vs NEW0-2
02/11/24HNEW Vs Arsenal1-0
24/02/24AArsenal Vs NEW4-1
04/11/23HNEW Vs Arsenal1-0
07/05/23HNEW Vs Arsenal0-2
03/01/23AArsenal Vs NEW0-0

NewcastleNewcastle

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/25HNEW Vs Bradford4-1
21/09/25ABournemouth Vs NEW0-0
18/09/25HNEW Vs Barcelona1-2
13/09/25HNEW Vs Wolves1-0
30/08/25ALeeds Vs NEW0-0
25/08/25HNEW Vs Liverpool2-3
16/08/25AAston Villa Vs NEW0-0
25/05/25HNEW Vs Everton0-1
18/05/25AArsenal Vs NEW1-0
11/05/25HNEW Vs Chelsea2-0

ArsenalArsenal

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/25APort Vale Vs ARS0-2
21/09/25HARS Vs Manchester City1-1
16/09/25AAthletic Club Vs ARS0-2
13/09/25HARS Vs Nottingham Forest3-0
31/08/25ALiverpool Vs ARS1-0
23/08/25HARS Vs Leeds5-0
17/08/25AManchester United Vs ARS0-1
25/05/25ASouthampton Vs ARS1-2
18/05/25HARS Vs Newcastle1-0
11/05/25ALiverpool Vs ARS2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Newcastle
Newcastle
England: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLDW1.80
HomeLLWLW2.00
AwayDLDDD1.57
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%63%43%
AVG goals2.903.152.61
Over 1.5 %78%81%74%
Over 2.5 %56%59%52%
Over 3.5 %36%37%35%
Scored1.782.111.39
Conceded1.121.041.22
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet40%41%39%
Corners10.3710.819.90
Cards4.104.903.25
Arsenal
Arsenal
England: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW1.96
HomeLWWWD1.96
AwayWWLWW1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%56%56%
AVG goals2.802.682.92
Over 1.5 %78%76%80%
Over 2.5 %50%56%44%
Over 3.5 %26%24%28%
Scored1.961.882.04
Conceded0.840.800.88
BTTS52%44%60%
Clean Sheet36%44%28%
Corners9.399.419.38
Cards3.673.593.74

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArsenalArsenal3885
68%
2.2
7127+44
2.6
71%
53%
24%
9.1
42%
3.2
47%
21.3
47%
1406
6082905081.90.7
56%
2Manchester CityManchester City3878
61%
2.1
7735+42
2.9
87%
63%
21%
10.3
58%
3.9
63%
20.9
42%
1326
6351605312.00.9
60%
3Manchester UnitedManchester United3871
53%
1.9
6950+19
3.1
84%
63%
37%
9.7
53%
3.8
58%
21.2
47%
929
4322362611.81.3
52%
4Aston VillaAston Villa3865
50%
1.7
5649+7
2.8
74%
53%
29%
10.2
68%
3.9
61%
23.0
63%
536
2201601561.51.3
53%
5LiverpoolLiverpool3860
45%
1.6
6353+10
3.1
84%
61%
29%
10.5
55%
3.6
50%
20.7
37%
980
5182012601.71.4
59%
6BournemouthBournemouth3857
34%
1.5
5854+4
2.9
76%
55%
42%
10.9
63%
4.3
63%
22.5
53%
573
2851061821.51.4
50%
7SunderlandSunderland3854
37%
1.4
4248-6
2.4
71%
45%
18%
9.0
45%
4.1
55%
22.1
58%
392
1571101251.11.3
45%
8BrightonBrighton3853
37%
1.4
5246+6
2.6
82%
50%
18%
9.7
58%
4.3
63%
22.0
55%
620
1901802491.41.2
53%
9BrentfordBrentford3853
37%
1.4
5552+3
2.8
82%
53%
37%
10.2
63%
3.7
53%
19.6
34%
565
2281282091.41.4
47%
10ChelseaChelsea3852
37%
1.4
5852+6
2.9
87%
66%
32%
10.4
68%
4.7
71%
23.4
68%
1407
6142785141.51.4
57%
11FulhamFulham3852
39%
1.4
4751-4
2.6
71%
50%
24%
10.5
66%
3.8
58%
20.8
39%
329
178281231.21.3
51%
12NewcastleNewcastle3849
37%
1.3
5355-2
2.8
76%
63%
34%
11.0
61%
4.2
61%
22.1
53%
568
2341242101.41.4
52%
13EvertonEverton3849
34%
1.3
4750-3
2.6
76%
45%
21%
9.4
42%
3.7
47%
21.7
58%
459
1741621231.21.3
44%
14LeedsLeeds3847
29%
1.2
4956-7
2.8
74%
55%
37%
9.5
53%
3.4
42%
21.7
47%
427
166981631.31.5
46%
15Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace3845
29%
1.2
4151-10
2.4
71%
55%
21%
9.4
47%
3.7
63%
20.2
37%
505
229931821.11.3
45%
16Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest3844
29%
1.2
4851-3
2.6
82%
53%
26%
10.1
58%
3.3
42%
22.2
53%
551
263522361.31.3
46%
17TottenhamTottenham3841
26%
1.1
4857-9
2.8
82%
63%
26%
10.2
50%
4.7
71%
22.3
58%
920
2502823881.31.5
50%
18West HamWest Ham3839
26%
1.0
4665-19
2.9
87%
61%
29%
11.0
66%
3.8
55%
21.7
47%
274
84481411.21.7
42%
19BurnleyBurnley3822
11%
0.6
3875-37
3.0
84%
50%
39%
9.6
53%
2.9
39%
19.5
37%
115
708371.02.0
42%
20WolvesWolves3820
8%
0.5
2768-41
2.5
79%
45%
24%
9.4
58%
3.8
58%
23.8
66%
273
79791160.71.8
-
England: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →

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