Newcastle are tipped to lift the trophy at St James’ Park, with the model’s pick a home win and a 48% chance of victory. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.5% probability. Newcastle’s home form shows they average 2.25 goals scored and concede just 1.0 against similar opposition, while Aston Villa’s away numbers are 1.54 scored and 1.08 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 92.1%, Under 23.5 fouls at 83.9%, Over 1.5 cards at 79.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.3% and Under 21.5 fouls at 71.2%. The probabilities for the match outcomes are 48% for a Newcastle win, 26% for a draw and 26% for an Aston Villa win.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Aston Villa overturned the pre-match favourite, winning 2-0 to finish the game. The model had tipped a home win with a 48% probability, but the prediction was wrong. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the away victory, extending Villa’s three-game winning run after two straight defeats. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 25.5 fouls at 92.1%, Under 23.5 fouls at 83.9%, Over 1.5 at 79.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.3% and Under 21.5 fouls at 71.2%. Newcastle’s home form had been on a two-game winning streak, yet they failed to convert it into a win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Newcastle win✗ Miss
47.9%
Avg Implied 44.1% · @ 2.15
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.53
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa win✓ Hit
25.8%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.26
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Newcastle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.20
2.11
1.11
1.42
1.33
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
1.40
1.40
1.40
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.91
1.22
2.25
1.00
1.55
1.45
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
4.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aston Villa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.03
1.77
0.77
1.41
1.24
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.67
1.50
0.50
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (18)
1.78
1.11
2.40
1.20
1.54
1.08
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.2%
Under 1.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.7%
@ 1.64-2.8%
Under 2.5
45.3%
@ 2.22+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.4%
Under 3.5
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
8.4%
2-0
8.0%
0-0
6.8%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
0-1
5.6%
Newcastle goals ↓
Aston Villa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
5.6%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
1
8.4%
12%
6.7%
2.7%
0.8%
2
8.0%
9.5%
5.7%
2.2%
0.7%
3
4.5%
5.4%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.9%
2.3%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newcastle goals (down), columns = Aston Villa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Newcastle
1.29
Everton
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
West Ham
1.03
Burnley
0.58
Wolves
0.53
Newcastle is 0.42 points worse than Aston Villa in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Tottenham
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
West Ham
1.21
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Burnley
1.00
Wolves
0.71
Newcastle is 0.08 goals worse than Aston Villa in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Manchester United
1.32
Everton
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
West Ham
1.71
Wolves
1.79
Burnley
1.97
Newcastle is 0.16 goals worse than Aston Villa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
West Ham
42%
Burnley
42%
Newcastle is 1.7 percentage points worse than Aston Villa in terms of average possession (52% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Newcastle
For 6.4 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.3 · Against 12.0 · Total 19.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aston Villa
For 4.8 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 14.9 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newcastle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.6
11.0
3.8
4.3
3.1
20.9
22.1
19.3
vs Stronger (10)
12.9
13.7
11.3
3.7
4.8
2.0
21.9
23.0
19.7
vs Similar (36)
10.9
11.0
10.8
3.9
4.3
3.4
20.7
21.9
19.2
vs Weaker (4)
12.0
11.5
12.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
20.5
21.5
19.5
% over line
62%
63%
62%
50%
64%
32%
48%
56%
38%
% under line
38%
37%
38%
50%
36%
68%
52%
44%
62%
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aston Villa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.1
9.4
3.8
3.3
4.2
23.5
24.2
22.9
vs Stronger (6)
9.2
9.0
9.3
3.3
2.7
4.0
20.5
20.0
21.0
vs Similar (32)
9.1
9.3
9.0
4.2
3.8
4.4
23.2
23.3
23.1
vs Weaker (12)
9.8
8.7
11.5
3.2
2.9
3.6
26.4
28.2
23.8
% over line
58%
57%
59%
60%
50%
68%
65%
71%
59%
% under line
42%
43%
41%
40%
50%
32%
35%
29%
41%
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.3
Bournemouth
10.8
Liverpool
10.2
Nottingham Forest
10.0
West Ham
10.0
Chelsea
9.9
Tottenham
9.8
Fulham
9.8
Brentford
9.8
Manchester United
9.7
Everton
9.7
Brighton
9.6
Aston Villa
9.5
Arsenal
9.3
Leeds
9.2
Wolves
9.1
Burnley
9.1
Manchester City
9.0
Sunderland
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Chelsea
4.7
Bournemouth
4.6
Sunderland
4.4
Brighton
4.2
Manchester United
4.2
Nottingham Forest
4.2
Tottenham
4.2
Aston Villa
4.0
Newcastle
4.0
Crystal Palace
4.0
Manchester City
3.8
Wolves
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Everton
3.7
West Ham
3.6
Fulham
3.5
Arsenal
3.4
Burnley
3.3
Liverpool
3.2
Leeds
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
24.3
Bournemouth
24.0
Aston Villa
23.2
West Ham
23.0
Nottingham Forest
22.8
Brighton
22.5
Chelsea
22.4
Tottenham
22.4
Sunderland
22.3
Everton
22.2
Manchester United
22.0
Arsenal
21.6
Leeds
21.2
Burnley
21.1
Newcastle
20.8
Fulham
20.2
Crystal Palace
20.2
Liverpool
20.0
Manchester City
19.8
Brentford
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.1%
Under 9.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.3%
Under 3.5
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
28.8%
Under 21.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Newcastle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.30
0.83
0.17
0.83
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.00
0.40
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.39
0.92
0.25
0.91
0.55
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aston Villa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.92
0.23
0.59
0.65
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.67
1.00
0.60
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.22
0.83
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Newcastle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.90
1.28
0.94
0.58
0.83
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.40
1.00
1.40
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.00
0.83
1.33
0.75
0.64
0.91
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aston Villa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aston Villa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.85
0.54
0.82
0.59
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.44
1.40
0.60
0.92
0.38
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.44
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aston Villa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Newcastle
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anthony Gordon29%
Bruno Guimarães22%
Harvey Barnes21%
William Osula21%
Nick Woltemade20%
Joelinton12%
Yoane Wissa11%
Jacob Murphy9%
Lewis Miley9%
Malick Thiaw8%
Sven Botman5%
Fabian Schär5%
Jacob Ramsey5%
Dan Burn5%
Sandro Tonali4%
Joe Willock3%
Lewis Hall2%
Anthony Elanga2%
Kieran Trippier0%
Emil Krafth0%
Nick Pope0%
Aaron Ramsdale0%
Valentino Livramento0%
Alex Murphy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joelinton38%
Dan Burn28%
Bruno Guimarães22%
Malick Thiaw17%
Kieran Trippier17%
Joe Willock16%
Yoane Wissa15%
Fabian Schär14%
Aaron Ramsdale14%
Sandro Tonali13%
Jacob Ramsey12%
Anthony Gordon9%
Lewis Hall9%
Nick Pope6%
Sven Botman5%
Jacob Murphy4%
Valentino Livramento4%
Harvey Barnes4%
Anthony Elanga2%
Nick Woltemade2%
Emil Krafth0%
William Osula0%
Alex Murphy0%
Lewis Miley0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bruno Guimarães15%
Lewis Miley12%
Dan Burn12%
Sandro Tonali12%
Kieran Trippier11%
Jacob Murphy11%
Anthony Gordon11%
Harvey Barnes11%
Nick Woltemade8%
Joe Willock8%
Jacob Ramsey7%
Joelinton5%
Lewis Hall4%
Valentino Livramento4%
Yoane Wissa4%
William Osula3%
Nick Pope3%
Sven Botman3%
Anthony Elanga2%
Fabian Schär0%
Emil Krafth0%
Aaron Ramsdale0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Alex Murphy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony Gordon24%
Bruno Guimarães15%
Harvey Barnes14%
Jacob Murphy13%
Fabian Schär10%
Joelinton7%
Nick Woltemade6%
William Osula6%
Sandro Tonali4%
Yoane Wissa4%
Sven Botman3%
Joe Willock3%
Kieran Trippier0%
Emil Krafth0%
Nick Pope0%
Dan Burn0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Aaron Ramsdale0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Valentino Livramento0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Alex Murphy0%
Lewis Miley0%
Aston Villa
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jamaldeen Jimoh33%
Ollie Watkins27%
Emiliano Buendía20%
Morgan Rogers20%
Tammy Abraham19%
John McGinn18%
Donyell Malen17%
Ross Barkley13%
Harvey Elliott11%
Evann Guessand10%
Matty Cash6%
Youri Tielemans6%
Leon Bailey5%
Amadou Onana5%
Douglas Luiz5%
Tyrone Mings5%
Ezri Konsa4%
Boubacar Kamara4%
Jadon Sancho3%
Ian Maatsen2%
Victor Lindelöf0%
Lucas Digne0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matty Cash24%
Marco Bizot21%
Boubacar Kamara19%
John McGinn18%
Emiliano Buendía17%
Morgan Rogers16%
Lamare Bogarde16%
Douglas Luiz15%
Lucas Digne14%
Andrés García12%
Amadou Onana11%
Evann Guessand10%
Ollie Watkins7%
Victor Lindelöf7%
Emiliano Martínez7%
Ian Maatsen7%
Youri Tielemans6%
Leon Bailey5%
Tyrone Mings5%
Ross Barkley4%
Pau Torres3%
Ezri Konsa2%
Jadon Sancho0%
Donyell Malen0%
Harvey Elliott0%
Tammy Abraham0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
George Hemmings0%
Alysson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Morgan Rogers20%
Youri Tielemans17%
Emiliano Buendía17%
Lucas Digne16%
John McGinn16%
Boubacar Kamara15%
Ollie Watkins9%
Matty Cash8%
Jadon Sancho8%
Donyell Malen7%
Tammy Abraham6%
Leon Bailey5%
Douglas Luiz5%
Evann Guessand5%
Ross Barkley4%
Victor Lindelöf4%
Emiliano Martínez2%
Ian Maatsen2%
Harvey Elliott0%
Tyrone Mings0%
Ezri Konsa0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Amadou Onana0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
Jamaldeen Jimoh0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamaldeen Jimoh33%
Morgan Rogers24%
Ollie Watkins24%
Emiliano Buendía13%
Harvey Elliott11%
Donyell Malen10%
Evann Guessand10%
Youri Tielemans6%
Ross Barkley4%
Amadou Onana3%
Jadon Sancho3%
John McGinn2%
Ian Maatsen2%
Matty Cash2%
Victor Lindelöf0%
Leon Bailey0%
Boubacar Kamara0%
Lucas Digne0%
Tyrone Mings0%
Tammy Abraham0%
Ezri Konsa0%
Emiliano Martínez0%
Marco Bizot0%
Pau Torres0%
Douglas Luiz0%
Lamare Bogarde0%
George Hemmings0%
Andrés García0%
Alysson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
BUR (28)
€115m
Newcastle's squad is €32m more valuable than Aston Villa's (€568m vs €536m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
BUR (14)
€70m
Newcastle's attack is €14m more valuable than Aston Villa's (€234m vs €220m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
FUL (3)
€28m
BUR (3)
€8m
Newcastle's midfield is €36m less valuable than Aston Villa's (€124m vs €160m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
BUR (11)
€37m
Newcastle's defence is €53m more valuable than Aston Villa's (€210m vs €156m).
England: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arsenal
Manchester City
Manchester United
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Sunderland
Brighton
Brentford
Chelsea
Fulham
Everton
Leeds
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
West Ham
Burnley
Wolves