Newcastle’s recent win over West Brom and Bournemouth’s return from a defeat to Manchester City set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model projecting an average of 3.5 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 10.1% chance. Newcastle, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded, while Bournemouth, on the road, averages 1.43 scored and 1.64 conceded. The model favours a Newcastle win, with a 46% chance, a draw at 24%, and a Bournemouth win at 30%. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1% (edge 6%), Under 7.5 at 97.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.0% (edge 5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.5% (edge 6%), Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.4% (edge 6%), Under 6.5 at 93.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 92.7% (edge 1%), and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 87.4% (edge 3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Newcastle win
46.0%
Avg Implied 44.6% · @ 2.13
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.19
Unibet
2.17
Dafabet
2.17
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.15
Draw
23.7%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.65
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.78
Pinnacle
3.75
Unibet
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
Bournemouth win
30.3%
Avg Implied 29.4% · @ 3.24
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
Marathonbet
3.35
Superbet
3.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Newcastle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.77
1.80
1.80
1.47
1.73
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
2.60
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
1.69
1.38
1.89
1.67
1.43
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
1.25
3.00
2.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Bournemouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bournemouth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.37
1.47
1.27
1.53
1.47
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
1.80
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.44
1.28
1.33
1.08
1.54
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.3%
@ 1.16+6.9%
Under 1.5
12.7%
@ 4.79-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Under
Unibet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.9%
@ 1.56+7.7%
Under 2.5
32.1%
@ 2.36-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.59
Superbet
1.58
Unibet
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.45
Superbet
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.3%
@ 2.41+6.9%
Under 3.5
53.7%
@ 1.57-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.49
Betano
2.47
Pinnacle
2.46
Unibet
2.43
Marathonbet
2.41
Under
1xBet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.59
Marathonbet
1.58
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Both teams to score
Yes
68.5%
@ 1.49+5.7%
No
31.5%
@ 2.51-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
William Hil
1.50
No
Betfair
2.63
Superbet
2.55
10Bet
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Unibet
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%@ 7.04+3.4%
2-1
8.9%@ 8.34+3.3%
1-2
7.1%@ 10.44+2.7%
2-2
6.9%@ 10.69+2.5%
3-1
5.7%@ 13.90+2.4%
2-0
5.7%@ 12.03+1.8%
1-0
5.0%@ 10.13+0.4%
3-2
4.5%@ 17.70+1.8%
Newcastle goals ↓
Bournemouth goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
3.8%
3.7%
1.9%
0.7%
1
5.0%
10%
7.1%
3.7%
1.4%
2
5.7%
8.9%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
3
3.7%
5.7%
4.5%
2.3%
0.9%
4
1.8%
2.8%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newcastle goals (down), columns = Bournemouth goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Newcastle is 0.21 points worse than Bournemouth in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Newcastle is 0.13 goals worse than Bournemouth in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Newcastle is 0.03 goals worse than Bournemouth in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Newcastle is 1.7 percentage points better than Bournemouth in terms of average possession (52% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Newcastle
For 4.1 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 13.6 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bournemouth
For 5.4 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 10.8 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newcastle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.2
11.0
4.3
4.7
3.8
21.8
22.9
20.4
vs Stronger (12)
11.5
13.0
10.0
4.2
4.5
3.8
23.2
24.7
21.8
vs Similar (34)
10.8
10.6
11.1
4.5
4.9
4.0
21.4
22.7
19.8
vs Weaker (4)
12.0
11.5
12.5
3.0
3.5
2.5
20.2
19.5
21.0
% over line
62%
67%
57%
60%
67%
52%
54%
63%
43%
% under line
38%
33%
43%
40%
33%
48%
46%
37%
57%
This opponent (Bournemouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bournemouth
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.4
11.0
4.5
4.4
4.6
23.2
23.1
23.3
vs Stronger (9)
10.8
13.0
9.7
3.8
4.0
3.7
21.0
19.3
21.8
vs Similar (41)
10.7
10.1
11.5
4.7
4.5
4.9
23.7
23.6
23.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
60%
64%
66%
60%
72%
60%
56%
64%
% under line
38%
40%
36%
34%
40%
28%
40%
44%
36%
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Brighton
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Everton
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Sunderland
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.9
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Leeds
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Everton
21.6
Manchester United
21.5
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
20.0
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
64.5%
@ 1.47+1.8%
Under 9.5
35.5%
@ 2.48-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.57
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
Under
Unibet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.57
1xBet
2.55
Betano
2.50
Superbet
2.40
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
66.3%
@ 1.47+3.4%
Under 3.5
33.7%
@ 2.50-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.74
Betano
2.45
Superbet
2.42
Unibet
2.40
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
60.7%
Under 21.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Newcastle or Draw
69.7%
Avg Implied 70.4% · @ 1.34
Edge
-0.7%
46%
24%
30%
covers Newcastle + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Newcastle or Bournemouth
76.3%
Avg Implied 74.4% · @ 1.27
Edge
+1.9%
46%
24%
30%
covers Newcastle + Bournemouth
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Bournemouth
54.0%
Avg Implied 55.2% · @ 1.71
Edge
-1.2%
46%
24%
30%
covers Draw + Bournemouth
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.72
SBO
1.71
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Newcastle over/under 0.5
Over
85.6%
@ 1.15+4.5%
Under
14.4%
@ 4.94-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.00
Superbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Newcastle over/under 1.5
Over
57.8%
@ 1.79+5.4%
Under
42.2%
@ 1.97-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathonbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Newcastle over/under 2.5
Over
30.7%
@ 3.50+4.1%
Under
69.3%
@ 1.27-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.61
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.29
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Newcastle over/under 3.5
Over
13.2%
@ 7.50+0.8%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.07-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Bournemouth over/under 0.5
Over
78.9%
@ 1.25+4.6%
Under
21.1%
@ 3.63-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.86
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Bournemouth over/under 1.5
Over
46.1%
@ 2.28+5.1%
Under
53.9%
@ 1.59-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.37
1xBet
2.36
Marathonbet
2.33
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Bournemouth over/under 2.5
Over
20.6%
@ 5.18+2.5%
Under
79.4%
@ 1.14-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.35
BetVictor
5.25
Under
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Bournemouth over/under 3.5
Over
7.3%
@ 11.78-0.7%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.03+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
12.25
1xBet
12.20
Superbet
12.00
Unibet
11.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Newcastle, so a minus line means Newcastle give that many goals of a start and Bournemouth receive them. At -1, Newcastle must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Newcastle win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Newcastle)
Newcastle -2
12.3%
@ 7.67+0.5%
Draw -2
14.1%
@ 5.96-1.0%
Bournemouth +2
73.6%
@ 1.23+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Superbet
7.50
Draw
Marathonbet
6.10
Superbet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Away
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Handicap -1 (Newcastle)
Newcastle -1
26.4%
@ 3.69+1.8%
Draw -1
19.6%
@ 4.01-2.9%
Bournemouth +1
54.0%
@ 1.71+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Superbet
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.10
Unibet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Away
Marathonbet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.67
Handicap +1 (Newcastle)
Newcastle +1
69.7%
@ 1.34+1.8%
Draw +1
15.6%
@ 5.08-2.3%
Bournemouth -1
14.7%
@ 6.38+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.20
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Away
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.25
Superbet
6.20
10Bet
6.00
Handicap +2 (Newcastle)
Newcastle +2
85.3%
@ 1.09+3.2%
Draw +2
9.1%
@ 8.19-1.8%
Bournemouth -2
5.7%
@ 12.70-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
12.00
Marathonbet
6.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Newcastle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.77
1.00
0.60
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.30
0.50
0.25
0.83
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.56
1.11
0.78
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.25
1.50
0.50
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Bournemouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bournemouth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.60
0.47
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.60
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.56
0.42
0.42
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.0%
@ 1.28+1.8%
Under 0.5
25.0%
@ 3.51-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.80
Superbet
3.65
William Hil
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.8%
@ 2.29-0.2%
Under 1.5
59.2%
@ 1.59+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Pinnacle
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Superbet
2.30
Under
Superbet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.61
William Hil
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.2%
@ 5.24-1.6%
Under 2.5
83.8%
@ 1.14+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.30
Under
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.9%
@ 1.74+2.2%
Under
44.1%
@ 2.01-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathonbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Superbet
2.02
Unibet
2.00
Newcastle over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.7%
@ 4.57+0.4%
Under
79.3%
@ 1.16-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.85
Betano
4.60
10Bet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Newcastle over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.1%
@ 11.62-4.0%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bournemouth over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.5%
@ 2.01-0.8%
Under
54.5%
@ 1.73+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathonbet
2.03
Superbet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.73
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Bournemouth over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.0%
@ 6.11-3.1%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.09+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.70
1xBet
6.40
Betano
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Bournemouth over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
@ 16.00-4.0%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Newcastle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.00
0.80
1.20
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.30
0.50
1.75
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.81
0.78
0.89
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Bournemouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bournemouth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.87
0.80
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.72
0.92
0.67
0.92
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.8%
@ 1.16+2.8%
Under 0.5
16.2%
@ 4.95-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Under
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
Superbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.85
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.8%
@ 1.78-1.1%
Under 1.5
48.2%
@ 2.00+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Under
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.6%
@ 3.38-5.1%
Under 2.5
77.4%
@ 1.29+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.50
William Hil
3.50
Unibet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.36
Under
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.9%
@ 1.50+0.8%
Under
37.1%
@ 2.46-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Under
1xBet
2.48
Betano
2.47
Superbet
2.42
Newcastle over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.3%
@ 3.34-4.5%
Under
76.7%
@ 1.29+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.40
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Under
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Newcastle over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.9%
@ 8.43-5.1%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.04+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
Superbet
8.80
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Bournemouth over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.5%
@ 1.70-3.1%
Under
48.5%
@ 2.04+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Under
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Bournemouth over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.7%
@ 4.48-4.0%
Under
83.3%
@ 1.17+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Bournemouth over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.5%
@ 11.38-3.8%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.02+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
Under 7.5
97.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+1.2%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+5.1%
Under 6.5
93.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
-0.4%
Away under 3.5 goals
92.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
+0.7%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.0%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
+3.1%
Over 1.5
87.3%
1.16
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+6.9%
Home under 3.5 goals
86.8%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.06
-0.8%
Under 5.5
85.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-2.4%
Home over 0.5 goals
85.6%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
+4.5%
Home +2 handicap
85.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.06
+3.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.8%
1.16
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.15
+2.8%
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.8%
1.14
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
+1.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.3%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
+4.0%
Over 2.5 cards
83.0%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.17
-
-
-
+6.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
79.4%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-2.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.3%
1.16
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-0.4%
Away over 0.5 goals
78.9%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+4.6%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.4%
1.29
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
+5.1%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.7%
1.29
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
+4.5%
Home or Away
76.3%
1.27
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+1.9%
Over 19.5 fouls
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
75.6%
1.26
Superbet
1.33
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
+3.0%
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.0%
1.28
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
+1.8%
Away +2 handicap
73.6%
1.23
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+0.5%
Under 4.5
72.6%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
-5.2%
Under 25.5 fouls
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Newcastle
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anthony Elanga67%
Joe Willock33%
Harvey Barnes33%
Yoane Wissa33%
Amar Dedić0%
Jacob Murphy0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Sven Botman0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Lewis Miley0%
Sean Steur0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jacob Ramsey67%
Jacob Murphy33%
Yoane Wissa33%
Sven Botman33%
Lewis Miley33%
Sean Steur33%
Joe Willock0%
Amar Dedić0%
Harvey Barnes0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Amar Dedić67%
Yoane Wissa33%
Malick Thiaw33%
Joe Willock0%
Harvey Barnes0%
Jacob Murphy0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Sven Botman0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Lewis Hall0%
Lewis Miley0%
Sean Steur0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Willock33%
Harvey Barnes33%
Yoane Wissa33%
Amar Dedić0%
Jacob Murphy0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Sven Botman0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Lewis Miley0%
Sean Steur0%
Bournemouth · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Antoine Semenyo38%
Eli Junior Kroupi34%
Rayan33%
Marcus Tavernier23%
Evanilson16%
Alex Scott10%
Justin Kluivert10%
Amine Adli9%
Tyler Adams8%
Ryan Christie7%
David Brooks6%
Enes Ünal4%
Álex Jiménez3%
Adrien Truffert3%
Marcos Senesi0%
Adam Smith0%
Lewis Cook0%
James Hill0%
Bafodé Diakité0%
Đorđe Petrović0%
Ben Gannon-Doak0%
Alex Tóth0%
Julio Soler0%
Veljko Milosavljević0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Álex Jiménez31%
Tyler Adams31%
Antoine Semenyo29%
Justin Kluivert24%
Marcos Senesi21%
Marcus Tavernier20%
Julio Soler20%
David Brooks18%
James Hill16%
Alex Scott15%
Eli Junior Kroupi14%
Adam Smith13%
Adrien Truffert13%
Ryan Christie11%
Alex Tóth11%
Lewis Cook11%
Đorđe Petrović10%
Amine Adli9%
Rayan7%
Bafodé Diakité5%
Enes Ünal4%
Evanilson3%
Ben Gannon-Doak0%
Veljko Milosavljević0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Antoine Semenyo14%
Rayan13%
Marcos Senesi13%
Adrien Truffert13%
Marcus Tavernier11%
Ben Gannon-Doak11%
James Hill10%
David Brooks9%
Adam Smith9%
Tyler Adams8%
Lewis Cook5%
Evanilson5%
Álex Jiménez3%
Amine Adli3%
Alex Scott3%
Justin Kluivert0%
Ryan Christie0%
Bafodé Diakité0%
Enes Ünal0%
Đorđe Petrović0%
Alex Tóth0%
Julio Soler0%
Eli Junior Kroupi0%
Veljko Milosavljević0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Antoine Semenyo29%
Evanilson21%
Marcus Tavernier20%
David Brooks12%
Eli Junior Kroupi9%
Rayan7%
Alex Scott5%
James Hill3%
Justin Kluivert0%
Ryan Christie0%
Tyler Adams0%
Marcos Senesi0%
Adam Smith0%
Lewis Cook0%
Bafodé Diakité0%
Enes Ünal0%
Đorđe Petrović0%
Amine Adli0%
Adrien Truffert0%
Álex Jiménez0%
Ben Gannon-Doak0%
Alex Tóth0%
Julio Soler0%
Veljko Milosavljević0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Newcastle's squad is €5m less valuable than Bournemouth's (€568m vs €573m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Newcastle's attack is €51m less valuable than Bournemouth's (€234m vs €285m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Newcastle's midfield is €18m more valuable than Bournemouth's (€124m vs €106m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Newcastle's defence is €28m more valuable than Bournemouth's (€210m vs €182m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
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Hull
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