Newcastle’s recent draw against Liverpool and Manchester City’s win over Bournemouth set the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The model projects 3.4 goals on average, with the most likely total being three goals, a 22 % chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.2 % probability, even though the overall model favours an away win. The odds are 26 % for a home win, 23 % for a draw, and 51 % for an away win, making Manchester City the clear favourite.
Newcastle, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Manchester City, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. These figures support the expectation of a balanced attack and a modest defensive display.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.6 %), Under 6.5 (94.1 %), Away +2 handicap (88.3 %), Under 5.5 (86.9 %), Away over 0.5 goals (86.6 %), Over 1.5 (86.4 %), and Away under 3.5 goals (85.5 %). Each pick carries its own probability, reflecting the anticipated flow of the match.
The final score was 1-3, an away win that matched the model’s prediction. The favourite, Manchester City, was chosen with a 51 % probability and the call was correct. The model’s selections performed strongly: Under 7.5 hit with 97.6 %, Home under 3.5 goals with 94.6 %, Under 6.5 with 94.1 %, Away +2 handicap with 88.3 %, Under 5.5 with 86.9 %, Away over 0.5 goals with 86.6 %, Over 1.5 with 86.4 %, and Away under 3.5 goals with 85.5 %. Newcastle’s recent form, a draw after a win, was eclipsed by Manchester City’s winning run, and the match delivered on the model’s expectations.
Newcastle| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 1.63 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 1.73 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.29 | 1.86 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (20) | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.09 | 1.91 | 2.11 | 1.44 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.67 | 0.67 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-13pp vs league) | |||||
Manchester City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.33 | 0.97 | 2.72 | 0.72 | 1.75 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (4) | 2.00 | 0.75 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (26) | 2.38 | 1.00 | 2.81 | 0.75 | 1.70 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
| Manchester City goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| 1 | 3.7% | 10% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 3.2% |
| 2 | 3.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.2% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
Newcastle
Manchester City
Newcastle| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.5 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 21.3 | 22.6 | 19.9 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 12.2 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 21.4 | 21.9 | 20.8 |
| vs Similar (33) | 11.2 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 21.6 | 23.1 | 19.9 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 11.8 | 13.7 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 19.4 | 21.0 | 17.0 |
| % over line | 66% | 67% | 65% | 56% | 67% | 43% | 48% | 56% | 39% |
| % under line | 34% | 33% | 35% | 44% | 33% | 57% | 52% | 44% | 61% |
Manchester City| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.1 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 20.2 | 20.1 | 20.3 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 10.5 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 23.8 | 20.7 | 27.0 |
| vs Weaker (44) | 8.9 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 19.7 | 20.0 | 19.4 |
| % over line | 44% | 48% | 40% | 52% | 48% | 56% | 36% | 40% | 32% |
| % under line | 56% | 52% | 60% | 48% | 52% | 44% | 64% | 60% | 68% |
Newcastle| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.70 | 0.87 | 0.60 | 1.07 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.71 | 1.14 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 1.22 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 0.33 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
Manchester City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 0.23 | 1.83 | 0.17 | 0.75 | 0.33 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (4) | 1.25 | 0.25 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (26) | 1.42 | 0.23 | 1.88 | 0.19 | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| Clean sheet % | 80% (+57pp vs league) | |||||
Newcastle| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.93 | 1.13 | 1.07 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.57 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.27 | 1.09 | 0.89 | 1.11 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Manchester City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.73 | 0.89 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (4) | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (26) | 0.96 | 0.77 | 0.94 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 97.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 94.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 94.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away +2 handicap | 88.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 | 86.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 86.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 86.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 85.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 83.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 82.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 8.5 corners | 79.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 77.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home or Away | 76.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Draw or Away | 74.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away +1 handicap | 74.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 | 74.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 71.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 04/02/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 13/01/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/11/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/02/25 | A | 4-0 | |
| 28/09/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 13/01/24 | H | 2-3 | |
| 19/08/23 | A | 1-0 |
Newcastle| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 24/02/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/02/26 | A | 1-6 | |
| 14/02/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 10/02/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 07/02/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 04/02/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 31/01/26 | A | 4-1 |
Manchester City| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 14/02/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 11/02/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 08/02/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 04/02/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 01/02/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 28/01/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 24/01/26 | H | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 85 | 68% | 2.2 | 71 | 27 | +44 | 2.6 | 71% | 53% | 24% | 9.1 | 42% | 3.2 | 47% | 21.3 | 47% | 1280 | 555 | 225 | 500 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 56% |
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 78 | 61% | 2.1 | 77 | 35 | +42 | 2.9 | 87% | 63% | 21% | 10.3 | 58% | 3.9 | 63% | 20.9 | 42% | 1243 | 542 | 166 | 535 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 60% |
| 3 | Manchester United | 38 | 71 | 53% | 1.9 | 69 | 50 | +19 | 3.1 | 84% | 63% | 37% | 9.7 | 53% | 3.8 | 58% | 21.2 | 47% | 764 | 362 | 102 | 300 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 65 | 50% | 1.7 | 56 | 49 | +7 | 2.8 | 74% | 53% | 29% | 10.2 | 68% | 3.9 | 61% | 23.0 | 63% | 583 | 270 | 168 | 146 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 53% |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 60 | 45% | 1.6 | 63 | 53 | +10 | 3.1 | 84% | 61% | 29% | 10.5 | 55% | 3.6 | 50% | 20.7 | 37% | 940 | 490 | 201 | 248 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 59% |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 38 | 57 | 34% | 1.5 | 58 | 54 | +4 | 2.9 | 76% | 55% | 42% | 10.9 | 63% | 4.3 | 63% | 22.5 | 53% | 658 | 353 | 106 | 199 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 7 | Sunderland | 38 | 54 | 37% | 1.4 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 2.4 | 71% | 45% | 18% | 9.0 | 45% | 4.1 | 55% | 22.1 | 58% | 415 | 168 | 108 | 140 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 8 | Brighton | 38 | 53 | 37% | 1.4 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 2.6 | 82% | 50% | 18% | 9.7 | 58% | 4.3 | 63% | 22.0 | 55% | 592 | 191 | 176 | 225 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 53 | 37% | 1.4 | 55 | 52 | +3 | 2.8 | 82% | 53% | 37% | 10.2 | 63% | 3.7 | 53% | 19.6 | 34% | 482 | 208 | 89 | 186 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 47% |
| 10 | Chelsea | 38 | 52 | 37% | 1.4 | 58 | 52 | +6 | 2.9 | 87% | 66% | 32% | 10.4 | 68% | 4.7 | 71% | 23.4 | 68% | 1114 | 418 | 267 | 430 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 57% |
| 11 | Fulham | 38 | 52 | 39% | 1.4 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 2.6 | 71% | 50% | 24% | 10.5 | 66% | 3.8 | 58% | 20.8 | 39% | 356 | 188 | 38 | 131 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 12 | Newcastle | 38 | 49 | 37% | 1.3 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 2.8 | 76% | 63% | 34% | 11.0 | 61% | 4.2 | 61% | 22.1 | 53% | 696 | 249 | 249 | 198 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 13 | Everton | 38 | 49 | 34% | 1.3 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 2.6 | 76% | 45% | 21% | 9.4 | 42% | 3.7 | 47% | 21.7 | 58% | 443 | 194 | 126 | 123 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 14 | Leeds | 38 | 47 | 29% | 1.2 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 2.8 | 74% | 55% | 37% | 9.5 | 53% | 3.4 | 42% | 21.7 | 47% | 373 | 142 | 98 | 134 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 45 | 29% | 1.2 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 2.4 | 71% | 55% | 21% | 9.4 | 47% | 3.7 | 63% | 20.2 | 37% | 553 | 255 | 93 | 205 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 44 | 29% | 1.2 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 2.6 | 82% | 53% | 26% | 10.1 | 58% | 3.3 | 42% | 22.2 | 53% | 621 | 301 | 117 | 203 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 17 | Tottenham | 38 | 41 | 26% | 1.1 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 2.8 | 82% | 63% | 26% | 10.2 | 50% | 4.7 | 71% | 22.3 | 58% | 713 | 250 | 177 | 286 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 18 | West Ham | 38 | 39 | 26% | 1.0 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 2.9 | 87% | 61% | 29% | 11.0 | 66% | 3.8 | 55% | 21.7 | 47% | 449 | 174 | 112 | 164 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 42% |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 22 | 11% | 0.6 | 38 | 75 | -37 | 3.0 | 84% | 50% | 39% | 9.6 | 53% | 2.9 | 39% | 19.5 | 37% | 233 | 100 | 48 | 85 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 42% |
| 20 | Wolves | 38 | 20 | 8% | 0.5 | 27 | 68 | -41 | 2.5 | 79% | 45% | 24% | 9.4 | 58% | 3.8 | 58% | 23.8 | 66% | 311 | 86 | 111 | 115 | 0.7 | 1.8 | - |