Newcastle’s recent five matches show a mixed bag of wins, draws and losses, but a two-game winning streak keeps their confidence alive. Tottenham, meanwhile, are coming off a defeat and have struggled to find consistency. The model finds the game finely balanced, with a 36% chance of a Newcastle win, a 30% chance of a draw and a 34% chance of a Tottenham win. The most likely outcome is a home victory, and the expected total goals is 2.4, centring on a 2-goal total. The single scoreline the model favours is 1-1, with a 14.3% probability. Newcastle typically scores 1.57 goals and concedes 2.0 at home against teams of similar strength, while Tottenham averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.62 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 95.8%, Under 25.5 fouls at 94.0%, Under 4.5 cards at 89.1%, Under 23.5 fouls at 87.2%, Under 3.5 at 77.6%, Under 21.5 fouls at 75.8%, Under 3.5 cards at 75.7% and Over 8.5 corners at 73.1%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Newcastle, failed to deliver as the match ended 2-3 in favour of Tottenham, extending their win streak. The model had picked a home win with a 36% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 2-3 confirmed the away victory. The model’s selections were mixed: Under 5.5 cards (95.8%) missed, Under 25.5 fouls (94.0%) hit, Under 4.5 cards (89.1%) missed, Under 23.5 fouls (87.2%) hit, Under 3.5 (77.6%) missed, Under 21.5 fouls (75.8%) hit, Under 3.5 cards (75.7%) missed, and Over 8.5 corners (73.1%) hit. Newcastle’s recent form shows a two-game winning run, while Tottenham come off a defeat.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Newcastle winâś— Miss
35.5%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.56
Edge
+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.61
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tottenham winâś“ Hit
34.3%
Avg Implied 46.4% · @ 2.07
Edge
-12.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Newcastle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.80
1.57
1.93
0.94
1.69
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.50
1.50
3.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (16)
1.19
1.94
1.57
2.00
0.89
1.89
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
1.30
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.20
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tottenham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.33
1.81
1.00
1.36
1.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.65
1.44
1.67
1.12
1.62
vs Weaker (9)
2.56
0.44
2.50
0.17
2.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.7%
Under 1.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.4%
@ 1.75-11.4%
Under 2.5
56.6%
@ 2.12+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.4%
Under 3.5
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.3%
1-0
9.6%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
6.4%
Newcastle goals ↓
Tottenham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
9.4%
6.4%
2.5%
0.8%
1
9.6%
14%
7.8%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.7%
7.9%
4.7%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.7%
3.2%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newcastle goals (down), columns = Tottenham goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Manchester City
2.45
Liverpool
2.42
Chelsea
1.95
Tottenham
1.87
Arsenal
1.82
Manchester United
1.53
West Ham
1.47
Leicester
1.37
Brighton
1.34
Wolves
1.34
Newcastle
1.29
Crystal Palace
1.26
Brentford
1.21
Aston Villa
1.18
Southampton
1.05
Everton
1.03
Leeds
1.00
Burnley
0.92
Watford
0.61
Norwich
0.58
Newcastle is 0.58 points worse than Tottenham in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.61
Liverpool
2.47
Chelsea
2.00
Tottenham
1.82
Leicester
1.63
Arsenal
1.61
West Ham
1.58
Manchester United
1.50
Aston Villa
1.37
Crystal Palace
1.32
Brentford
1.26
Newcastle
1.16
Southampton
1.13
Everton
1.13
Brighton
1.11
Leeds
1.11
Wolves
1.00
Watford
0.89
Burnley
0.89
Norwich
0.61
Newcastle is 0.66 goals worse than Tottenham in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liverpool
0.68
Manchester City
0.68
Chelsea
0.87
Tottenham
1.05
Wolves
1.13
Brighton
1.16
Crystal Palace
1.21
Arsenal
1.26
West Ham
1.34
Burnley
1.39
Aston Villa
1.42
Brentford
1.47
Manchester United
1.50
Leicester
1.55
Newcastle
1.63
Everton
1.74
Southampton
1.76
Watford
2.03
Leeds
2.08
Norwich
2.21
Newcastle is 0.58 goals worse than Tottenham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.05).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
68%
Liverpool
63%
Chelsea
62%
Brighton
55%
Arsenal
53%
Manchester United
52%
Tottenham
52%
Leeds
52%
Leicester
52%
Crystal Palace
51%
West Ham
48%
Southampton
47%
Aston Villa
46%
Brentford
44%
Norwich
43%
Watford
41%
Newcastle
40%
Burnley
40%
Everton
39%
Newcastle is 12.6 percentage points worse than Tottenham in terms of average possession (40% vs 52%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Newcastle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.93
0.79
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.56
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.22
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.20
0.80
0.20
0.80
0.20
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tottenham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.81
0.38
0.79
0.86
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.65
0.78
0.56
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.22
1.00
0.17
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tottenham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tottenham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tottenham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Newcastle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.07
0.64
1.14
0.56
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.94
0.57
1.00
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
1.10
0.80
1.20
0.40
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tottenham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
1.00
0.62
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.53
1.00
0.67
1.11
0.38
0.88
vs Weaker (9)
1.44
0.22
1.50
0.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tottenham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tottenham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tottenham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 3.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 21.5 fouls
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 3.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 8.5 corners
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Newcastle · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anthony Elanga67%
Joe Willock33%
Harvey Barnes33%
Yoane Wissa33%
Amar Dedić0%
Jacob Murphy0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Sven Botman0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Lewis Miley0%
Sean Steur0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jacob Ramsey67%
Jacob Murphy33%
Yoane Wissa33%
Sven Botman33%
Lewis Miley33%
Sean Steur33%
Joe Willock0%
Amar Dedić0%
Harvey Barnes0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Amar Dedić67%
Yoane Wissa33%
Malick Thiaw33%
Joe Willock0%
Harvey Barnes0%
Jacob Murphy0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Sven Botman0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Lewis Hall0%
Lewis Miley0%
Sean Steur0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Willock33%
Harvey Barnes33%
Yoane Wissa33%
Amar Dedić0%
Jacob Murphy0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Sven Botman0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Lewis Miley0%
Sean Steur0%
Tottenham · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dominic Solanke33%
Mikey Moore33%
Rodrigo Bentancur0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
AntonĂn KinskĂ˝0%
Mathys Tel0%
Archie Gray0%
Mateus Fernandes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rodrigo Bentancur0%
Dominic Solanke0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
AntonĂn KinskĂ˝0%
Mathys Tel0%
Archie Gray0%
Mateus Fernandes0%
Mikey Moore0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rodrigo Bentancur33%
Archie Gray33%
Mateus Fernandes33%
Mikey Moore33%
Dominic Solanke0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
AntonĂn KinskĂ˝0%
Mathys Tel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathys Tel33%
Mikey Moore33%
Rodrigo Bentancur0%
Dominic Solanke0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
AntonĂn KinskĂ˝0%
Archie Gray0%
Mateus Fernandes0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
BUR (28)
€115m
NOR (34)
€107m
WAT (22)
€88m
LEI (22)
€69m
Newcastle's squad is €353m less valuable than Tottenham's (€568m vs €920m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
NOR (10)
€46m
WAT (6)
€28m
LEI (7)
€20m
Newcastle's attack is €16m less valuable than Tottenham's (€234m vs €250m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
NOR (11)
€31m
LEI (4)
€13m
BUR (3)
€8m
Newcastle's midfield is €158m less valuable than Tottenham's (€124m vs €282m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
EVE (10)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
NOR (13)
€29m
WAT (10)
€22m
Newcastle's defence is €178m less valuable than Tottenham's (€210m vs €388m).
England: Premier League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Liverpool
Chelsea
Arsenal
Manchester United
West Ham
Leicester
Brighton
Wolves
Crystal Palace
Brentford
Aston Villa
Southampton
Everton
Leeds
Burnley
Watford
Norwich