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Newcastle vs West Ham Result & Analysis

Date: 17/05/2026
Time: 17:30
Final 3-1
Newcastle
Newcastle
Vs
49%
27%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
West Ham
West Ham
England: Premier League
Referee: J Gillett
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Newcastle a 49% win probability against West Ham in the England: Premier League on 2026-05-17, with 27% for the draw and 25% for West Ham. The model estimates around 2.8 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 25.5 fouls (85%), Under 5.5 cards (80%), Over 1.5 (78%), Over 2.5 cards (74%).

Results analysis

Newcastle finished 3-1 against West Ham (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 49% home win, 27% draw and 25% away win. Picks that landed: Under 25.5 fouls (85%), Under 5.5 cards (80%), Over 1.5 (78%), Over 2.5 cards (74%), Under 23.5 fouls (74%), Over 8.5 corners (72%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Newcastle win✓ Hit
48.8%
Avg Implied 45.7% · @ 2.05
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 24.6% · @ 3.81
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
West Ham win✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied 29.7% · @ 3.15
Edge
-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

NewcastleNewcastle

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-721W11D10W27L12L12L12L01L31W11DH·MAN04/03H·BAR10/03A·CHE14/03A·BAR18/03H·SUN22/03A·CRY12/04H·BOU18/04A·ARS25/04H·BRI02/05A·NOT10/05
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.672.001.671.401.67
vs Stronger (9)1.332.002.001.001.002.50
vs Similar (17)1.881.592.001.801.711.29
vs Weaker (4)1.751.252.002.001.500.50
Clean sheet %13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (West Ham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

West HamWest Ham

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D25L10W11D02L40W00D21W03L01LH·BOU21/02A·LIV28/02A·FUL04/03H·MAN14/03A·AST22/03H·WOL10/04A·CRY20/04H·EVE25/04A·BRE02/05H·ARS10/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.601.471.330.931.87
vs Stronger (11)0.822.180.801.600.832.67
vs Similar (17)1.351.241.561.331.121.12
vs Weaker (2)2.001.504.000.000.003.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.7%
@ 1.52-9.1%
Under 2.5
47.3%
@ 2.46+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.5%
Under 3.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.8%
No
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
9.1%
2-0
8.5%
0-0
7.3%
1-2
6.5%
0-1
5.8%
2-2
5.4%
Newcastle goals ↓
West Ham goals →
01234
07.3%5.8%3.9%1.5%0.4%
19.1%13%6.5%2.4%0.7%
28.5%9.6%5.4%2.0%0.6%
34.7%5.3%3.0%1.1%0.3%
42.0%2.2%1.2%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newcastle goals (down), columns = West Ham goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Newcastle
1.29
Everton
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
West Ham
1.03
Burnley
0.58
Wolves
0.53
Newcastle is 0.26 points better than West Ham in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.03).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Tottenham
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
West Ham
1.21
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Burnley
1.00
Wolves
0.71
Newcastle is 0.18 goals better than West Ham in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.21).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Manchester United
1.32
Everton
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
West Ham
1.71
Wolves
1.79
Burnley
1.97
Newcastle is 0.26 goals better than West Ham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.71).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
West Ham
42%
Burnley
42%
Newcastle is 9.9 percentage points better than West Ham in terms of average possession (52% vs 42%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

NewcastleNewcastle

For 3.4 · Against 5.1 · Total 8.5

🚩 Corners

1401221027234295261894243129561489136A·NOTH·BRIA·ARSH·BOUA·CRYH·SUNA·BARA·CHEH·BARH·MAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.5

🟨 Cards

702332224316312221332646374436A·NOTH·BRIA·ARSH·BOUA·CRYH·SUNA·BARA·CHEH·BARH·MAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 13.2 · Total 24.6

⚠️ Fouls

31011161012101311121217819139109149151627222323292722192331A·NOTH·BRIA·ARSH·BOUA·CRYH·SUNA·BARA·CHEH·BARH·MAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

West HamWest Ham

For 5.0 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.8

🚩 Corners

16043623464526611557510957871071216121514H·ARSA·BREH·EVEA·CRYH·WOLA·ASTH·MANA·FULA·LIVH·BOU
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.2

🟨 Cards

7034313412221224222117473414642H·ARSA·BREH·EVEA·CRYH·WOLA·ASTH·MANA·FULA·LIVH·BOU
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 9.6 · Total 20.8

⚠️ Fouls

260141212891112131177314512141112101126202025181019262321H·ARSA·BREH·EVEA·CRYH·WOLA·ASTH·MANA·FULA·LIVH·BOU
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

NewcastleNewcastle

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.411.910.84.14.53.721.623.120.2
vs Stronger (15)11.712.211.04.64.94.321.522.620.1
vs Similar (28)10.911.010.73.94.13.722.423.621.3
vs Weaker (7)12.714.011.03.95.02.319.122.514.7
% over line62%68%56%58%68%48%52%60%44%
% under line38%32%44%42%32%52%48%40%56%
This opponent (West Ham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

West HamWest Ham

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.310.210.43.63.73.622.122.222.0
vs Stronger (15)10.410.010.73.13.23.022.422.222.6
vs Similar (31)10.610.710.53.93.93.921.822.121.4
vs Weaker (4)7.57.08.03.53.53.523.522.524.5
% over line58%52%64%50%48%52%50%48%52%
% under line42%48%36%50%52%48%50%52%48%
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.4
Bournemouth
10.6
Fulham
10.5
Liverpool
10.4
West Ham
10.3
Brentford
10.0
Tottenham
10.0
Nottingham Forest
10.0
Chelsea
10.0
Manchester City
10.0
Manchester United
9.8
Everton
9.8
Aston Villa
9.5
Brighton
9.5
Burnley
9.4
Leeds
9.2
Wolves
9.2
Arsenal
9.0
Sunderland
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.9

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Chelsea
4.6
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.4
Manchester United
4.3
Brighton
4.3
Sunderland
4.2
Newcastle
4.1
Crystal Palace
3.9
Brentford
3.8
Wolves
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.7
West Ham
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Everton
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Liverpool
3.4
Nottingham Forest
3.4
Arsenal
3.2
Burnley
3.2

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Wolves
24.0
Aston Villa
23.8
Nottingham Forest
23.5
Bournemouth
23.5
Chelsea
23.1
Tottenham
22.5
Sunderland
22.3
West Ham
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Manchester United
21.9
Arsenal
21.9
Newcastle
21.6
Leeds
21.5
Everton
21.3
Crystal Palace
21.1
Burnley
20.8
Liverpool
20.7
Manchester City
20.6
Fulham
20.5
Brentford
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.4%
Under 9.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.2%
Under 3.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
41.7%
Under 21.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

No half-time data for this fixture yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
West Ham over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
West Ham over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
West Ham over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 25.5 fouls85.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards80.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.577.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards74.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls73.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners72.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (26)
€1280m
MC (27)
€1243m
CHE (29)
€1114m
LIV (28)
€940m
MU (29)
€764m
TOT (32)
€713m
NEW (29)
€696m
BOU (31)
€658m
NFO (32)
€621m
BHA (32)
€592m
AVL (28)
€583m
CRY (30)
€553m
BRE (29)
€482m
WHU (34)
€449m
EVE (26)
€443m
SUN (31)
€415m
LEE (28)
€373m
FUL (25)
€356m
WOL (29)
€311m
BUR (33)
€233m
Newcastle's squad is €247m more valuable than West Ham's (€696m vs €449m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (11)
€555m
MC (7)
€542m
LIV (8)
€490m
CHE (8)
€418m
MU (10)
€362m
BOU (12)
€353m
NFO (12)
€301m
AVL (11)
€270m
CRY (12)
€255m
TOT (11)
€250m
NEW (8)
€249m
BRE (9)
€208m
EVE (8)
€194m
BHA (11)
€191m
FUL (11)
€188m
WHU (12)
€174m
SUN (13)
€168m
LEE (10)
€142m
BUR (14)
€100m
WOL (10)
€86m
Newcastle's attack is €76m more valuable than West Ham's (€249m vs €174m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (5)
€267m
NEW (6)
€249m
ARS (4)
€225m
LIV (6)
€201m
TOT (7)
€177m
BHA (8)
€176m
AVL (7)
€168m
MC (6)
€166m
EVE (7)
€126m
NFO (4)
€117m
WHU (8)
€112m
WOL (5)
€111m
SUN (5)
€108m
BOU (5)
€106m
MU (4)
€102m
LEE (6)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
BRE (7)
€89m
BUR (5)
€48m
FUL (4)
€38m
Newcastle's midfield is €138m more valuable than West Ham's (€249m vs €112m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (14)
€535m
ARS (11)
€500m
CHE (16)
€430m
MU (15)
€300m
TOT (14)
€286m
LIV (14)
€248m
BHA (13)
€225m
CRY (13)
€205m
NFO (16)
€203m
BOU (14)
€199m
NEW (15)
€198m
BRE (13)
€186m
WHU (14)
€164m
AVL (10)
€146m
SUN (13)
€140m
LEE (12)
€134m
FUL (10)
€131m
EVE (11)
€123m
WOL (14)
€115m
BUR (14)
€85m
Newcastle's defence is €34m more valuable than West Ham's (€198m vs €164m).

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Newcastle vs West Ham · H/A from NEW
DateH/AGameScore
02/11/25AWest Ham Vs NEW3-1
10/03/25AWest Ham Vs NEW0-1
25/11/24HNEW Vs West Ham0-2
30/03/24HNEW Vs West Ham4-3
08/10/23AWest Ham Vs NEW2-2
05/04/23AWest Ham Vs NEW1-5
04/02/23HNEW Vs West Ham1-1
19/02/22AWest Ham Vs NEW1-1

NewcastleNewcastle

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26ANottingham Forest Vs NEW1-1
02/05/26HNEW Vs Brighton3-1
25/04/26AArsenal Vs NEW1-0
18/04/26HNEW Vs Bournemouth1-2
12/04/26ACrystal Palace Vs NEW2-1
22/03/26HNEW Vs Sunderland1-2
18/03/26ABarcelona Vs NEW7-2
14/03/26AChelsea Vs NEW0-1
10/03/26HNEW Vs Barcelona1-1
04/03/26HNEW Vs Manchester United2-1

West HamWest Ham

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26HWHU Vs Arsenal0-1
02/05/26ABrentford Vs WHU3-0
25/04/26HWHU Vs Everton2-1
20/04/26ACrystal Palace Vs WHU0-0
10/04/26HWHU Vs Wolves4-0
22/03/26AAston Villa Vs WHU2-0
14/03/26HWHU Vs Manchester City1-1
04/03/26AFulham Vs WHU0-1
28/02/26ALiverpool Vs WHU5-2
21/02/26HWHU Vs Bournemouth0-0

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Newcastle
Newcastle
England: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWD1.34
HomeWDLLW1.68
AwayWLLLD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%52%24%
AVG goals3.023.242.80
Over 1.5 %78%92%64%
Over 2.5 %64%72%56%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.581.841.32
Conceded1.441.401.48
BTTS64%68%60%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners11.3611.8810.84
Cards4.084.483.68
West Ham
West Ham
England: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLL1.04
HomeDDWWL1.00
AwayLWLDL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%24%28%
AVG goals2.742.762.72
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %52%52%52%
Over 3.5 %26%32%20%
Scored1.181.241.12
Conceded1.561.521.60
BTTS54%60%48%
Clean Sheet18%12%24%
Corners10.3010.2410.36
Cards3.643.723.56

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArsenalArsenal3885
68%
2.2
7127+44
2.6
71%
53%
24%
9.1
42%
3.2
47%
21.3
47%
1280
5552255001.90.7
56%
2Manchester CityManchester City3878
61%
2.1
7735+42
2.9
87%
63%
21%
10.3
58%
3.9
63%
20.9
42%
1243
5421665352.00.9
60%
3Manchester UnitedManchester United3871
53%
1.9
6950+19
3.1
84%
63%
37%
9.7
53%
3.8
58%
21.2
47%
764
3621023001.81.3
52%
4Aston VillaAston Villa3865
50%
1.7
5649+7
2.8
74%
53%
29%
10.2
68%
3.9
61%
23.0
63%
583
2701681461.51.3
53%
5LiverpoolLiverpool3860
45%
1.6
6353+10
3.1
84%
61%
29%
10.5
55%
3.6
50%
20.7
37%
940
4902012481.71.4
59%
6BournemouthBournemouth3857
34%
1.5
5854+4
2.9
76%
55%
42%
10.9
63%
4.3
63%
22.5
53%
658
3531061991.51.4
50%
7SunderlandSunderland3854
37%
1.4
4248-6
2.4
71%
45%
18%
9.0
45%
4.1
55%
22.1
58%
415
1681081401.11.3
45%
8BrightonBrighton3853
37%
1.4
5246+6
2.6
82%
50%
18%
9.7
58%
4.3
63%
22.0
55%
592
1911762251.41.2
53%
9BrentfordBrentford3853
37%
1.4
5552+3
2.8
82%
53%
37%
10.2
63%
3.7
53%
19.6
34%
482
208891861.41.4
47%
10ChelseaChelsea3852
37%
1.4
5852+6
2.9
87%
66%
32%
10.4
68%
4.7
71%
23.4
68%
1114
4182674301.51.4
57%
11FulhamFulham3852
39%
1.4
4751-4
2.6
71%
50%
24%
10.5
66%
3.8
58%
20.8
39%
356
188381311.21.3
51%
12NewcastleNewcastle3849
37%
1.3
5355-2
2.8
76%
63%
34%
11.0
61%
4.2
61%
22.1
53%
696
2492491981.41.4
52%
13EvertonEverton3849
34%
1.3
4750-3
2.6
76%
45%
21%
9.4
42%
3.7
47%
21.7
58%
443
1941261231.21.3
44%
14LeedsLeeds3847
29%
1.2
4956-7
2.8
74%
55%
37%
9.5
53%
3.4
42%
21.7
47%
373
142981341.31.5
46%
15Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace3845
29%
1.2
4151-10
2.4
71%
55%
21%
9.4
47%
3.7
63%
20.2
37%
553
255932051.11.3
45%
16Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest3844
29%
1.2
4851-3
2.6
82%
53%
26%
10.1
58%
3.3
42%
22.2
53%
621
3011172031.31.3
46%
17TottenhamTottenham3841
26%
1.1
4857-9
2.8
82%
63%
26%
10.2
50%
4.7
71%
22.3
58%
713
2501772861.31.5
50%
18West HamWest Ham3839
26%
1.0
4665-19
2.9
87%
61%
29%
11.0
66%
3.8
55%
21.7
47%
449
1741121641.21.7
42%
19BurnleyBurnley3822
11%
0.6
3875-37
3.0
84%
50%
39%
9.6
53%
2.9
39%
19.5
37%
233
10048851.02.0
42%
20WolvesWolves3820
8%
0.5
2768-41
2.5
79%
45%
24%
9.4
58%
3.8
58%
23.8
66%
311
861111150.71.8
-
England: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →

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