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Newington Youth vs Ards Result & Analysis

Date: 04/10/2025
Time: 14:00
Final 0-3
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Vs
43%
26%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Newington Youth win✗ Miss
43.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ards win✓ Hit
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-442W00D23L23L12L41W00D42W10W30WA·BAL26/04A·QUE09/08H·LOU16/08A·H&W23/08A·ANN30/08H·BAL05/09A·LIM13/09A·ARM16/09A·INS20/09H·WAR27/09
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.601.851.381.651.76
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.411.711.331.831.451.64
vs Weaker (13)2.151.462.291.002.002.00
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L31W22D12L10W21W02L23L21W11DA·ANN26/04H·BAL09/08A·INS16/08H·ANN23/08H·DUN29/08A·H&W06/09A·WAR13/09H·QUE16/09H·ARM20/09A·LOU27/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.401.531.471.001.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.221.111.331.221.111.00
vs Weaker (12)1.331.831.831.830.831.83
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.0%
Under 2.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.6%
Under 3.5
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.7%
No
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.5%
1-0
6.5%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
0-0
5.6%
0-1
5.2%
Newington Youth goals ↓
Ards goals →
01234
05.6%5.2%4.4%2.1%0.7%
16.5%12%7.5%3.5%1.2%
26.5%9.1%6.4%3.0%1.1%
33.7%5.1%3.6%1.7%0.6%
41.6%2.2%1.5%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newington Youth goals (down), columns = Ards goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Limavady United
2.13
Annagh United
1.89
H&W Welders
1.74
Newington Youth
1.58
Institute
1.55
Queen's University
1.50
Loughgall
1.47
Ards
1.37
Warrenpoint Town
1.08
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Dundela
0.74
Armagh City
0.50
Newington Youth is 0.21 points better than Ards in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.37).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
H&W Welders
2.29
Newington Youth
2.03
Limavady United
1.82
Institute
1.55
Ards
1.47
Annagh United
1.45
Queen's University
1.34
Loughgall
1.32
Warrenpoint Town
1.18
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Dundela
1.13
Armagh City
0.79
Newington Youth is 0.55 goals better than Ards in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 1.47).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Limavady United
0.89
Loughgall
1.00
Annagh United
1.03
Queen's University
1.21
Institute
1.21
H&W Welders
1.26
Ards
1.34
Warrenpoint Town
1.39
Ballinamallard United
1.58
Newington Youth
1.63
Dundela
2.03
Armagh City
2.95
Newington Youth is 0.29 goals worse than Ards in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.34).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D11D02L01L20W00D22D00D10WA·BAL26/04A·QUE09/08H·LOU16/08A·H&W23/08A·ANN30/08H·BAL05/09A·LIM13/09A·ARM16/09A·INS20/09H·WAR27/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.830.690.620.651.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.530.760.500.830.550.73
vs Weaker (13)0.850.920.860.430.831.50
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L11D12L00D10W01L11D21W00DA·ANN26/04H·BAL09/08A·INS16/08H·ANN23/08H·DUN29/08A·H&W06/09A·WAR13/09H·QUE16/09H·ARM20/09A·LOU27/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.630.730.800.530.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.500.560.440.560.560.56
vs Weaker (12)0.830.751.171.170.500.33
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D12L21W11D21W00D20W10W20WA·BAL26/04A·QUE09/08H·LOU16/08A·H&W23/08A·ANN30/08H·BAL05/09A·LIM13/09A·ARM16/09A·INS20/09H·WAR27/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.771.150.771.000.76
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.880.940.831.000.910.91
vs Weaker (13)1.310.541.430.571.170.50
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W11D00D10W11D01L12L00D11DA·ANN26/04H·BAL09/08A·INS16/08H·ANN23/08H·DUN29/08A·H&W06/09A·WAR13/09H·QUE16/09H·ARM20/09A·LOU27/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.770.800.670.470.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.720.560.890.670.560.44
vs Weaker (12)0.501.080.670.670.331.50
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (5)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AC (2)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
NY wins
4
Draws
1
ARD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Newington Youth vs Ards · H/A from NY
DateH/AGameScore
22/02/25AArds Vs NY1-1
02/11/24HNY Vs Ards2-2
17/08/24AArds Vs NY3-2
13/04/24AArds Vs NY1-1
27/02/24HNY Vs Ards1-0
02/12/23HNY Vs Ards4-1
05/08/23AArds Vs NY1-3
14/03/23HNY Vs Ards2-2

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/25HNY Vs Warrenpoint Town3-0
20/09/25AInstitute Vs NY0-1
16/09/25AArmagh City Vs NY2-4
13/09/25ALimavady United Vs NY0-0
05/09/25HNY Vs Ballinamallard United4-1
30/08/25AAnnagh United Vs NY2-1
23/08/25AH&W Welders Vs NY3-2
16/08/25HNY Vs Loughgall2-3
09/08/25AQueen's University Vs NY0-0
26/04/25ABallyclare Comrades Vs NY2-4

ArdsArds

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/09/25ALoughgall Vs ARD1-1
20/09/25HARD Vs Armagh City2-1
16/09/25HARD Vs Queen's University2-3
13/09/25AWarrenpoint Town Vs ARD2-0
06/09/25AH&W Welders Vs ARD1-2
29/08/25HARD Vs Dundela1-0
23/08/25HARD Vs Annagh United1-2
16/08/25AInstitute Vs ARD2-2
09/08/25HARD Vs Ballinamallard United3-1
26/04/25AAnnagh United Vs ARD1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW1.20
HomeWWLWW1.39
AwayLLDWW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%39%26%
AVG goals3.363.133.56
Over 1.5 %80%83%78%
Over 2.5 %62%61%63%
Over 3.5 %50%39%59%
Scored1.501.571.44
Conceded1.861.572.11
BTTS60%52%67%
Clean Sheet24%30%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWD1.40
HomeWLWLW1.40
AwayLDWLD1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%40%36%
AVG goals3.022.963.08
Over 1.5 %74%76%72%
Over 2.5 %58%56%60%
Over 3.5 %48%44%52%
Scored1.541.481.60
Conceded1.481.481.48
BTTS58%64%52%
Clean Sheet22%20%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Limavady UnitedLimavady United3881
63%
2.1
6934+35
2.7
68%
47%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.9
-
2Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3872
58%
1.9
5539+16
2.5
71%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.0
-
3H&W WeldersH&W Welders3866
50%
1.7
8748+39
3.6
92%
76%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
4Newington YouthNewington Youth3860
47%
1.6
7762+15
3.7
87%
74%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
5InstituteInstitute3859
45%
1.6
5946+13
2.8
71%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6QueenQueen's University3857
39%
1.5
5146+5
2.6
76%
39%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
7LoughgallLoughgall3856
37%
1.5
5038+12
2.3
74%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
8ArdsArds3852
39%
1.4
5651+5
2.8
74%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town3841
29%
1.1
4553-8
2.6
58%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
10Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3838
24%
1.0
4460-16
2.7
68%
55%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
11DundelaDundela3828
13%
0.7
4377-34
3.2
89%
68%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12Armagh CityArmagh City3819
11%
0.5
30112-82
3.7
87%
71%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.9
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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