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Newington Youth vs Ards Prediction & Stats

Date: 10/10/2026
Time: 14:00
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Vs
41%
25%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Newington Youth’s recent three-game winning streak fuels optimism for a high-scoring encounter, while Ards’ return from two straight defeats suggests they may struggle to contain the hosts’ attack. The model favours a home win, with a 41% chance, a draw at 25%, and an away win at 34%. The expected total is 3.4 goals, centring on a 3-goal outcome that carries a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.7% chance.

Newington’s home form shows 2.0 goals for and 1.54 against against similar opposition, whereas Ards average 1.33 goals scored and 1.78 conceded on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.8%), Under 6.5 (94.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.6%), Under 5.5 (87.3%), Over 1.5 (86.0%), Home over 0.5 goals (83.0%), and Home +2 handicap (82.8%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Newington Youth win
41.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ards win
34.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W20W15L24L21W41W22D21W40W21WH·ANN27/03A·QUE04/04H·LIM11/04H·H&W18/04H·LOU24/04H·ANN08/08A·LOU11/08H·QUE15/08H·RAT22/08A·STR28/08
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.231.632.331.392.082.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.951.752.001.541.862.14
vs Weaker (10)2.801.403.201.002.401.80
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L21W13L10W31W22D31W12L03LA·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08H·DUN11/08A·WAR15/08H·LOU22/08H·QUE28/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.301.291.361.811.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.181.531.001.251.331.78
vs Weaker (13)2.081.001.671.502.430.57
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.0%
Under 1.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.6%
Under 2.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.3%
No
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
7.8%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.4%
3-1
5.1%
1-0
5.1%
0-1
4.5%
Newington Youth goals ↓
Ards goals →
01234
04.4%4.5%4.4%2.4%0.9%
15.1%11%7.8%4.2%1.7%
25.4%8.6%6.9%3.7%1.5%
33.2%5.1%4.1%2.2%0.9%
41.4%2.3%1.8%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newington Youth goals (down), columns = Ards goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Newington Youth is 1.20 points better than Ards in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 1.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Newington Youth is 1.00 goals better than Ards in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 1.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Newington Youth is 0.80 goals better than Ards in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.80).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Newington Youth or Draw
65.8%
Avg Implied -
41%
25%
34%
covers Newington Youth + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth or Ards
75.4%
Avg Implied -
41%
25%
34%
covers Newington Youth + Ards
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ards
58.8%
Avg Implied -
41%
25%
34%
covers Draw + Ards
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5
Over
83.0%
Under
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5
Over
26.2%
Under
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 3.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 0.5
Over
79.9%
Under
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5
Over
47.7%
Under
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 3.5
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Newington Youth, so a minus line means Newington Youth give that many goals of a start and Ards receive them. At -1, Newington Youth must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Newington Youth win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Newington Youth)
Newington Youth -2
9.7%
Draw -2
12.6%
Ards +2
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Newington Youth)
Newington Youth -1
22.3%
Draw -1
18.9%
Ards +1
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Newington Youth)
Newington Youth +1
65.8%
Draw +1
17.0%
Ards -1
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Newington Youth)
Newington Youth +2
82.8%
Draw +2
10.4%
Ards -2
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D12L11D11D21W21W20W30W11DH·ANN27/03A·QUE04/04H·LIM11/04H·H&W18/04H·LOU24/04H·ANN08/08A·LOU11/08H·QUE15/08H·RAT22/08A·STR28/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.771.390.670.580.92
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.900.801.080.770.570.86
vs Weaker (10)1.400.702.200.400.601.00
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L10W01L10W10W00D10W11D02LA·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08H·DUN11/08A·WAR15/08H·LOU22/08H·QUE28/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.470.500.500.880.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.530.590.500.500.560.67
vs Weaker (13)0.920.310.500.501.290.14
Clean sheet %67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W03L13L10W20W01L01L10W10WH·ANN27/03A·QUE04/04H·LIM11/04H·H&W18/04H·LOU24/04H·ANN08/08A·LOU11/08H·QUE15/08H·RAT22/08A·STR28/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.870.940.721.501.08
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.050.950.920.771.291.29
vs Weaker (10)1.400.701.000.601.800.80
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D11D12L00D21W22D21W01L01LA·BAL28/03H·DUN04/04H·ARM10/04A·INS18/04A·WAR25/04A·GLE08/08H·DUN11/08A·WAR15/08H·LOU22/08H·QUE28/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.830.790.860.940.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.650.940.500.750.781.11
vs Weaker (13)1.150.691.171.001.140.43
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.8%-------
Under 6.594.4%-------
Away under 3.5 goals92.0%-------
Home under 3.5 goals89.6%-------
Under 5.587.3%-------
Over 1.586.0%-------
Home over 0.5 goals83.0%-------
Home +2 handicap82.8%-------
Away over 0.5 goals79.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals78.2%-------
Away +2 handicap77.7%-------
Home or Away75.4%-------
Under 4.574.8%-------
Home under 2.5 goals73.8%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
NY wins
3
Draws
3
ARD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Newington Youth vs Ards · H/A from NY
DateH/AGameScore
03/02/26AArds Vs NY2-1
17/01/26HNY Vs Ards2-0
04/10/25HNY Vs Ards0-3
22/02/25AArds Vs NY1-1
02/11/24HNY Vs Ards2-2
17/08/24AArds Vs NY3-2
13/04/24AArds Vs NY1-1
27/02/24HNY Vs Ards1-0

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26AStrabane Athletic Vs NY1-2
22/08/26HNY Vs Rathfriland4-0
15/08/26HNY Vs Queen's University2-1
11/08/26ALoughgall Vs NY2-2
08/08/26HNY Vs Annagh United4-1
24/04/26HNY Vs Loughgall2-1
18/04/26HNY Vs H&W Welders2-4
11/04/26HNY Vs Limavady United1-5
04/04/26AQueen's University Vs NY0-2
27/03/26HNY Vs Annagh United1-0

ArdsArds

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HARD Vs Queen's University0-3
22/08/26HARD Vs Loughgall1-2
15/08/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs ARD1-3
11/08/26HARD Vs Dundela2-2
08/08/26AGlenavon FC Vs ARD1-3
25/04/26AWarrenpoint Town Vs ARD0-1
18/04/26AInstitute Vs ARD3-1
10/04/26HARD Vs Armagh City2-1
04/04/26HARD Vs Dundela0-1
28/03/26ABallinamallard United Vs ARD0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW1.80
HomeLWWWW2.23
AwayLWWDW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%73%33%
AVG goals3.803.813.79
Over 1.5 %90%96%83%
Over 2.5 %78%77%79%
Over 3.5 %54%54%54%
Scored2.222.422.00
Conceded1.581.381.79
BTTS68%58%79%
Clean Sheet28%38%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLL1.34
HomeLWDLL1.33
AwayWLWWW1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%38%38%
AVG goals2.983.082.88
Over 1.5 %76%83%69%
Over 2.5 %60%71%50%
Over 3.5 %38%33%42%
Scored1.521.421.62
Conceded1.461.671.27
BTTS58%67%50%
Clean Sheet20%21%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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