PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Newington Youth vs Ballinamallard United Result & Analysis

Date: 28/10/2022
Time: 18:45
Final 3-4
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Vs
46%
24%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model sees a high-scoring affair, with an average of 3.4 goals expected and a 22% chance that the total will hit exactly three. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 10.7% probability, reflecting the balanced attack and defense projected for both sides. Newington Youth are favoured to win at 46%, with a 24% chance of a draw and a 30% chance that Ballinamallard United will take the win. The home side’s scoring and conceding figures at home are not supplied, while Ballinamallard United, playing away against a stronger opponent, average 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selection includes an 85.7% chance that the match will see over 1.5 goals, a hit in the last run. Recent form shows Newington on a three-game winning streak, whereas Ballinamallard come off a defeat. The predicted outcome is a home win, though the final result will be decided on the pitch.

Results analysis

The upset came early as Ballinamallard United snatched a 3-4 victory, extending their recent form into a win after a defeat. The pre-match favourite, Newington Youth, had a 46% chance of triumph, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 85.7% probability, hit the mark. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 10.7%, yet the match finished 3-4. Newington’s 46% chance of a home win was not realised, while Ballinamallard’s 30% chance of an away win proved correct. The final score of 3-4 confirmed the away win.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Newington Youth win✗ Miss
46.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United win✓ Hit
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-541W11D33D01L14L52W12L12L10WH·DER13/08A·BAL20/08H·INS23/08A·KNO27/08H·ANN03/09H·BAL17/09A·LOU23/09A·DUN01/10A·H&W08/10
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.891.783.252.500.801.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)2.502.333.252.501.002.00
vs Weaker (3)0.670.67--0.670.67
Clean sheet %11% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D11D12L41W10W21W03L03L21WH·NEW20/08H·DER23/08A·INS27/08H·DUN03/09H·ARD17/09A·H&W23/09A·KNO01/10H·ANN08/10A·LOU15/10H·INS22/10
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.091.181.331.330.801.00
vs Stronger (11)1.091.181.331.330.801.00
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.7%
Under 1.5
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.1%
Under 2.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.1%
Under 3.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.3%
No
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.2%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
5.7%
1-0
5.6%
0-0
4.5%
Newington Youth goals ↓
Ballinamallard United goals →
01234
04.5%4.2%3.8%1.9%0.7%
15.6%11%7.2%3.5%1.3%
26.2%9.1%6.7%3.3%1.2%
33.8%5.7%4.2%2.1%0.8%
41.8%2.7%2.0%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newington Youth goals (down), columns = Ballinamallard United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Loughgall
2.03
Warrenpoint Town
1.87
Annagh United
1.55
Dundela
1.53
Ards
1.47
Ballyclare Comrades
1.45
H&W Welders
1.45
Ballinamallard United
1.37
Dergview
1.08
Newington Youth
1.05
Knockbreda
1.00
Institute
1.00
Ballymacash Rangers
0.50
Newington Youth is 0.32 points worse than Ballinamallard United in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.37).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Loughgall
1.97
Ards
1.89
H&W Welders
1.82
Warrenpoint Town
1.76
Ballyclare Comrades
1.74
Newington Youth
1.61
Annagh United
1.53
Dundela
1.50
Dergview
1.34
Knockbreda
1.32
Ballinamallard United
1.32
Institute
1.32
Ballymacash Rangers
1.00
Newington Youth is 0.29 goals better than Ballinamallard United in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.32).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Loughgall
0.66
Annagh United
1.13
Warrenpoint Town
1.16
Dundela
1.53
Ballinamallard United
1.55
Institute
1.66
Ballyclare Comrades
1.66
H&W Welders
1.71
Dergview
1.79
Ards
1.97
Newington Youth
1.97
Ballymacash Rangers
2.00
Knockbreda
2.23
Newington Youth is 0.42 goals worse than Ballinamallard United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.55).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W11D13L00D11D21W11D10W10WH·DER13/08A·BAL20/08H·INS23/08A·KNO27/08H·ANN03/09H·BAL17/09A·LOU23/09A·DUN01/10A·H&W08/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.220.891.751.500.800.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.501.171.751.501.000.50
vs Weaker (3)0.670.33--0.670.33
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D00D11D11D00D11D01L02L00DH·NEW20/08H·DER23/08A·INS27/08H·DUN03/09H·ARD17/09A·H&W23/09A·KNO01/10H·ANN08/10A·LOU15/10H·INS22/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.360.640.500.670.200.60
vs Stronger (11)0.360.640.500.670.200.60
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %45% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D20W01L03L31W01L02L00DH·DER13/08A·BAL20/08H·INS23/08A·KNO27/08H·ANN03/09H·BAL17/09A·LOU23/09A·DUN01/10A·H&W08/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.891.501.000.000.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.001.171.501.000.001.50
vs Weaker (3)0.000.33--0.000.33
Clean sheet %44% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D01L30W10W10W02L01L21WH·NEW20/08H·DER23/08A·INS27/08H·DUN03/09H·ARD17/09A·H&W23/09A·KNO01/10H·ANN08/10A·LOU15/10H·INS22/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.550.830.670.600.40
vs Stronger (11)0.730.550.830.670.600.40
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %55% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
NY wins
1
Draws
0
BU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Newington Youth vs Ballinamallard United · H/A from NY
DateH/AGameScore
20/08/22ABallinamallard United Vs NY1-1

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/10/22AH&W Welders Vs NY0-1
01/10/22ADundela Vs NY2-1
23/09/22ALoughgall Vs NY2-1
17/09/22HNY Vs Ballyclare Comrades5-2
03/09/22HNY Vs Annagh United1-4
27/08/22AKnockbreda Vs NY1-0
23/08/22HNY Vs Institute3-3
20/08/22ABallinamallard United Vs NY1-1
13/08/22HNY Vs Dergview4-1

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/10/22HBU Vs Institute2-1
15/10/22ALoughgall Vs BU3-0
08/10/22HBU Vs Annagh United0-3
01/10/22AKnockbreda Vs BU1-2
23/09/22AH&W Welders Vs BU0-1
17/09/22HBU Vs Ards4-1
03/09/22HBU Vs Dundela1-2
27/08/22AInstitute Vs BU1-1
23/08/22HBU Vs Dergview0-0
20/08/22HBU Vs Newington Youth1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLW1.22
HomeWDLW1.75
AwayDLLLW0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%50%20%
AVG goals3.675.752.00
Over 1.5 %78%100%60%
Over 2.5 %67%100%40%
Over 3.5 %44%100%0%
Scored1.893.250.80
Conceded1.782.501.20
BTTS78%100%60%
Clean Sheet11%0%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLW1.45
HomeDLWLW1.33
AwayDDWWL1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%33%40%
AVG goals2.272.671.80
Over 1.5 %73%83%60%
Over 2.5 %55%67%40%
Over 3.5 %9%17%0%
Scored1.091.330.80
Conceded1.181.331.00
BTTS55%67%40%
Clean Sheet27%17%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LoughgallLoughgall3877
61%
2.0
7525+50
2.6
71%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
2Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town3871
55%
1.9
6744+23
2.9
84%
53%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
3Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3859
45%
1.6
5843+15
2.7
84%
63%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
4DundelaDundela3858
47%
1.5
5758-1
3.0
74%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
5ArdsArds3856
45%
1.5
7275-3
3.9
89%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.92.0
-
6H&W WeldersH&W Welders3855
45%
1.4
6965+4
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
7Ballyclare ComradesBallyclare Comrades3855
37%
1.4
6663+3
3.4
84%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.7
-
8Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3852
37%
1.4
5059-9
2.9
84%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
9DergviewDergview3841
29%
1.1
5168-17
3.1
82%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
10Newington YouthNewington Youth3840
29%
1.1
6175-14
3.6
89%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.0
-
11KnockbredaKnockbreda4040
25%
1.0
5389-36
3.5
85%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.2
-
12InstituteInstitute3838
26%
1.0
5063-13
3.0
82%
45%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
13Ballymacash RangersBallymacash Rangers21
0%
0.5
24-2
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches