Newington Youth’s recent three-game winning streak has them looking confident at home, yet the model still favours an away win for Ballinamallard United, who have a 45% chance of triumph against a weaker opponent. The expected total of 3.6 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being three goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.9% probability. Newington Youth average one goal scored and 2.5 conceded at home against weaker teams, while Ballinamallard United average 1.29 scored and 1.86 conceded on the road against stronger sides. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, carries an 87.8% chance. Home win probability stands at 31%, draw at 24%, and away win at 45%. Each of these percentages is explicitly stated, and the Over 1.5 pick is the only suggested selection presented.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Ballinamallard United, failed to deliver. Newington Youth, riding a three-game winning run, turned the tables and won 4-1. The model had picked an away win with a 45% probability, but that call was wrong. Its single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals at 87.8%, hit as the match produced four goals. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 9.9%, followed by 1-2 at 8.7% and 2-1 at 7.2%. The final result was a home win, contradicting the model’s favourite prediction.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Newington Youth win✓ Hit
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United win✗ Miss
44.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Newington Youth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
2.07
1.43
2.57
1.19
1.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.42
2.21
1.75
2.62
1.18
1.91
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
1.82
1.00
2.50
1.20
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ballinamallard United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.63
1.50
1.43
1.25
1.81
vs Stronger (27)
1.41
1.67
1.54
1.46
1.29
1.86
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.8%
Under 1.5
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.9%
Under 2.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.4%
Under 3.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.4%
No
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
7.2%
2-2
7.0%
1-3
5.6%
0-2
5.4%
0-1
4.7%
2-3
4.5%
Newington Youth goals ↓
Ballinamallard United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
4.7%
5.4%
3.5%
1.7%
1
3.7%
9.9%
8.7%
5.6%
2.7%
2
3.7%
7.2%
7.0%
4.5%
2.2%
3
2.0%
3.9%
3.8%
2.4%
1.2%
4
0.8%
1.6%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newington Youth goals (down), columns = Ballinamallard United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Loughgall
2.03
Warrenpoint Town
1.87
Annagh United
1.55
Dundela
1.53
Ards
1.47
Ballyclare Comrades
1.45
H&W Welders
1.45
Ballinamallard United
1.37
Dergview
1.08
Newington Youth
1.05
Knockbreda
1.00
Institute
1.00
Ballymacash Rangers
0.50
Newington Youth is 0.32 points worse than Ballinamallard United in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Loughgall
1.97
Ards
1.89
H&W Welders
1.82
Warrenpoint Town
1.76
Ballyclare Comrades
1.74
Newington Youth
1.61
Annagh United
1.53
Dundela
1.50
Dergview
1.34
Knockbreda
1.32
Ballinamallard United
1.32
Institute
1.32
Ballymacash Rangers
1.00
Newington Youth is 0.29 goals better than Ballinamallard United in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Loughgall
0.66
Annagh United
1.13
Warrenpoint Town
1.16
Dundela
1.53
Ballinamallard United
1.55
Institute
1.66
Ballyclare Comrades
1.66
H&W Welders
1.71
Dergview
1.79
Ards
1.97
Newington Youth
1.97
Ballymacash Rangers
2.00
Knockbreda
2.23
Newington Youth is 0.42 goals worse than Ballinamallard United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.55).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Newington Youth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.10
0.67
1.33
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.75
1.25
0.78
1.56
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ballinamallard United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.43
0.64
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (27)
0.48
0.89
0.46
0.69
0.50
1.07
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Newington Youth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.07
0.87
1.27
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.75
1.00
1.11
1.11
0.45
0.91
vs Weaker (10)
0.30
1.20
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ballinamallard United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.80
1.07
0.79
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (27)
0.93
0.78
1.08
0.77
0.79
0.79
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Loughgall
Warrenpoint Town
Annagh United
Dundela
Ards
H&W Welders
Ballyclare Comrades
Dergview
Knockbreda
Institute
Ballymacash Rangers