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Newington Youth vs Ballinamallard United Result & Analysis

Date: 30/09/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 1-3
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Vs
51%
23%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Newington Youth’s recent three-game winning streak fuels optimism, yet Ballinamallard United’s return from a defeat suggests a resilient comeback. The model favours a home win, with a 51% chance, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 26% chance of an away win. The expected total of 3.5 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10% probability. Newington, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, while Ballinamallard, away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.15 goals scored and 2.08 conceded. The model’s selection includes an Over 1.5 with an 87% probability. The match is projected to be a 1-1 draw, but the odds lean toward a home victory. The overall probabilities remain 51% for a home win, 23% for a draw, and 26% for an away win.

Results analysis

Newington Youth finished 1-3 against Ballinamallard United (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 51% home win, 23% draw and 26% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (87%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Newington Youth win✗ Miss
50.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United win✓ Hit
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W31W31W02L31W20W30W32W31W12LA·INS22/04H·DER29/04A·ARD05/08H·H&W12/08A·INS19/08H·KNO26/08A·ANN02/09H·DER09/09H·DUN16/09A·BAN23/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.671.731.801.671.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.781.502.291.861.451.27
vs Weaker (12)1.581.921.251.752.252.25
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W01L24L42W30W12L12L03L01L02LH·H&W22/04H·INS29/04A·H&W05/08H·DER12/08H·KNO19/08A·DUN26/08A·BAL02/09H·BAN09/09H·INS16/09A·POR23/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.701.691.381.142.07
vs Stronger (28)1.461.711.731.401.152.08
vs Similar (2)1.001.501.001.001.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.0%
Under 1.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.4%
Under 2.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.7%
Under 3.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.1%
No
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.2%
2-2
6.6%
1-2
6.5%
2-0
6.4%
3-1
6.3%
1-0
5.4%
3-2
4.5%
Newington Youth goals ↓
Ballinamallard United goals →
01234
04.0%3.5%3.2%1.5%0.5%
15.4%10.0%6.5%3.1%1.1%
26.4%9.2%6.6%3.2%1.1%
34.4%6.3%4.5%2.2%0.8%
42.2%3.2%2.3%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newington Youth goals (down), columns = Ballinamallard United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Portadown
1.87
Institute
1.82
Annagh United
1.79
Bangor
1.79
Dundela
1.76
Ballyclare Comrades
1.61
H&W Welders
1.47
Newington Youth
1.37
Ballinamallard United
1.34
Armagh City
1.00
Ards
0.97
Dergview
0.72
Knockbreda
0.47
Newington Youth is 0.03 points better than Ballinamallard United in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.34).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bangor
2.03
Dundela
1.95
Portadown
1.95
Ballyclare Comrades
1.92
H&W Welders
1.84
Newington Youth
1.71
Annagh United
1.61
Ards
1.58
Institute
1.58
Ballinamallard United
1.34
Dergview
1.07
Armagh City
1.00
Knockbreda
0.89
Newington Youth is 0.37 goals better than Ballinamallard United in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.34).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Armagh City
1.00
Institute
1.13
Bangor
1.16
Annagh United
1.32
Ballinamallard United
1.34
Portadown
1.39
Dundela
1.58
Ballyclare Comrades
1.58
H&W Welders
1.66
Newington Youth
1.79
Ards
1.82
Dergview
2.02
Knockbreda
2.63
Newington Youth is 0.45 goals worse than Ballinamallard United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.34).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W21W01L31W00D20W12L31W11DA·INS22/04H·DER29/04A·ARD05/08H·H&W12/08A·INS19/08H·KNO26/08A·ANN02/09H·DER09/09H·DUN16/09A·BAN23/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.930.620.941.070.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.000.941.141.140.910.82
vs Weaker (12)0.580.920.220.781.671.33
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L10W11D20W02L01L01L00D00DH·H&W22/04H·INS29/04A·H&W05/08H·DER12/08H·KNO19/08A·DUN26/08A·BAL02/09H·BAN09/09H·INS16/09A·POR23/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.670.560.620.500.71
vs Stronger (28)0.540.710.600.670.460.77
vs Similar (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W21W10W01L00D20W10W20W00D01LA·INS22/04H·DER29/04A·ARD05/08H·H&W12/08A·INS19/08H·KNO26/08A·ANN02/09H·DER09/09H·DUN16/09A·BAN23/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.771.000.810.500.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.780.561.140.710.550.45
vs Weaker (12)0.751.080.890.890.331.67
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D14L31W10W10W11D02L01L02LH·H&W22/04H·INS29/04A·H&W05/08H·DER12/08H·KNO19/08A·DUN26/08A·BAL02/09H·BAN09/09H·INS16/09A·POR23/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.031.120.750.641.36
vs Stronger (28)0.931.001.130.730.691.31
vs Similar (2)0.501.501.001.000.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
POR (6)
€1m
BAN (4)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (5)
€1m
POR (3)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (11)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
NY wins
2
Draws
1
BU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Newington Youth vs Ballinamallard United · H/A from NY
DateH/AGameScore
08/04/23HNY Vs Ballinamallard United4-1
18/03/23ABallinamallard United Vs NY2-2
28/10/22HNY Vs Ballinamallard United3-4
20/08/22ABallinamallard United Vs NY1-1

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/23ABangor Vs NY2-1
16/09/23HNY Vs Dundela3-1
09/09/23HNY Vs Dergview3-2
02/09/23AAnnagh United Vs NY0-3
26/08/23HNY Vs Knockbreda2-0
19/08/23AInstitute Vs NY1-3
12/08/23HNY Vs H&W Welders0-2
05/08/23AArds Vs NY1-3
29/04/23HNY Vs Dergview3-1
22/04/23AInstitute Vs NY0-2

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/23APortadown Vs BU2-0
16/09/23HBU Vs Institute0-1
09/09/23HBU Vs Bangor0-3
02/09/23ABallyclare Comrades Vs BU2-1
26/08/23ADundela Vs BU2-1
19/08/23HBU Vs Knockbreda3-0
12/08/23HBU Vs Dergview4-2
05/08/23AH&W Welders Vs BU4-2
29/04/23HBU Vs Institute0-1
22/04/23HBU Vs H&W Welders3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 8 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL1.26
HomeWLWWW1.22
AwayWWWWL1.30
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %37%35%39%
AVG goals3.543.963.13
Over 1.5 %91%96%87%
Over 2.5 %70%74%65%
Over 3.5 %43%61%26%
Scored1.721.871.57
Conceded1.832.091.57
BTTS65%74%57%
Clean Sheet13%4%22%
Corners---
Cards---
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.26
HomeLWWLL1.57
AwayLLLLL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%43%26%
AVG goals2.962.913.00
Over 1.5 %85%83%87%
Over 2.5 %59%61%57%
Over 3.5 %30%30%30%
Scored1.331.571.09
Conceded1.631.351.91
BTTS59%61%57%
Clean Sheet17%17%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PortadownPortadown3871
58%
1.9
7453+21
3.3
87%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.91.4
-
2InstituteInstitute3869
53%
1.8
6043+17
2.7
71%
50%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
3BangorBangor3868
53%
1.8
7744+33
3.2
87%
76%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.01.2
-
4Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3868
53%
1.8
6150+11
2.9
74%
55%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
5DundelaDundela3867
55%
1.8
7460+14
3.5
82%
71%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
6Ballyclare ComradesBallyclare Comrades3861
47%
1.6
7360+13
3.5
89%
76%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
7H&W WeldersH&W Welders3856
45%
1.5
7063+7
3.5
89%
76%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Newington YouthNewington Youth3852
42%
1.4
6568-3
3.5
97%
76%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.8
-
9Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3851
39%
1.3
5151+0
2.7
71%
58%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
10ArdsArds3837
24%
1.0
6069-9
3.4
84%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
11DergviewDergview4029
15%
0.7
4381-38
3.1
85%
57%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12KnockbredaKnockbreda3818
13%
0.5
34100-66
3.5
95%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.6
-
13Armagh CityArmagh City22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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