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Newington Youth vs Ballinamallard United Prediction & Stats

Date: 26/09/2026
Time: 14:00
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Vs
73%
17%
10%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Newington Youth are the clear favourites, the model giving them a 74% chance of victory and a 16% chance of a draw versus Ballinamallard United’s 10% win probability. The home side’s recent form, a 2-game winning streak and a 4-0 win over Rathfriland, underpins this rating, especially as they play at home against an opponent that is weaker in the league. Their average of 3.2 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded at home contrasts sharply with Ballinamallard’s 1.25 goals scored and 1.92 conceded away against stronger opposition. The model expects an average of 3.6 goals, with the most likely total being 3, and the single most probable scoreline is 2-0, which carries a 9.6% chance. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 7.5 (96.8%), Home +2 handicap (96.6%), Home over 0.5 goals (93.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.0%), Under 6.5 (92.4%), Home or Draw (90.0%) and Home +1 handicap (90.0%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Newington Youth win
72.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United win
10.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W20W15L24L21W41W22D21W40W21WH·ANN27/03A·QUE04/04H·LIM11/04H·H&W18/04H·LOU24/04H·ANN08/08A·LOU11/08H·QUE15/08H·RAT22/08A·STR28/08
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.231.632.331.392.082.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.951.752.001.541.862.14
vs Weaker (10)2.801.403.201.002.401.80
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L03L01L60W22D01L21W02L21W13LH·ARD28/03A·INS11/04H·WAR18/04H·ARM21/04H·DUN25/04H·NEW08/08A·INS11/08A·MOY15/08H·DUN22/08H·ANN29/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.471.191.441.291.50
vs Stronger (24)1.171.581.001.381.361.82
vs Similar (6)1.501.002.001.671.000.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.1%
Under 1.5
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.7%
Under 2.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
48.5%
Under 3.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.6%
2-1
9.1%
3-0
8.5%
3-1
8.1%
1-1
7.6%
1-0
6.6%
4-0
5.6%
4-1
5.3%
Newington Youth goals ↓
Ballinamallard United goals →
01234
03.4%1.9%1.2%0.4%0.1%
16.6%7.6%3.3%1.0%0.2%
29.6%9.1%4.3%1.4%0.3%
38.5%8.1%3.8%1.2%0.3%
45.6%5.3%2.5%0.8%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newington Youth goals (down), columns = Ballinamallard United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Newington Youth is 1.40 points better than Ballinamallard United in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 1.20).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Newington Youth is 1.80 goals better than Ballinamallard United in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Newington Youth is 0.60 goals better than Ballinamallard United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.60).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Newington Youth or Draw
89.6%
Avg Implied -
73%
17%
10%
covers Newington Youth + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth or Ballinamallard United
83.3%
Avg Implied -
73%
17%
10%
covers Newington Youth + Ballinamallard United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ballinamallard United
27.1%
Avg Implied -
73%
17%
10%
covers Draw + Ballinamallard United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5
Over
92.9%
Under
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5
Over
74.2%
Under
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5
Over
49.4%
Under
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 3.5
Over
27.5%
Under
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5
Over
61.3%
Under
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5
Over
24.6%
Under
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Newington Youth, so a minus line means Newington Youth give that many goals of a start and Ballinamallard United receive them. At -1, Newington Youth must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Newington Youth win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Newington Youth)
Newington Youth -2
31.8%
Draw -2
20.7%
Ballinamallard United +2
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Newington Youth)
Newington Youth -1
52.5%
Draw -1
20.4%
Ballinamallard United +1
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Newington Youth)
Newington Youth +1
89.6%
Draw +1
6.9%
Ballinamallard United -1
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Newington Youth)
Newington Youth +2
96.5%
Draw +2
2.7%
Ballinamallard United -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D12L11D11D21W21W20W30W11DH·ANN27/03A·QUE04/04H·LIM11/04H·H&W18/04H·LOU24/04H·ANN08/08A·LOU11/08H·QUE15/08H·RAT22/08A·STR28/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.771.390.670.580.92
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.900.801.080.770.570.86
vs Weaker (10)1.400.702.200.400.601.00
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L03L01L20W01L00D00D00D11D11DH·ARD28/03A·INS11/04H·WAR18/04H·ARM21/04H·DUN25/04H·NEW08/08A·INS11/08A·MOY15/08H·DUN22/08H·ANN29/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.670.440.560.290.79
vs Stronger (24)0.380.670.380.460.360.91
vs Similar (6)0.330.670.671.000.000.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W03L13L10W20W01L01L10W10WH·ANN27/03A·QUE04/04H·LIM11/04H·H&W18/04H·LOU24/04H·ANN08/08A·LOU11/08H·QUE15/08H·RAT22/08A·STR28/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.870.940.721.501.08
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.050.950.920.771.291.29
vs Weaker (10)1.400.701.000.601.800.80
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D00D40W21W01L21W02L10W02LH·ARD28/03A·INS11/04H·WAR18/04H·ARM21/04H·DUN25/04H·NEW08/08A·INS11/08A·MOY15/08H·DUN22/08H·ANN29/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.800.750.881.000.71
vs Stronger (24)0.790.920.620.921.000.91
vs Similar (6)1.170.331.330.671.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Away under 3.5 goals98.4%-------
Under 7.596.9%-------
Home +2 handicap96.5%-------
Home over 0.5 goals92.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals92.9%-------
Under 6.592.7%-------
Home or Draw89.6%-------
Home +1 handicap89.6%-------
Over 1.588.1%-------
Under 5.584.4%-------
Home or Away83.3%-------
Away under 1.5 goals75.4%-------
Home over 1.5 goals74.2%-------
Home win72.9%-------
Home under 3.5 goals72.5%-------
Under 4.570.6%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
NY wins
1
Draws
3
BU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Newington Youth vs Ballinamallard United · H/A from NY
DateH/AGameScore
21/03/26HNY Vs Ballinamallard United4-0
21/11/25ABallinamallard United Vs NY3-3
05/09/25HNY Vs Ballinamallard United4-1
12/04/25HNY Vs Ballinamallard United2-1
18/02/25ABallinamallard United Vs NY3-2
23/11/24HNY Vs Ballinamallard United1-0
07/09/24ABallinamallard United Vs NY4-1
06/04/24ABallinamallard United Vs NY3-1

Newington YouthNewington Youth

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26AStrabane Athletic Vs NY1-2
22/08/26HNY Vs Rathfriland4-0
15/08/26HNY Vs Queen's University2-1
11/08/26ALoughgall Vs NY2-2
08/08/26HNY Vs Annagh United4-1
24/04/26HNY Vs Loughgall2-1
18/04/26HNY Vs H&W Welders2-4
11/04/26HNY Vs Limavady United1-5
04/04/26AQueen's University Vs NY0-2
27/03/26HNY Vs Annagh United1-0

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HBU Vs Annagh United1-3
22/08/26HBU Vs Dundela2-1
15/08/26AMoyola Park Vs BU2-0
11/08/26AInstitute Vs BU1-2
08/08/26HBU Vs Newry City AFC0-1
25/04/26HBU Vs Dundela2-2
21/04/26HBU Vs Armagh City6-0
18/04/26HBU Vs Warrenpoint Town0-1
11/04/26AInstitute Vs BU3-0
28/03/26HBU Vs Ards0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Newington Youth
Newington Youth
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW1.80
HomeLWWWW2.23
AwayLWWDW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%73%33%
AVG goals3.803.813.79
Over 1.5 %90%96%83%
Over 2.5 %78%77%79%
Over 3.5 %54%54%54%
Scored2.222.422.00
Conceded1.581.381.79
BTTS68%58%79%
Clean Sheet28%38%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.08
HomeWDLWL1.28
AwayDLLWL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals2.662.482.84
Over 1.5 %70%68%72%
Over 2.5 %54%40%68%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.141.241.04
Conceded1.521.241.80
BTTS44%44%44%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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