Newington Youth’s recent 4-0 demolition of Rathfriland and a 2-game winning streak suggest an attacking surge that will likely produce the 3.6 goals forecasted for this encounter. The model favours a home win, with a 60 % chance, a 21 % chance of a draw, and a 19 % chance of a Dundela victory. The most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Newington Youth, carrying a 9.4 % probability. Newington’s home form shows 2.0 goals scored and 1.58 conceded against similar opposition, while Dundela’s away numbers are 1.12 scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (96.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0 %), Under 6.5 (92.7 %), Home +2 handicap (92.2 %), Home over 0.5 goals (90.3 %), Over 1.5 (88.2 %), Away under 2.5 goals (86.5 %), and Under 5.5 (84.5 %). These picks reflect the expected high-scoring, home-dominant outcome.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Newington Youth win
62.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dundela win
17.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Newington Youth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.63
2.33
1.39
2.08
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.95
1.75
2.00
1.54
1.86
2.14
vs Weaker (10)
2.80
1.40
3.20
1.00
2.40
1.80
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.97
1.29
1.93
1.19
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.81
1.14
2.14
1.11
1.56
vs Weaker (14)
1.36
2.14
1.43
1.71
1.29
2.57
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.6%
Under 1.5
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.6%
Under 2.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
47.2%
Under 3.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.9%
No
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.5%
1-1
9.0%
2-0
8.0%
3-1
7.4%
3-0
6.2%
1-0
6.0%
2-2
5.7%
1-2
4.9%
Newington Youth goals ↓
Dundela goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
2.7%
2.1%
0.8%
0.3%
1
6.0%
9.0%
4.9%
2.0%
0.6%
2
8.0%
9.5%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
6.2%
7.4%
4.5%
1.8%
0.5%
4
3.6%
4.4%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newington Youth goals (down), columns = Dundela goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Newington Youth is 2.00 points better than Dundela in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Newington Youth is 1.40 goals better than Dundela in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Newington Youth is 1.00 goals better than Dundela in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Newington Youth or Draw
82.5%
Avg Implied -
62%
21%
17%
covers Newington Youth + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth or Dundela
79.5%
Avg Implied -
62%
21%
17%
covers Newington Youth + Dundela
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dundela
38.0%
Avg Implied -
62%
21%
17%
covers Draw + Dundela
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5
Over
90.4%
Under
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5
Over
67.8%
Under
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 3.5
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 0.5
Over
69.8%
Under
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 1.5
Over
33.7%
Under
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 2.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Newington Youth, so a minus line means Newington Youth give that many goals of a start and Dundela receive them. At -1, Newington Youth must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Newington Youth win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Newington Youth)
Newington Youth -2
22.3%
Draw -2
18.5%
Dundela +2
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Newington Youth)
Newington Youth -1
40.8%
Draw -1
21.2%
Dundela +1
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Newington Youth)
Newington Youth +1
82.5%
Draw +1
10.4%
Dundela -1
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Newington Youth)
Newington Youth +2
93.0%
Draw +2
4.9%
Dundela -2
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Newington Youth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.77
1.39
0.67
0.58
0.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.80
1.08
0.77
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
0.70
2.20
0.40
0.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.71
0.57
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.69
0.57
1.00
0.22
0.44
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
0.71
0.86
0.14
0.57
1.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.1%
Under 0.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.5%
Under 1.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.1%
Under 2.5
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 HT
Over
61.8%
Under
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 HT
Over
24.6%
Under
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.2%
Under
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Newington Youth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.87
0.94
0.72
1.50
1.08
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.05
0.95
0.92
0.77
1.29
1.29
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
0.70
1.00
0.60
1.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundela) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.27
0.57
1.36
0.81
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.75
1.12
0.57
1.14
0.89
1.11
vs Weaker (14)
0.64
1.43
0.57
1.57
0.71
1.29
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.1%
Under 0.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.4%
Under 1.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.7%
Under 2.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 2H
Over
68.3%
Under
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 2H
Over
33.1%
Under
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 2H
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundela over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →